Canada near a "Breaking Point"

I had a casual attitude when starting "Breaking Point" (2025), but soon realized that some of my comfortable progressive views might have to be adjusted.  Not only is the world a rough place, but so is Canada itself.  We have problems that can do us in, if we don't make some changes that may hurt.

It is not as if the signs have not been visible, but from a comfortable position they didn't seem as pertinent as problems in the rest of the world.  I own a home, have a reasonable pension, live in Ontario and in many ways I am better off than young males..

One stress is regional, particularly with Alberta and Saskatchewan that feel ignored by the federal government and have discussed separation.  There are still Quebekers who resent being part of Canada.

Another stress is inter generational.  Today's youth is not better off than their parents, in fact too many of them still live with their parents as they cannot afford to go it alone.  Young men often feel that the government treats women better and this causes a lot of social issues.  They are vulnerable to anti-government arguments.

Canada, once admired and feared for our military prowess, now is not living up to their military commitments.  We are not only more threatened over the Arctic, but Americans are mocking, and even threatening us.

Immigration has been a success, but now we have overreached and it is irritating Canadians.  We cannot find housing for everyone and citizens feel foreigners are threatening our jobs and our culture.

One of the causes is that housing is un affordable for too many first time buyers and immigrants.  The authors suggest we need to spread out our suburban areas.  I draw the line at sprawl which they favor.  There is a trade off between population and arable land and it is likely going to be a more difficult balance in the future.  They do speak of bureaucratic paperwork and NIMBY attitudes that if overcome, the resistance to fourplexes and the like will be reduced.         

Although we have improved our treatment with our indigenous there is still resentment, distrust and waste.  Our history has for the most part fixated on assimilation, often forced.  We have written treaties and then ignored many of them.  Lately we have been going in the right direction, but need to work with them more.  They have been friends of environmentalists while not much sharing in the mineral and oil wealth.  Their education has mostly been inferior and needs to be upgraded.  An early effort to improve their lot came from Paul Martin  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2013/03/paul-martin-under-appreciated.html

Alberta does have legitimate grievances, but with too much of their wealth built around oil; dirty oil at that.  To my way of thinking climate change is the most pressing global issue (some would argue Nuclear war):  see http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2024/10/intervention-earth.html  They will continue to mostly resist a transition to electrical cars and other environmental engineering.  There is no easy solution, but as a starter I would suggest they be given a nuclear power plant or more that will help provide "clean" electricity.  More federal government offices to provide not only jobs, but greater control.  I know from personal experience that bilingualism is frowned upon and resented for job requirements.

Generational stress has caught some of us baby boomers by surprise, although we are concerned for our own offspring.  The baby boomers in many cases have comfortable lives, but not all their children do.  The authors suggest there ought to be transfers of wealth to the younger generations with taxes eased.  The real cure is education.  It needs to be more affordable and accessible, but also more targeted.  Trades had been looked down upon, but reality points out they are needed and can provide a comfortable standard of living.  At the same time as there is a stronger vocational aspect to education we also need to prepare for more leisure time, meaning physical fitness and appreciation for the arts.

Our military weakness seems to have developed since the 80's.  It was pointed out that Lyndon Johnson admired how the Canadian military handled a crisis in Cyprus and may even have given us favorable  terms with an auto pact.  The Arctic has opened up from global warming and both the Russians and Chinese are taking advantage.  We can build military bases in the north and also support northern urban settlements.  The cost of living is much greater in northern Canada which is a deterrent for immigration to the area.  Also the indigenous could be better supported.

Immigration is vital for our future.  We do not produce enough babies to support the older generations or to generate sufficient economic activity.  We are already relatively selective, but not as supportive as ideal.  Many qualified professionals are blocked by a need for certification.  We should also shift destinations away from the urban magnets of Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto.  For some immigrants a willingness to locate to lesser populated areas could give them preferential opportunities.  

The media has been splintered with a variety of perspectives including extreme views.  Online sources provide information for many people while trained journalists have difficulty getting a job.  It is difficult to find trustworthy information.

Money is definitely needed to change for the future. Taxes are a touchy matter.  Money is easily transferred from one jurisdiction to another with more favorable terms.  By lowering taxes for younger workers trying to form families we all benefit.  We need innovation which often means we need to attract money.  Increased income is an incentive.  The opportunity perhaps lies with the idle rich. They suggest a means criteria should be applied to old age pensions.  How you might define them would be difficult and they would have clever lawyers to defend their interests. 

The authors tell a history of political bungling involving all parties.  They noted that when the conservatives merged with the reform party they gained power and were able to get things done.  They suggest that the progressive parties, Liberals, NDP. and Green should merge and stop splitting their votes. 

I believe a two party system is going backwards.  The voters are not all dumb, they get a mixed package for each party at best.  Many have figured out that unless they vote for the winner, their vote is wasted.  Some adopt a strategic strategy choosing their second choice in order to block a hated rival.  Bottom line, a lot of people do not vote at all and few really study the options. When a party has to co-operate with other parties to have any real power they are careful to avoid antagonism.  Votes are not wasted so in Proportional Representative jurisdictions, more people actually vote thus signifying true values  The authors threw out some examples of proportional voting countries that fail, but in fact there are far more where more people actually vote, more legislation sticks, the results are better for the country as a whole and most critically, scientific surveys suggest the citizens are happier, even though taxes are generally higher.  Honest collaboration is one of the keys.  Andrew Coyne pointed out that the voting system is the base for everything else.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2025/09/the-crisis-of-canadian-democracy.html  An earlier blog of mine gives more perspective http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2023/10/your-vote-neednt-be-wasted.html

 Donald Trump has provided more incentive to get our act together.  If we don't want to be American and risk having him as a dictator, we need to change.  Sacrifices that were required in warfare may be necessary.

