Influence: Want to get More?

This is a unique sales book as it is not just for sales people.  Robert B. Cialdini describes himself as a "patsy" as he is an easy sell.  As a psychology researcher he became curious about how it was done on him.  In this regard the book is mainly about what he calls "compliance professionals" and "compliance practitioners" either of which you might fall into.  On the other hand, he occasionally offers antidotes so everyone can benefit from reading this book, which is perhaps the best sales book I have read.

He quotes Alfred North. "Civilization advances by extending the number of operations we can perform without thinking about them."  That means a lot of our decisions are made with little thought.

7 Strategies that have been used on you or you have used on others are the core of his book.  They are reciprocity, social proof, liking, authority, commitment and consistency, scarcity and unity.  His research has given persuasion a scientific basis and his anecdotes make them more understandable.

There are many decisions we frequently make and for the most part we use heuristics, that are just mental short cuts.  For instance "expensive is good" or "inexpensive is cheap", both of which are reliably true, but can be misleading. 

Reciprocity is simply if you give something to another person you might expect something in return.  It can be something concrete (like a sample), a favor or a concession.  One interesting example was with the Watergate break in, that on the surface was very risky with not much payoff.  However one member of the group started with an even more outlandish plan involving much more money and risk and it was rejected by all the other members of the tight group.  A second proposal was about half the cost and, it too was rejected.  The other members were exasperated and ended up accepting a third proposal that cost about 1/4 of the original.  It was a dumb decision that was partly the result of concessions made in return for agreement.

Often the person who made the concession feels more in control by steering the decision closer to their preference.

As a side issue that demonstrates the author's contention on how to get others to like you is with the partial failures of school desegregation.  Most liberals felt it would work when blacks and whites were in contact, but it didn't work in many cases.  The author pointed out that blacks were mostly disadvantaged in situations where they competed in classroom for attention.  Cialdini felt it would (and did) work better when students were encouraged to be co-operative to achieve mutual goals.

Social proof acts as a reassurance that one is not the only one making a decision.  Netflix, just by pointing out the popularity of a film increased its popularity.  Another example would be during Covid, many would not wear a mask until they saw others wearing masks.

Using authority as a strategy means relying at least in part on a title that suggests expertise.  As consumers we are often approached this way and when it really reflects expertise and is relevant we should pay attention.  The author points out methods to buttress authority, but also tells consumers to check the expertise and just as important, determine the relevance.  An expert in physics is not necessarily knowledgeable or relevant to climate change.

When something is scarce or becoming scarce, generally it is considered more valuable.   Prospects can become afraid of losing something they want (or might want).  In the game of love, a partner taken for granted can become more desired when a romantic rival appears.  Cialdini feels to protect yourself you should realize ownership and enjoyment are two separate things and before you make a choice bear that in mind.  Also realize that scarcity can be deceiving or manipulated.

 Another perspective on scarcity and how you might deal with it:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2025/12/scarcity.html

If I can get you to commit to something you can often be persuaded to continue to a consistent agreement.  Nobody wants to appear inconsistent.  An example given is with the Chinese prison staff during the Korean War that seeks only a small agreement from one of their American prisoners, but are able to eventually get written and signed statements supporting a Chinese view.  One of their tools was to block outgoing mail to soldiers that wanted their families to know they were alive.

Anwar Sadat was known to flatter someone by suggesting they had an excellent reputation.  Then to be consistent they were encouraged to move closer to his position.

To avoid the consistency trap it is important to nip it in the bud.  At first chance claim you are not chained to previous commitments.

The seventh strategy is labeled"'unity" that points out we prefer to interact with those most like us.  Obviously family can be decisive.  Anyone can stretch things to find a common point of unity.  Common examples are race, ethnicity, gender, favorite sports teams and musical tastes.  One example was how a Jewish rabbi explained to Japanese administrators (allied with Nazis) that what the two of them had in common was they were both Asian and that alleviated suffering.

