Empty Planet

Over 50 years ago I took a course in demographics.  A lot has changed since then.  Then, we had gone through the baby boomers and a lot of experts agreed there was danger in being overpopulated, but some thought there were some natural brakes 

The two authors studied lots of statistics, but more importantly traveled around the world and talked to a variety not only of experts, but also to ordinary people (if a little better educated).  Recently saw both with Steve Paikin on the tv show "The Agenda" 5 years after publication of "Empty Planet" (2019).

Two factors have emerged in almost every nation to account for declining birth rates:  the education (and empowerment) of women and urbanization.  For ages having children was good for helping on the farm, but in the city children are more of an expense.  Women are at long last learning how to avoid burdensome motherhood and enjoy life more.

The replacement rate for women to replicate themselves is 2.1 meaning they need to have 2 babies each plus a little more to allow for those who don't have any or only 1.  Almost all of the developed world is below that number and even in most of the developing world the number is also declining.  The global population has been climbing because of longevity increases and parts of the world where women have more than two babies.  The authors contend that previous estimates are far higher than the reality and declining population will be dramatic.

It is not necessarily a bad thing, however there will be some negative effects. 

Young people are innovators and older people are expensive with pensions and medical care while fewer people to generate the economy and provide services.

China after their experience with their one child policy are stuck with millions of men unable to find a female partner because when only allowed one child and with the Chinese strong preference for boys and many girls were abandoned.  Many ended up adopted overseas.  During the policy years both men and women learned that sterilization was the most effective birth control. 

Brazil telenovelas effected women of all social classes if they watched them.  The families depicted were small and the women all seemed to have more freedom.  They appealed to both rich and poor.

Infertility is another factor.  Naomi Klein in an effort to get pregnant learned about fertility issues.  Chemical pollution is correlated to infertility, birth defects and miscarriages.  see   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2015/02/this-changes-everything-deserves-major.html

Both authors are Canadian and have noticed historical factors that have boosted population.

Clifford Sifton was the Canadian interior cabinet minister from 1896 to 1905 under Wilfrid Laurier and both were concerned that Americans were pushing towards the western border with Canada.  The government took some immigration employees off salary and put on commission.  Under Sifton, immigration authorities approached Scandinavia, Germany, Balkans, and Ukraine enticing many who helped secure the border against Americans.

On the other hand the government stopped Chinese immigrants after they had been instrumental in building the national railway.  Jews from the St Louis ship were sent away and during World War II the Japanese were forced into internment camps.

Eventually the Chinese were allowed to migrate and Canada developed a reputation for helping refugees including Hungarians after 1956, the Vietnamese fleeing war conditions and the Syrians during their Civil War and most recently Ukrainians.  The government uses  a point system that evaluates which refugees or would be immigrants can help Canada.  We also accepted a multi cultural life style that was more comfortable for non English immigrants..

My ancestors came to North America by boat from England, Scotland and Switzerland and some shifted from the United States by horse or on foot.  My wife Sharon's ancestors also came by boat from Italy and Ukraine.

Quebec has a delicate situation because they not only needed to boost population, but wanted to maintain their French culture.  They targeted French west Africa.  My Brother in law, Ali came from Morocco to Ontario for education.  After he married my sister the plan was to go to Morocco, however a stopover in Montreal offered a compatible situation with more Moroccans and as he was fluent in French (English and Arabic) the decision was made to live in Quebec.  Their house proved to be an enjoyable stopover on my way to Nova Scotia to visit my daughter in school and develop a sales job and then he helped me open up Quebec for sales and vacationing.   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2012/07/travels-of-salesman-part-3-quebec.html

The U.S. needs immigrants to maintain their standard of living, but some politicians (example Donald Trump) think a key to getting elected is to cater to prejudices.  Most of American Nobel prize winners were immigrants.  Soon America will find it more difficult to attract necessary immigrants as many will find conditions at home better and there will be fewer of them. 

 Incentives do make a difference, but not nearly enough.  Paternity leave, tax deductions even cash bonuses have to compete against other factors.

 IVF is one tool to help slow down the decline.  For those who were without hope there is now hope   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2024/11/joy-film-about-ivf.html

Environmentalists have pointed out a major cause of climate change has been the burgeoning over- population.  Urbanization can be good for the environment.  High rise apartments can be more energy efficient and allow traffic to be more manageable.

The population mix has changed gradually, but seems certain to bend towards less with a greater proportion to the older.  The right to work legislation and the generosity of pensions likely will be adjusted.  We truly are all part of this change and perhaps we will act more compassionately as well as rational.  

