A Map of the New Normal from Jeff Rubin

Previous blog on this book was accidentally deleted.  Actually read the book for a 2nd time.  The circumstances have changed a bit, but I understand a bit better what the author was trying to point out.

The world certainly has changed in the last few years.  The Covid 19 Pandemic and the Russian assault on Ukraine are two factors.  Jeff Rubin contends between sanctions, the Russian invasion and inflation we have made a new world that will affect everyone.

 One movement identified by Rubin was that nations that have been sanctioned by the United States have been forming new relationships.  Trump has made tariffs a big part of his economic warfare.  Canada and Mexico have been targeted although they are allies and have their economies tied into America.  They are being forced to consider alternatives.

Covid 19 cut supply chains and governments decided to print money and we have been adjusting since.  One of the adjustments was inflation.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has spurred sanctions, but it is no longer like in the past.  Russia can now join other countries with sanctions such as Iran and China.  The BRICS group has greatly increased and the members take advantage of new ties at the expense of the United States and other western powers.  Now Canada finds itself looking for new trade connections.

Russia and Ukraine are both major food exporters.  Ukrainian wheat and other agricultural products are necessities for many third world countries.  Climate change, although considered a "hoax" by Donald Trump is having an impact on food supplies and very much on immigration patterns.  Continued avoidance will lead to ever increasing consequences.  China is buying up farmland in Africa.

At one time the United States had an arrangement with Saudi Arabia that all purchases of their oil were in American dollars.  Other oil producers took up the same arrangement that boosted the American currency.  Now however that is no longer the case and the oil producers led by Saudi Arabia accept a wide variety of currencies.

China is becoming the major money lender and they no longer are favoring the United States as in the past.  They are also dominant in rare earth metals buying up mining rights in Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia.  Chinese cheap skilled labor is still critical for many companies such as Apple.

Trump became president since completion of the book.  Rubin predicted that Ukraine would lose leverage.

The map of the world is now topsy turvey and going in different directions.  Jeff Rubin keeps an eye on it.  Good to read his books.

How Borders Make and Break Our World

Borders are lines.  The lines represent control.  The author starts off with some concepts we take for granted and gives fascinating examples of how some borders have been set.  Then he steers us to the future and how we will have to adjust our thinking.

Humans have been making territories for thousands of years.  Mainly to protect what they consider their own.  

In Scandinavia we are told about boundary procedures between Norway and Sweden which have the longest European boundary between two nations  One interesting aspect was a recognition of the Sami who herd deer across those two nations plus Finland and Russia.  The Sami were involved in the foundation of the World Council of Indigenous People.  

The Roman Empire was pretty impressive in its extent.  I had been told as a young student that Hadrian's Wall was built to keep out the fierce Scots.  The author points out it really marked the northern most boundary of the Empire.

China is known for the Great Wall.   Modern times have called for new measures.  The concern is to keep out undesirable messages from the outside world.  Incidentally to keep discontent inside.  In 1998 China built its first firewall out of fiber optics.  It required a lot of manpower as monitors.  Other countries, such as Russia, Iran, Egypt and Venezuela found the Chinese strategies could be copied to help keep out western notions.

Israel and Palestine had been subject to a lot of historical factors.  In 1947 the United Nations recommended for the creation of two independent states; one for the Jews and one for the Arabs with the city of Jerusalem being an international city.  Military action went against the Arabs and their found their territory being occupied.  The border became controlled by the Israelis and they started exploiting the Arab lands by destroying such things as olive trees and setting up housing for Jews.  Israel has received more support from the Americans (evangelicals a key element) than Palestine received from Arab nations.

Charles Mason and Jeremiah Dixon two English surveyors were hired to settle the border between Pennsylvania and Maryland that had earlier been bounded by two different royal grants.  One step in the procedure was to use detailed astronomical measurements. The Mason-Dixon came to be associated with the division between the North and the South.  The fugitive slave law allowed bounty hunters to cross the line to retrieve escaped slaves.  Relating this story to an American visitor this past weekend I was told that Toledo was mis-located in Ohio as it actually when proper surveying should have been in Michigan.  This was so disruptive that it was decided to keep the borders the same.  To compensate Michigan was awarded the Upper Peninsula that had no land connections.

 North America had their divisions before Europeans began to impose their own lines.  The indigenous tribes were concerned also about hunting grounds and food growing areas.  The French, Spanish and English carved up most of North America and the lines changed with wars and treaties.  A Mexican Revolution created an independent nation.  By 1848 Americans attacked Mexicans and the net result was a redrawing of the border with the Americans taking over all of California, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah and Texas and parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Wyoming.  Many of the people in those areas considered themselves Mexicans or indigenous.

Donald Trump  announced his candidacy for President with claims that he would build a wall that Mexico would pay for.  Appealing to a large segment he promised he would stop the murderers and rapists.  What is overlooked is that America needs immigrants to keep their economy going.

Pandemic have crossed borders for centuries.  The Black plague cut European populations more than half and was little understood.  One of the first strategies was to isolate victims.  Venice added ten days to a previous standard of 30 days isolation.  To get better protection they extended their watch and were able to divert ships from heading their way.  In effect they extended their borders.