Unity can also be abused and the author gives at least two examples:  labor unions and Catholic clergy that he maintains protect abusers among their members.  In a personal example Cialdini had been called on as an expert witness and found himself on a legal team determined to defeat an opposition, no matter what facts opposed them.

Ethics plays a role in his philosophy.  We should not allow ourselves to be railroaded under a unity strategy that abuses others.  One piece of paper I keep with me is a quote from Benjamin Franklin:  "For having lived long I have experienced many instances by being obliged by better information or fuller consideration to change opinions even on important subjects which I once thought right, but found to be otherwise."

We now live in a world where most of the information is less than 15 years old and we need time to process it.  With all the future changes we will find ourselves deciding on smaller reliable strategies.

I have been a professional compliancer and would like to think I have always been honest, but that would be stretching things a little bit.  I have in fact walked away from opportunities to make money that made me feel uncomfortable and I have tried to present a true case for whatever I was trying to sell.  Robert B. Cialdini points out all the strategies he has told us about are legitimate, but are also subject to abuse.  Unlike most sales books he tells us how to minimize abuses against us.  Thank you.

There is a lot of value in "Influence" that can't be covered in a blog post.  This book was highly recommended by Daniel Pink and it has sold over 5 million copies.  There; I am using social proof and authority for you to consider.

Thirteen Days in September

The news brings us updates of international conflict every day.  Sometimes the situation seems hopeless.  With this book, "Thirteen Days in September" author Lawrence Wright brings us to a time when three men were able to deal with great difficulties to fashion an agreement that has had a positive effect ever since.  The author argues the timing was wrong, the personalities not conducive, however in the end Jimmy Carter's determination was critical.

Lawrence provides a lot of background information that really sets the stage for why the Middle East is such a tense place.  Also a lot of in depth personal history of not only the main characters but also many of the supporting cast.

The three men, Jimmy Carter, Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat had conflicting personalities  and viewpoints with one shared trait.  They all had religious beliefs, but they were in some ways counter productive.  Menachem Begin felt that the Jews deserved more land than they were originally given.  Jimmy Carter, a Sunday school teacher, then as now felt settlements on occupied lands were a provocation.  Anwar Sadat felt Egypt should represent the Arab and Muslim grievances.

Jimmy Carter wanted to be a facilitator letting the other two work out differences, but that failed.  Originally thought the process required 3 or 4 days, but dragged on.  Jimmy and his American team (Zbigniew Brzezinski and Cyrus Vance were key) then made proposals and looked for some sign of bending which occurred only after a lot of stress.

Tempers flare as there is a lot of obstinacy.  Each leader had his flaws--in the end political realities played a role. Once they had invested some effort they each needed something to show for the effort. Egypt wanted land, Israel wanted better relations--Jimmy Carter needed something to make him look good.

A few oddities included that Sadat was descended from a slave and had negro blood.  Boutros Boutros-Ghalli who later became prominent at the Untied Nations was a Coptic Christian, and married a Jew.  Zbigniew Brzezinski and Menachim Begin both shared a Polish heritage and enjoyed playing each other in chess.

In the end diplomatic relations were established between Israel and Egypt that also facilitated trade benefits.  The Sinai Peninsula was returned to Egypt including oil resources.  The Suez Canal is accessible to everyone.  A surprising detail is that since 1979 there has not been a single violation of the terms.

The Palestinians were abandoned as their inclusion would have negated the rest of the treaty that could be worked out.  Originally they were an important component, but Begin would not budge and both Egypt and United States desperately wanted something to be agreed upon.

There was quite a political risk for Jimmy and in the end it wasn't enough.  The Iran crisis and a stagnant economy did him in.  Nobody since has made as much progress and the agreements were not enough of a building block to stop violence.  Jimmy Carter has said (and I agree) that the biggest obstacle is Jewish settlements on occupied land.  That is such an emotional issue on both sides that nothing will go forward until it is resolved.

Another step towards peace was taken under Bill Clinton, another Democrat president when he facilitated an agreement between Jordan and Israel in 1994.  Still no real impact on the Palestinians.