"In Love we Trust" is a movie title with deep meaning

As often happens my favorite movies are unexpected.  "In Love we Trust" (2007) was a random pick off the library shelf as a time filler.  A Chinese movie with no recognizable participants.

The plot sounds inconceivable, but it is theoretically possible.  The key factor is to find a bone marrow match that best insures survival for a particular dying person.  Today around the world there are lots of people desperately looking for a match usually found with a close blood relative.  Xiaoshuai Wang wrote and directed this movie at a time, 2007 when the Chinese were mostly enforcing a one child policy.

That is a little background, but the movie starts innocently enough with a likely sales woman trying to interest a couple to lease an apartment, but not succeeding.  A little detail that plays a role later on.

We soon see a man holding his laughing daughter and running down a hallway with a woman (could be the sales woman) following closely behind.  We soon realize that they are a small family.  Shortly the young girl is taken for tests as she has a persistent fever.  The tests reveal the young girl has cancer.  A bone marrow transplant is suggested and the mother is tested, but not a good match.  We then realize the man we have been following is her second husband, and not the natural father but understand that he is deeply involved with the young girl.

The first husband is informed and shows a lot of concern although at first he is introduced to his daughter as an uncle.  Unfortunately he is not a match either.  The mother is frantic and somehow after talking to the doctors realizes the most practical solution is to have another baby with her first husband.

Four adults all have their concerns which the viewer is led gently to appreciate.  The mother and her second husband have a very good relationship, but he had hoped that somehow they could have their own baby.  The man has totally accepted her daughter as his.  The woman had been abandoned by her first husband who remarried after a divorce.  Although the viewer might not have much sympathy for the actual father, he wants to be honest with his new wife.  They both have very busy jobs as he is a construction manager with a difficult project and she is an airline stewardess.  At first his second wife doesn't accept the idea of him being a sperm donor to his first wife.  She does feel a bit guilty and with a friend goes to visit the first wife who is away.  She meets the daughter with the step father and is touched.  She consents, but pressures her husband that she wants a baby.

All set, but it gets a bit more complicated.  Two attempts fail and the doctors refuse to consider another.  We learn the mother has had an abortion and some miscarriages.  With the one child policy the rules have already been bent.  The mother who is still resentful of her first husband says the only option is for them to have sex the old fashioned way.

This creates an emotional crisis for the other three adults.  The two left out adults are afraid of the intimacy part, but also resentful that they also want to be natural parents.  The first husband is worried about his new wife.  Everyone tries to be honest about it, but it feels like they are pushing it a bit much and there is push-back.  I can't say the movie has a happy ending, but the tension is relieved enough that the audience is satisfied  Oh, the detail from the beginning comes back to play a role.

Although the plot may seem contrived the actors are all very believable.   They trust love to maintain their relationships and to save the young girl.  There is no explicit sex, but the emotional tension holds attention.

The Chinese have since eased the one child rule.  I had learned previously that although largely respected there were a number of exceptions allowed.  Rich people, rural areas, unusual circumstances.  Still a demographic problem that will factor for future generation. One effect has been there aren't enough women for the men, which does not advantage the women as much as you might think.  More women are forced into prostitution.  Unattached males tend to be more aggressive. It also means that most Chinese children do not have aunts, uncles, siblings or cousins all of whom would offer traditional support.

The woman who plays the mother Liu Weiwei is especially effective and won a best actress award at a film festival, although this was only her second movie.  She is still active in television.

Jin-yi Zhang who played the first husband has won a few awards in China.  Nan Yu who played the second wife has won a few international awards. Her role perhaps generated the least sympathy, but she made a big adjustment that allowed the plot to move forward.

Taishen Cheng was the only one of the four leads not to have an IMDB photo, but had the most international experience.  He had a role in "Biutiful" with Javier Bardem.  He also played in the Chinese Mandarin version of "The Devotion of Suspect X," based on one of the best detective books I have read. 

The key to this movie is Xiaoshuai Wang who wrote and directed it.  He should be credited with eliciting some effective portrayals of the four main characters. Back in 1996 he used an alias to make a film to circumvent restrictive rules against independent films.  In 2001 he wrote and directed "Beijing Bicycle," with some resemblance to the classic "The Bicycle Thief," but even more class focused.  In 2003 he did "Drifters" which was about a man who had illegally emigrated to the States and had returned.  In "11 Flowers" there is more than a hint of political tensions.  A more recent movie is "Red Amnesia. " Xiaoshuai has received awards from the Berlin Films Festival (for "In love we Trrust and "Beijing Bicycle." and at Cannes (for "Shanghai Dreams"). 

