From Mistakes to Meaning

All of us have made mistakes.  Both authors have made headline making mistakes.  The mistakes were difficult to live with to the extent they didn't want to talk to anybody about them.  But they were friends and eventually opened up to one another and became obsessed with trying to understand why the mistakes were made and how they could put themselves back in place.

Michael Lynton worked up to be the CEO of Sony Entertainment.  He was more of a numbers guy and together with other decision makers got together to decide whether or not to give the green light to "The Interview," a comedy involving an assassination of the North Korean dictator.  We learn later that a lot of thought had been given to the matter and there was a lot of enthusiasm from the creative team including some queries into likely North Korean reaction.  Michael later admits that he got caught up in the momentum and gave the final ok.  He also confesses that he felt as an outsider to the creative process.

North Korea was not ok.  They were able to hack Sony's computer system and reveal many embarrassing emails.  Many relationships were disrupted as celebrity actors had been criticized by executives.

Joshua L. Steiner worked his way up to be the chief of staff at the American Treasury Department in Washington.  He had decided to keep a private diary to keep track of the many events in his department.  Ironically he was not involved at all with the events under Bill Clinton's administration in Arkansas, but nonetheless Republicans were able to use parts of his diary to embarrass the Clintons as well as revealing personal information.  Why did he feel the need for a private diary and why wasn't he more circumspect about the contents?  And why did he reveal (to the wrong people) that he even had such a diary?  The Whitewater scandal hit national headlines with Joshua's diary playing a role.

After the two men went through a catharsis they decided to explore the issue of making mistakes by talking to experts and to friends, many of whom were celebrities.   But everyone makes mistakes that makes them feel regret.  In the long run people regret not so much what they did as what they didn't do.  For another relevant perspective on regret, courtesy of Daniel Pink see  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2022/06/the-power-of-regret.htm

Malcolm Gladwell, well known for his perceptive books had a surprising regret.  He had been a runner in high school and won many races, however after a period of losing some races he quit totally.  Finally in his early fifties he started running again as it was one of the things he was good at.  see http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2026/02/blink.html

The decision to have babies is fraught with difficulty.  For women it often means a diversion from a career or some other plan.  There are time constraints that make the decision more difficult.  For many, even those successful at a career, regret they didn't have more children.

Because of Michael's entertainment connections you might be interested in his insights, especially regarding, Seth Rogan and  Brad Pitt.  David Frankel, a successful director wanted to do "The Big Year" about bird watchers, but the studio wanted him to do "Moneyball" with Brad Pitt.  He had written an early version, but Pitt didn't like it and another writer, Steve Zallian was asked to write another version that suited Brad Pitt more.  Still the studio wanted David to do the directing, but Brad Pitt said no as he had been offended by David's vision.  "The Big Year" cost $45 million to produce and only earned $8 million.   On the other hand, "Moneyball" cost $50 million to produce and grossed $110 million.

What did they learn?  What did they conclude?  Mistakes are part of life and you needn't let them stop you from moving on.  You will do better to understand the root causes of your mistake.  They provide some formulas, but I would like to end with some quotes from the book.

Seneca said "we suffer more in imagination than in reality."

Groucho Marx, "Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret."

Jonathan Haidt, "The mind is divided like a rider on an elephant and the rider's job is to serve the elephant."  Check http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2025/06/the-anxious-generation.html

Barnard Baruch "I have known men who could see through the motivations of others with the skill of a clairvoyant, only to prove blind to their own mistakes.  I have been one of those men."  

After analyzing, maybe apologizing we need to move on.  Everyone makes mistakes. 

Another blog on mistakes came about for a book by Terry O'Reilly:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2022/06/my-best-mistake.html

Knock on Wood

What is luck?   Generally it is an outcome (good or bad) that is important to us, but outside our direct control.  There are rituals some go through to increase their chances of some desirable outcome.  Or others do nothing, but hope some desired event will transpire.

