The Arab Winter

The Arab Spring is looked upon as a tragic failure.  At the time there was much hope that dictators would be thrown out, but also some fear that fundamentalists would gain power.  It was not totally a failure and not without lessons.  Noah Feldman explores it.

 My interest is partly due to the influence of a brother in law, Ali Bouanba, a Muslim from Morocco.  He married my sister who I always thought the most independent minded of all my siblings.  One Christmas I asked my sister what would be a good present for him and she suggested a particular book.  I bought the book a few weeks ahead of time and decided to read it.  It was about Palestinians and although I had been a bit sympathetic this opened my mind.  I didn't get to know him until years later when on trips to Halifax I took a stop on the south shore of Montreal where my sister's family lived and over years went out of my way to drop by.  He illustrated Arab hospitality at its best.  On one trip I remember meeting some friends that had come from Ali's birth place, Safi, Morocco.  The friend was a banker working in Quebec.  I enjoyed the conversation.  Like Ali, Abdul was at least tri-lingual speaking Arabic, French and English.  Their five year old son seemed surprised I didn't speak French.  On another trip Ali made a suggestion that changed my life.  He pointed out  that a Quebec francophone trying to sell in Ontario would not do very well, but an Anglophone like myself could make a go of it in Quebec and he proved to be correct.   Read:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2012/07/travels-of-salesman-part-3-quebec.html

Noah has an understanding of Arabic and spent a few pages to point out that there was a feeling of Arabness that were part of the thinking, but that the dynamics broke down to national boundaries.  In most cases the underlying goal was merely to get rid of an autocratic ruler.  Essentially the Arab populace was looking for jobs, freedom and social welfare, not necessarily democracy.  American failures in Iraq weakened its image in the Arab world.

Egypt, the largest Arab country was successful in ridding itself of the dictator Mubarek, but then two years later threw out his replacement and returned to a military dictatorship.  Noah identifies a number of the population that played a role:  Islamists, military and the Egyptian liberal elites.  He claims the Muslim Brotherhood played little in the initial protests, but that in fact they were the most organized of any political faction.  In effect the liberals were the major part of the Tahrir Square protests of 2011 after which the military decided in their best interests to force Mubarek out as it turned out they resented his son who was slated to take over the dictatorship.  Elections were forced and Muslim Brotherhood were best suited to win control of the government.  Unfortunately although they won by only a slim margin they were not inclined to involve other political factions and in turn infuriated the liberal elites.  Although democratically elected, Morsi had lost the support of enough Egyptian people that the army felt confident enough to replace Morsi with their own choice, Sisi.  My summary is admittedly over simplified but in essence is what happened. 

Syria has been ruled for several decades by two members of the Alawite sect.  Alawites are only 15% of the population and thus they have been careful to maintain control.   France when it ruled over Syria played one ethnic group against another.  Syria gained support from the Soviet Union and later Russia and when Israel attacked the P.LO. in Lebanon they had American support, making the battles a proxy war. Not willing to make concessions to the majority Sunnis, Assad was able count on support of Russia and Iran when he turned the conflict into the Syrian Civil War.

The Syrian Civil War freed up Sunni areas and elements organized into ISIL or ISIS to capture this area and later expand into Iraq.  They attracted Muslims and Arabs from all over the world who saw their goals as a sort of Arab Utopia.  Violent elements controlled the movement, but eventually attracted opposition from the Russians, Americans and Kurds.  They too failed at least in part as they were unwilling to consider the wishes of the people already living in the conquered areas.

Tunisia where the Arab Spring originated when Mohammed Bouazizi burned himself to death in protest the circumstances were more favorable.  Tunisia lacked oil wealth that concentrated wealth to particular individuals and had traditions that favored both democracy and secularism.  Different elements sought consensus.  Two assassinations shook the situation, but in some ways spurred the search for consensus.  By 2014 Tunisia became the first functioning democracy in the Arab speaking world.  It is still precarious because the economy did not significantly improve, meaning unemployment was still a concern.