There are a lot of relevant ideas in the book and blog readers should bear in mind this post is an incomplete summary.  

You can read about another earlier effort of the two authors.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2024/12/empty-planet.html

Empty Planet

Over 50 years ago I took a course in demographics.  A lot has changed since then.  Then, we had gone through the baby boomers and a lot of experts agreed there was danger in being overpopulated, but some thought there were some natural brakes 

The two authors studied lots of statistics, but more importantly traveled around the world and talked to a variety not only of experts, but also to ordinary people (if a little better educated).  Recently saw both with Steve Paikin on the tv show "The Agenda" 5 years after publication of "Empty Planet" (2019).

Two factors have emerged in almost every nation to account for declining birth rates:  the education (and empowerment) of women and urbanization.  For ages having children was good for helping on the farm, but in the city children are more of an expense.  Women are at long last learning how to avoid burdensome motherhood and enjoy life more.

The replacement rate for women to replicate themselves is 2.1 meaning they need to have 2 babies each plus a little more to allow for those who don't have any or only 1.  Almost all of the developed world is below that number and even in most of the developing world the number is also declining.  The global population has been climbing because of longevity increases and parts of the world where women have more than two babies.  The authors contend that previous estimates are far higher than the reality and declining population will be dramatic.

It is not necessarily a bad thing, however there will be some negative effects. 

Young people are innovators and older people are expensive with pensions and medical care while fewer people to generate the economy and provide services.

China after their experience with their one child policy are stuck with millions of men unable to find a female partner because when only allowed one child and with the Chinese strong preference for boys and many girls were abandoned.  Many ended up adopted overseas.  During the policy years both men and women learned that sterilization was the most effective birth control. 

Brazil telenovelas effected women of all social classes if they watched them.  The families depicted were small and the women all seemed to have more freedom.  They appealed to both rich and poor.

Infertility is another factor.  Naomi Klein in an effort to get pregnant learned about fertility issues.  Chemical pollution is correlated to infertility, birth defects and miscarriages.  see   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2015/02/this-changes-everything-deserves-major.html

Both authors are Canadian and have noticed historical factors that have boosted population.

Clifford Sifton was the Canadian interior cabinet minister from 1896 to 1905 under Wilfrid Laurier and both were concerned that Americans were pushing towards the western border with Canada.  The government took some immigration employees off salary and put on commission.  Under Sifton, immigration authorities approached Scandinavia, Germany, Balkans, and Ukraine enticing many who helped secure the border against Americans.

On the other hand the government stopped Chinese immigrants after they had been instrumental in building the national railway.  Jews from the St Louis ship were sent away and during World War II the Japanese were forced into internment camps.

Eventually the Chinese were allowed to migrate and Canada developed a reputation for helping refugees including Hungarians after 1956, the Vietnamese fleeing war conditions and the Syrians during their Civil War and most recently Ukrainians.  The government uses  a point system that evaluates which refugees or would be immigrants can help Canada.  We also accepted a multi cultural life style that was more comfortable for non English immigrants..

My ancestors came to North America by boat from England, Scotland and Switzerland and some shifted from the United States by horse or on foot.  My wife Sharon's ancestors also came by boat from Italy and Ukraine.

Quebec has a delicate situation because they not only needed to boost population, but wanted to maintain their French culture.  They targeted French west Africa.  My Brother in law, Ali came from Morocco to Ontario for education.  After he married my sister the plan was to go to Morocco, however a stopover in Montreal offered a compatible situation with more Moroccans and as he was fluent in French (English and Arabic) the decision was made to live in Quebec.  Their house proved to be an enjoyable stopover on my way to Nova Scotia to visit my daughter in school and develop a sales job and then he helped me open up Quebec for sales and vacationing.   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2012/07/travels-of-salesman-part-3-quebec.html

The U.S. needs immigrants to maintain their standard of living, but some politicians (example Donald Trump) think a key to getting elected is to cater to prejudices.  Most of American Nobel prize winners were immigrants.  Soon America will find it more difficult to attract necessary immigrants as many will find conditions at home better and there will be fewer of them. 

 Incentives do make a difference, but not nearly enough.  Paternity leave, tax deductions even cash bonuses have to compete against other factors.

 IVF is one tool to help slow down the decline.  For those who were without hope there is now hope   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2024/11/joy-film-about-ivf.html

Environmentalists have pointed out a major cause of climate change has been the burgeoning over- population.  Urbanization can be good for the environment.  High rise apartments can be more energy efficient and allow traffic to be more manageable.

The population mix has changed gradually, but seems certain to bend towards less with a greater proportion to the older.  The right to work legislation and the generosity of pensions likely will be adjusted.  We truly are all part of this change and perhaps we will act more compassionately as well as rational.