"In Love we Trust" was put together carefully that the audience can feel the tension.  Sparse, but appropriate mood music provided by Wei Dou who later won an award for "The Equation of Love and Death."

Cinematography was provided by Di Wu who had done two previous films with Xiaoshuai before this one and went onto work on "Red Amnesia."  He also contributed to the mood in some cases using filters.

Editing was done by Hongyu Yang who had earlier worked on "Beijing Bicycle."  He also worked on the Mandarin adaption on "Miss Granny," a favorite Korean movie that reminded me of my wife's Grandmother, Nanny

I will be on the look out for more films by Xiaoshuai Wang.  At this moment this movie has left the most impressive feeling of 2018.

POPULATION CRISIS

As the world modernizes the birth rate is dropping.  Many think the world is over populated and that that is the root cause of pollution and climate change.  The population decline is basically in westernized countries and as that culture expands the population decline also spreads.  A declining birth rate also means an aging population and less people of normal working age to do the work which will increasingly include taking care of the elderly.  Immigrants fill in a lot of gaps, mostly at the cheap labour end, but also in many cases technical.  Many residents resent different cultures being imposed on them.  Japan is leading the world in using robots in manufacturing as one way of avoiding immigration.

There is a very complicated  set of dynamics at work.  Education, contraception and inequality are amongst factors that lower birth rates.  Women are increasingly getting better educated and looking for fulfilment outside maternity.  In other parts of the world we are developing an unhealthy gender ratio with men outnumbering women.  This is partly due to new technologies increasingly available that determine sex before birth.  Eventually, this results in not enough women for marriageable men.   In China where they have had a one child policy for many years the situation is acute.  When there is a shortage of females, males tend to be more aggressive and although it might seem to give women an advantage it doesn't always work that way.  Prostitution is one unhappy solution to the scarcity.

Women are still held down and restricted in many cultures while in western cultures economic forces many women to work long hours, especially those who want a career.   Those wanting to have careers lose out if pregnant.  If they decide to go ahead it is too often the case that childcare suffers.  If you get down to root causes, one has to do with wealth and income being concentrated at the top.  At the same time that the economy seems to depend on consumerism we now need both parents working to maintain an acceptable standard of living.  Financial crises occur when credit is over stretched in this struggle, often aided by greed and fraud of those who control commerce.  Business requires expansion to grow with a heavy emphasis on consumerism.

Some experts are waking up that we Westerners need more babies to manage our economy, but women are not co-operating (often with their husband's blessing).  Even a temporary absence from the labour force can impose hardship and having more mouths to feed increases pressure.  Some governments feel threatened that their enemies are breeding faster than they are, after all we still need soldiers to intimidate and even sometimes be sacrificed.  Businesses need a steady stream of new consumers, especially since babies assure greater, unquestioned expenditures and the aging cut their spending as they anticipate retirement.

Many governments are aware of the need and have offered incentives.  Sometimes cash bonuses.  The most effective incentives are family friendly policies.  Paid maternity leave might well have the most impact on first borns.  Some countries are very flexible and allow part of the leave time to be used by fathers called paternity leave.  This would allow mothers who sometimes can make more money to get back to work while being assured their newborn is taken care of by their husband.  Some fathers are happy with this arrangement.  In the United States as I understand it some companies who are able to afford it and feel it is in their best interests offer an unpaid or limited paid leave but most companies consider it too expensive and risky.  It is really a society problem and a government program paid through taxes can spread satisfaction that promotes productivity and better childcare which is a good investment in our overall happiness. ,

That is one step, but another important one is child care.  Quality means training, space, flexibility and of course that costs money.  In reality the costs would be more than a typical family can afford.  Of course this conundrum has costs that will be borne by both businesses with stressed employees and society with stressed children.  It is conceivable that the solution of having the tax payer bear a big part of the costs could have other benefits.  Trained child care workers could be part of a jobs program as our economy has less need of human labour.  They would be tax payers and consumers.

The whole tax structure needs to be family friendly.  We have deductions for having children and for child care (that is if the provider is willing to disclose their income).  We should also be thinking of the costs of education.  Education is normally free in the public system until about age 18 and then further education can be very costly.  Also the pressure to get ready for post secondary education leads many parents to buy tutoring and other educational aids.  All that needs to be examined.  One alternative would be to offer free high education to those who qualify.  A big task that somehow has to be paid for.

An irony is that future trends point to greater inequality.  Not only in income and wealth, but also in hours worked.  Some will work so hard they burn out and others will scramble to get any paying work.  Is this what we want?  Does this benefit the most people?  Can the very rich accept sharing some of their resources with the less fortunate?  Can the poor resist abusing their ballot box power which at the moment they seem ignorant they actually have?  With our increased efficiencies can we not give everyone an opportunity to work and to have more leisure time?