JIMMY CARTER, A MUCH MALIGNED HERO

When Jimmy Carter's name appears, too often it is derisively.  He is most remembered by some as a one term president who Ronald Reagan managed to belittle on his way to the White House.  Current commentators denigrate in passing.

I look at him differently.  He was a man of principle and of vision and not one who rested on his laurels.  He made his share of mistakes, but people too often overlook the good things he accomplished and the obstacles that were not his fault.  This past September 7th marked the point where Jimmy had the longest post White House career of any president--31 years.

Jimmy Carter trained as an engineer in the navy and later studied nuclear physics.  He is no dummy and has a closer view than most of one of the most powerful forces in the world today.

His first effort to run as a state senator in Georgia ran into some ballot box manipulation which with a lot of effort he was able to overcome.  He became conscious of ballot box abuses and later became involved with election monitoring.

When he decided to run for president his timing was good in that voters were sick of the corruption that Watergate symbolized and leading Democrats were sidelined.  He ran as an outsider and made some very good campaign moves.  For instance he took the traditionally early Iowa primary much more seriously than his rivals did and was able to build some momentum from there.  He used zero based budgeting as governor and as a campaigner.

For his inauguration he and Rosalynn stepped out of the official vehicle and walked.

Gerald Ford stirred up some resentment by pardoning Richard Nixon, but perhaps that was part of a necessary healing process.  Jimmy Carter's first act was to pardon Vietnam War draft dodgers.  A lot of hard feelings, but also helped to soften many wounds.

As an outsider he did not have any natural constituencies.  While trying to maintain his independence he offended many insiders.  As president you could say his honeymoon lasted about one year and things went downhill from there.

In a famous Playboy interview he was criticized for admitting that he had "lusted in his heart," but he was faithful to his wife.  Honesty is not always rewarded in politics.

First Ladies like to get involved in new non partisan initiatives.  Rosalynn chose mental health, a concern too many are reluctant to deal with.  She carried on this interest with the Carter Center by amongst other things encouraging journalism to cover some of the issues.  She was concerned to alleviate the stigma that complicated identifying and treating mental illnesses as well insurance concerns that also made it more difficult.

During his presidency the Arab oil cartel decided to use an embargo to express their frustration.  Jimmy Carter realized that America had to reduce their dependency on oil.  He encouraged alternative energy sources, but was also keen on conservation.  Famously he put solar panels on the White House which were dismantled by his successor Ronald Reagan who wanted to make a point.  Although Reagan left a bigger imprint on America at the time, I feel Jimmy was the better man with the better message.

When the Russians invaded Afghanistan Jimmy Carter decided to boycott the Moscow Olympics. This was greeted favorably at first, but later there was some resentment and of course the Russians reciprocated by boycotting the Los Angeles Olympics a few years later.  I have very mixed feelings as I have always thought of the Olympics as non political-- a chance to put differences aside.  At the same time there are few options available outside of war that would have as strong an impact.

His mother Lillian proved to be an asset to Jimmy, but his brother Billy an embarrassment.  Billy was alcoholic and non political.  He was used by other people and at one time became a lobbyist for Libya.

Carter was able to take advantage of Anwar Sadat's willingness to take a chance.  He invited Menachem Begin and Sadat  to Camp David.  The Israeli was very suspicious and fearful of any deal.  Egypt was the only Arab country that had any military strength to remotely rival Israel who had almost unlimited access to American resources.  There was a lot of going back and forth before a deal could be made.  

I had read that on a world tour, Jimmy asked Rosalynn where she would prefer to spend New Years Eve and she chose Teheran.  Although Americans dealt with all sorts of dictators around the world, Jimmy had a reputation of high moral standards.  Unfortunately his admiration for the Shah was about to blow up in his face.  Americans forget that under President Eisenhower, the Iranians staged a coup d'etat against an elected president and replaced him with the Shah.  The Shah organized secret police (with help from the CIA) and exiled Muslim leaders and used oil revenues for his own benefit.