The author Jeffrey S. Rosenthal was born on Friday, the 13th in Toronto and after education including Harvard is now a professor of Statistics at the University of Toronto.  Statistics can be pretty heavy stuff, but Jeffrey has actually been a standup comedian with an appropriate sense of humour.  Statistics deal with probabilities and recognize that most occurences are random or predictable.  

Statistics are scientific, part of the natural world that in humans is sometimes in conflict with the supernatural world.  Florence Nightingale was an early user of statistics as she pressured British military authorities to recognize that more soldiers were dying from disease than enemy weapons.  Many thought disease was just bad luck instead of inadequate sanitation.

 We can all recall events that seemed a matter of "luck." and often find ourselves ritualizing habits to improve our chances of good luck or minimizing bad luck.  Jeffrey feels that we attach supernatural forces to random and even predictable events.  He identifies "luck traps" that confuse the issue.

Luck traps are tools for examining the truth behind a "lucky" event.  Jeffrey recounts several ways we can be deluded.  Bias, Alternative cause, many hits, many people different meaning.  You already know some of them and can readily understand of any you aren't aware of.

Before the 2016 election, although the author was supportive of Hilary Clinton and felt Trump unqualified he agreed to a bet that he would pay another person $1.00 if Hilary won, but the other person would pay him $2.00 if Trump won.  Jeffrey feels a bit guilty at the results, but doesn't feel he was a jinx.

Scientific experiments often herald new breakthroughs, but are sometimes overturned by later experiments.  The author points out that each experiement is subject to randomness, biases and have possible alternative explanations.  He cautions that each research paper be regarded as a preliminary assessment subject to later confirmation or refutation.  Experiments should be replicatable.  Author feels those who successfully replicate an experiment should get more recognition.

Lotteries are one tool that people feel luck can help pull them out of their ordinary life.  There are many systems of picking numbers, but Jeffrey makes us aware that the odds are almost impossible for any individual.  But that doesn't stop people from buying tickets and developing their system.  He discusses March madness and its incredible odds.  Warren Buffet once offered one billion dollars for anyone who could predict each game and no one was able to claim it.  It may be fun, but the odds are incomprehensible.

Jeffrey got involved with a lottery retailer scandal.  It started with a complaint from a customer in Coboconk, Ontario who felt his retailer seller had cheated him out of his winning ticket.  He was able to convince Lottery Ontario to give him the winnings, but with a request to keep it confidential.  Other people began to question the process which concerned the lottery administration.  Jeffrey was called in to do a statistical analysis where he discovered that retailers were winning an improbable number of  lotteries.  Statistically he could not prove any particular person was guilty, but it became obvious that the retailer had an advantage by hiding from the actual winners.  Changes were given such as a mandatory bell when a winning ticket is run through the checking machine.  Other jurisdictions in Canada and the United States uncovered cheating

There can be a comfort in accepting randomness.  The author met parents of a man who had died of a rare cancer.  They had read one of his articles and recognized that their son's death was not punishment for something they might have done.  The randomness was a comfort.

You may think his statistics take all the fun out of living, but he disagrees.  "I firmly believe that the world can be and should be the way it actually works without appeals to supernatural forces.  I think this leads to more logical thinking and better decisions while still allowing for incredible and wondrous experiences on this vast planet we all inhabit."

 A summary of how I feel you can best control luck comes from an ancient Roman philosopher, Seneca.  "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." Opportunities are everywhere, often disguised as problems.  Search for them and be open to other facts and opinions.

An earlier blog based partly on "The Luck Factor" by Dr. Richard Wiseman who had some interesting observations one of which mentioned by Jeffrey.  Read:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2013/01/timing-and-luck.html

How I met my wife has elements of luck, but also of reacting to opportunities.  Many of you might have similar stories.  How we have met important people in our lives often involves unfathomable number of events.  Read more:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2012/08/how-i-met-my-wife.html