Polling has been trending downward and Trump is concerned about his MAGA base. Talking about altering elections, perhaps claiming a national emergency. In the months in between conservative forces will try to control who can vote. The Texas gerrymandering may backfire as it has been pointed out many Texas Republican districts have been weakened. Some of their efforts might create heavy protests and even the Supreme Court might rebel against anti democratic efforts. Never admit mistakes has been a major part of Trump's strategy.
From February of 2026 it seems unlikely he can be ousted, but almost
every Republican up for re-election will have some difficult decisions:
retire, seek other employment, change their policy votes and public
statements or maybe just hang in there to grab what power might be
available? Might there be a scramble to take advantage of new opportunities? There will always be opportunities for ambitious people, especially if they have low morals. See http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2022/07/trump-as-tool.html
At the moment it would take only a few Republicans to stymie some of Trump's wishes, but they fear repercussions. International leaders are trying to align themselves to soften the blows and perhaps force a few retreats. If Republican legislators wait too long for decisive action they further increase the risk of losing and further tainting their reputation. It does seem likely the House of Representatives will cut Trump's power significantly.
Depending on how the Senate midterms turn out, impeachment may be realistic or some other legal remedy. What will the remaining Republican legislators do? What about all the Trump appointees? He has appointed countless people based on loyalty, to positions that affect everyone. His influence will linger until after he is removed from office.
Notwithstanding unforeseen events it seems likely the Democrats will take over in 2028. They have their own agenda, but part will be to undo much of the Trump agenda.
How will Democrats approach the future? In 2024 I thought Kamala Harris was the best candidate, period. She didn't win, and many Democrats will rule her out because of race and gender. (see http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2024/09/the-choice.html Gavin Newsom, another prospect from California is handsome and articulate. Pete Buttigieg with his intelligence and demeanor would be ideal, but unlikely to get a real chance. Part of the harm done by Trump has been his selection of advisors (or really executors) based on loyalty. Democrats have a history of choosing on merit and diversity of opinion and have a lot of possible suitable advisors.
A couple of issues to deal with.
War: There are a number of sore spots such as Ukraine, Venezuela, Cuba, Greenland, Europe, Iran, Palestine, China, India and of course Canada. Americans will realize they are stronger when they get along with the rest of the world. Putin is proving to be a masterful manipulator.
Immigration: Yes, bad people have crossed the border and will continue to struggle to boost their standard of living. On the other hand America actually needs immigrants and as their population ages the need will become more desperate. Increasingly older adults and working mothers will need helpers in a variety of tasks. Innovation is spurred by diversity and will be needed in a competitive world. Many prospects will have been discouraged and distrustful. They may seek alternatives--Canada would be a logical choice.
Environment: Climate change is creeping up and becoming increasingly difficult to reverse. There will still be lots of resistance, but the government will need to be more active in correcting misinformation coming from ignorance and vested interests. The true power of United States comes from setting a good example.
Healthcare: More people recognize the importance of healthcare for the nation. It is not only that financing cures are more expensive than preventing illness, but good health is good for the economy.
Tariffs: It has been proven that tariffs do not encourage international co-operation. Basically they raise domestic prices and narrow choices. That some are raised because Trump has a difference of opinion with foreign leaders is despicable.
Taxes have always been an election tool, but eventually the bills have to be paid or there will be even more serious consequences. The wealthy thrive in a growing economy and are in position to exploit opportunities, but they will have to share the burden of running the government. Progressive taxation needs to tilt more against the already wealthy. A good economy for all is a good economy for the rich.
Crime is another emotional issue. Yes, there will always be a need for enforcing laws and hopefully including fraud of various kinds. Obama once said that inequality is a cause of crime. Dealing with it requires skills, training and money.
Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (D.E.I.) has been attacked as discrimination. The real need is for equality of opportunity. Education is a key with a special effort to identify and develop talents. When a minority gets their foot in the door they are able to widen the opening.
Of course there are many, many details. One major change that could expedite everything else would be electoral reform. This is a very complex issue, but a good start would be to legislate against gerrymandering. America has a first past the post system that discourages many from voting, realizing (or assuming) their vote won't make any difference. Most voters try to analyze complex packages of policies. A proportional system has proved to increase voter turnout, longevity, income equality, environmental improvements and according to some scientific surveys, happiness. Those who got elected under the present electoral system will resist changes.
I am sure someone has set up betting odds for various possibilities. Voters need to focus on what is best for them, but also what is best for the nation and the world, because in the long run that is what is best for everyone.
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