During Jimmy's tenure the Iranian people rose up and caused the Shah to flee.  It soon developed that he required sophisticated medical treatment.  Carter consented to let the Shah seek it in America. This was a factor in Iranian students deciding to attack the American Embassy and take the staff hostage. For awhile there was some hope it might end soon, but it dragged on.  Carter seemed helpless and a failed rescue attempt made him seem more so.  In September Saddam Husein thought it an opportune time to attack Iran which further disrupted any progress Carter was having for the hostages.

Some of the circumstances around his 2nd presidential election are suspicious.  Most everyone cites the Iran hostage crisis as perhaps the most critical factor as it dragged on for 444 days.  Although you would think Ronald Reagan's tough words would encourage the Iranians to compromise with Jimmy, they in fact held off until Reagan's inauguration day.  I had read reports that the Republicans had arranged this behind the scenes and it is known that deals were done involving Iran and Nicaragua.

Could he have brought stagflation under control?  Perhaps some leaders with intelligent support from Congress, but realistically not very likely.  He did a lot of things to reduce a deficit that aggravated employment.

The Democrats did not unify under Jimmy Carter and he had to deal with a serious campaign from Ted Kennedy.  That obviously cut into his support and distracted his administration.  John Anderson ran a third party candidacy which also hurt.  For one of the debates his preparation notebook had been stolen and later given to the Reagan team.  In the end he got about 41% of the popular vote and Reagan got 51% and the essential electoral college votes.

Jimmy and his wife had been humiliated and went back home to Plains.  Before too long people asked for his help and advice.  Eventually he looked around and saw all sorts of problems that became challenges.

It is difficult to sort the variety of tasks he and Rosalynn tackled.  They formed the Carter Center to give some focus to all their efforts.

One interesting task was to supervise elections in Nicaragua.  He felt the Sandinistas were too confident and when they were rejected at the ballot box there was fear they would not accept the results.  Carter pointed out that losing an election was not the end of the world.  He became involved in numerous elections, not all of them going smoothly.  He had to leave places where he refused to compromise.  He pushed for fair elections.  It was not uncommon for violence to surround many of the elections he was involved in.  Many politicians recognized Jimmy gave credibility to the election results.   Other elections monitored included Haiti, Sudan, Ghana, Guyana and rural China.  Not everyone co-operated, but generally Carter played a positive role.

An issue that he pushed against as president was Israeli settlements in Palestinian territory.  He kept pressing the issue and at one point wrote a book, "Palestine, Peace not Apartheid" which was condemned by many politicians.  I believe he identified the key obstacle to peace in the Middle East. It is unfair to say that he was trying to harm the Israeli cause as he seemed to feel a resolution to this issue would better insure their long term security.

He has been involved in mediating some tough foreign situations including Korea and Haiti.  In 2002 he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Although Americans manage to deal with China, Vietnam, and Venezuela, a solid core of anti Castro people in Florida have made it very difficult to have bi-lateral relations with Cuba that would benefit everyone.  In office Carter had lifted some restrictions with Cuba.  Jimmy didn't always see eye to eye with Fidel Castro, but he was able to push him to loosen up things a bit.  He also worked with Cuban medical resources in many of his disease campaigns..

Jimmy identified many diseases that were being neglected.  One they helped wrestle to almost distinction was guinea worm disease.  It is not fatal, but causes pain and debilitation.  One tool that combats the disease is netting that serves as a filter.  A deeper problem was that in some areas the water was considered sacred and he had to persuade many villagers that they had deal with the water in a practical manner.  In treating river blindness (onchocerciasis) they learned that a patented medicine for heartworm was effective and took steps to incorporate its use to alleviate a lot of suffering.

Another project Jimmy is associated with is Habitat for Humanity where he did manual work and helped organize the building of many houses all around the globe.  The idea wasn't just to hand over a house to some lucky people, but to teach responsibility.

The Carter Center will continue past him as he has been careful to involve and train staff to take overall his functions.  His celebrity and his talents helped get it started, but Jimmy sees the real value as ongoing.

I was pleased to learn that Jimmy Carter's grandson helped reveal a secret video of Mitt Romney that was very revealing and apparently critical for the 2012 election.