So far globalization has mostly meant a decline in the power of labour.  Demand too much money and the job is easily shipped overseas or replaced with automation. or someone more desperate.  Money can be concentrated and wired anywhere in the world where it can earn the most return.  There are other forms of globalization in that people of all incomes are more aware of one another and of their common interests.  Divide and conquer tactics are still being used effectively, but for how long?  If too long everyone will suffer, including the wealthy.  Pollution, climate change, disease are only some of the dangers.  A bigger one might be violent revolution on an unimagined scale.  All these things are pushing forward, but can be stopped by humans realizing their common goals and working together.

To me more important than government bureaucrats deciding details of our personal lives it would be better to encourage education.  Education that not only teaches us skills to survive as productive citizens, but encourages us to think about global problems as well as local ones.  This may seem like a Utopian dream, but there are elements working towards a better system.  Let's hope that they can forge an effective global force before it is too late.  Education is a very big topic and difficult for large agreement.

Prejudice against women is ironic as it only takes an absence to make them more valuable.  Unfortunately many women are deliberately kept ignorant so they won't interfere with male priorities and so their wisdom is lost.  In some cultures a women who can earn an income is even more valuable.  It is still another step for women to be valued for who they are.   The role of women is key--they need to be valued and respected, not just good in the kitchen and bedroom.

In many countries it has become difficult for parents to make enough money and to spare enough time for their families.  This is at a time when corporate profits are rising and typical wages losing power.  Decisions will have to be made by those who presently control the political and economic levers or they may find the forces of nature will severely limit their options.

One of the primary goals is to ensure that every baby is wanted and can be properly cared for.  We need a sustainable population where there are always some contributors to replace those who are not able to contribute while at the same time respecting the wisdom of age.  There are too many unwanted babies born or to those who cannot or will not give reasonable proper care.  Contraception can largely replace the need for abortions.  Ironically access to contraception is one factor in ensuring the birth of wanted babies.  One child policies should be unnecessary to restrict overpopulation.

Greed is often of only short term value.  Even the very wealthy need people to care for them.  They need customers.  When diversity is lost, so is the enjoyment of life.  So while parts of the world are aging, other parts are over worked.  No suggestion or policy will undo the mess our lack of a sustainable balanced population has brought us to, but we can  make a start.

"The Sibling Effect" a book review about most people's longest relationship

I hesitate to get into this book as it hits a lot of nerves and it will for many of you.  The author Jeffrey Kluger, a senior writer at Time magazine has a lot of personal connections to the topic.  He is forthright in his personal life which helps the reader understand our own childhood and relationships.

Jeffrey brings up his own personal situation in stages to illustrate different points.  He is the second born of four boys and was brought up by a somewhat abusive father and addicted mother, that is until a few pages later we learn his parents divorced.  Still later we learn his mother remarries and for a short time he lives in a blended family that now includes two girls.  After learning that doesn't work out we learn that his father remarries and has twins, a boy and a girl.  We learn that his older brother comes out of the closet (not quite following a trend).  He himself has two girls and his wife was in the middle of two brothers in a Mexican family.  His own feelings in relating to siblings and parents will remind many readers of their own feelings.

He brings up all sorts of studies concerned about birth order, size of family, gender mixing that offer explanations for phenomena many of us have experienced, allowing for exceptions to every rule.  He brings up special cases like only children, twins, triplets the effects of divorce, etc.  Siblings provide relationships that help us cope with the world, but for some children cousins perform that same function.  In China with its one child policy, one thing that is overlooked is that the parents are often only children as well and that means there are no aunts or uncles or cousins to keep families together.

I am the oldest of six, my wife is the oldest of 3 and for over 20 years we lived with our oldest daughter and her younger brother.  In many ways it is easy to identify how we fit the trends.  Three of us fit a general profile of the first born.  I have some kind of relationship with four of my siblings, but one is estranged, though not through the wishes of the rest of us.  I know my first cousins and occasionally connect with them.  On my wife's side there was a much greater connection among brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles and cousins.

One contention of the author which I hadn't thought about was that siblings are very often the longest and closest of all our relationships.  It is normal to have siblings only a few years older or younger than you, but even with bigger age gaps you share a lot in common that outsiders really can't quite understand.  Usually you know your siblings longer than any other people you relate to including parents, spouses, co-workers, even friends.  There is a strength in family that most of us can count on, and that all of us should cultivate.