The author has told us the failures of the Arab spring, but feels although discouraging there was one success (as of the writing).  Examining the differences to suggest future efforts.  He thinks the winter may last a long time, but eventually another spring will come.  The rest of us need to reflect on the fragile Tunisian success and do what we can to nurture it.  This is only a crude summary of what Noah Feldman wrote.

What we can learn from the Arab Spring

As far away observers some of us seem to feel that the Arabs are finally getting some things right. Others forget our side had a lot to do with their suppression. It suited us that their rulers would co-operate with us to give the world a reasonable level of cheap energy and help develop a Western oriented balance of power.

An important lesson we can learn has to do with democracy. We think we set the standards, but we might be a little near sighted. Most new electoral systems incorporate some form of proportional voting. We actually encourage it in foreign countries. Our concerns with Arab nations is not so benevolent, but reflects our fears that the fundamentalist extremists will gain control as under our first past the post system they could very easily do so. We fear that if they get control they will irreversibly institute things that we find offensive such as Sharia law, the banning of alcohol and ally themselves with our enemies. So we want to ensure that the minorities that are more Westernized have a strong influence and have figured out that proportional voting can help make that happen.

In Algeria the fundamentalists a few decades ago did get control and upset the international balance of power. In Iran fundamentalists threw out the Shah that had been propped up by western powers. Lately the situation is different. In Tunisia, although the fundamentalists have a very strong voice they are forced to acknowledge those who have different and even opposite concerns.

German election laws gave the Nazis legitimate power that they were able to leverage into total power that eventaully the whole world suffered from. We in North America should not be so self righteious. In the United States with the help of their Constitution, and the Supreme Court a president was elected with less than the plurality of votes and went on to set policies in such areas as war, environment, financial regulations and taxes that seriously impacted the majority that had voted otherwise.

In Canada in one province a leader with less than 30% of eligible voters and well less than majority of actual votes was able to declare a new holiday amongst other things. In national elections one party with less than 50% of the votes was finally able to do away with distribution of funds to all politcal parties in proportion to the number of votes they were able to attract. This means that in the future fund raising will be even more critical to a party's success. This hardly noticed change in law is very pernicious as the party making this hard to reverse decision saw it as helpful to its own future prospects.

To my mind the most critical change required for true democracy is campaign finance. In theory democracy is a battle of ideas, but in reality those with money have a bigger platform to make their points. Those with the money have greater influence. This is currently a bigger concern in the United States where the appointed Supreme Court has ruled corporations have in some circumstances have the same standing as human citizens, but is a concern in all democracies.

By now you may guessed that I very much favour proportional voting systems. Some critics might think it is a problem to have more than two parties as it leads to minority governments that paralyze decision making. That can be bad, however when there are no restraints the party in power can actually (and in fact often do) effectively ignore the will of the majority of people.

I think with even ten parties it is unlikely that very few people will agree 100% with every policy detail of any one party. But each voter has the right to have their own priorities and to minimize compromise in their decision. Compromises will be made amongst those elected. Those compromises will help determine future votes.

As always those in power do what they can to maintain and increase their power. They look for rules that increase their leverage.

Many new democracies realize the need to represent all viewpoints. Minorities are important. Sometimes they act as a conscience, sometimes they offer viable alternatives, often they are able to constructively criticize what those in dominant positions propose and always they are part of the team that needs to work together for the benefit of all.

Our democracy evolved to what it is today and still needs to evolve to be a truer democracy. We allow more people to vote, but actually the percentages seem to be on a downward trajectory. One reason might be because many people realize their vote will not count or have any significant influence. Our Arab brethren actually have more influence in many circumstances on what will happen than we do. Politicians have to take into account what the people want. When people realize they have influence they are more inclined to weigh it carefully and above all to exercise it.