Covid 19 intensified protections.  Immigration and tourism was halted while each nation tried to impose their restrictions.  Trade was greatly impeded and a common excuse for inflation was supply chain problems.  I remember reading years ago that the Japanese developed the concept of Just In Time Inventory which during Covid was upended.  We are still recovering, but have learned a few things including co-operating with other nations behind other borders.

Climate change is affecting everyone, although not evenly.  Your geographic location is key, but so is your wealth.  The author brings efforts in Africa to our attention.  A big concern is the spread of desert regions.  One strategy is to plant trees, but although lots of trees have been planted it has not worked.  Poor natives have found wood to be one of the valuable assets they have access to.  New strategies put a greater emphasis on soil restoration.

Ceuta and Melilla are two Spanish posts at the northern tip of Africa.  They are like magnets for refugees from sub Saharan Africa.  The Spanish Government has fortified both locations, but no matter the barriers the refugees keep coming.  Like the United States border draws refugees from Ecuador, Honduras and Mexico.  For many they really could be classified as climate change refugees.  

Americans and Europeans think the hordes of people are mostly just seeking economic benefits which is true, but tied into loss of opportunities due to climate change.  Those most affected by climate change are also the most poor and had little to do with causing climate change.   Humans have always sought better land when natural circumstances have changed.  Movement hindered by borders.

While mankind has spent tremendous effort to shore up lines other forces such as climate change and pandemics have shown little respect for these lines.  A political force in America and Europe is to fight immigration tooth and nail.  But maybe it is time to declare global citizenship and tackle the problems that really affect us all. 

Some more relevant thoughts:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2022/04/move.html

Two Trees Make a Forest--A Canada Reads nomination

Taiwan reaches our attention mainly because of threats from China.   Jessica J. Lee the author of "Two Trees Make a Forest" doesn't dwell on the potential crisis, but perhaps let the readers appreciate the uniqueness of the island nation.  Became aware of this book during the Canada Reads program that highlighted five books written by Canadians.

 Jessica's maternal grandparents were both born in mainland China, but fled to Taiwan when Communist forces took over China.  Her grandfather had been a fighter pilot who fought against the Japanese during the Sino-Japanese War and WWII.  After joining the Flying Tigers de had received some of his training in United States.  Her grandmother had worked as a secretary for the Nationalist government whose parents chose to stay in Nanjing after the Communists controlled the country.  

Jessica's mother was born in Taiwan and endured long separations from her father.  Eventually both  parents felt the Nationalists were too corrupt and migrated to Canada and settled in Niagara Falls,  Despite their proven skills they ended up as cleaners.  Her mother married a Welsh man and had lost most contacts with her Chinese relatives.  They found a telephone bill that had two numbers on it which eventually connected them to relatives in both Taiwan and mainland China. 

When the Nationalists took over Taiwan they instituted martial law that last 38 years.  Censorship was very restrictive.  Not only were references to Marxism blocked, but words that resembled such as Mark Twain and Max Weber.  In October 1971, Taiwan was expelled from the United Nations to be replaced by the People's Republic of China. 

Jessica decided she wanted to visit Taiwan.  As an award winning nature writer she wanted to focus on such things as botany, geology, birds, etc. Read more at her website:  https://www.jessicajleewrites.com/

Geology  is important.  One factor brought out is that 75% of the land is on a slope.   To the left is an example of building on a slope.  Taiwan has lots of earthquake activity and some volcanic.  Most of the quakes are low on the Richter scale.  As a contrast Jessica recalls a 5.4 scale earthquake in southern Ontario was very scary, but her mother who had grown up in Taiwan did not notice.  Seismology was started by the Japanese with the some English contributions and today have developed a network that will help to respond to quakes.  The last severe quake in 1999 helped to create a lake.

Note on the Richter scale:  The scale is  use a base-10 logarithm meaning each magnitude 10 times stronger than the previous one.  This translates to a magnitude 2 is 10 times more intense than a 1 and a 3 magnitude is 100 times more intense than the 1.

 Indigenous tribes formed in Taiwan over 5,000 years ago and resisted as best they could the Chinese, the Japanese, the Spaniards, the Portuguese and the Dutch. They now amount to less than 3% of the population.   Jessica noted the Japanese, Dutch and Brits contributed to botany, geology and zoology.  

As an island edemism is a feature.  Edemism basically means  the process where new species adapting to unique conditions  evolve and are localized.  One example that has been revived is the black faced spoonbill, not found elsewhere.   Taiwan has 60 mammal species that are unique to their country and contribute to global biodiversity along with birds and flora.

 

Trees form a critical role in Taiwan. Earthquakes also cause landslides and the Taiwanese have developed methods of dealing with them.  A key element is planting trees.  The forests had been decimated around the coasts to make way for farms and fisheries.  Lumber had been a major export.  By 1991 the government realized the importance of trees and enacted legislation to ban logging in natural forests.  They encountered tree poachers who could make a lot of money with little effort.  Forest rangers found one method to combat the poachers was to develop a DNA data base to identify tree poachers.  The government has found the trees are a boost to tourism as well as strengthening hillsides in the event of earthquakes.

Some earlier contacts with Canada Reads :

http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/09/indian-horse-by-richard-wagamese.html

http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2018/10/canada-reads.html 

http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2020/09/the-book-of-negroes.html

and  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2021/10/terry-fallis-with-little-humour.html

The two photos were taken by my son, Michael Davidson on a trip to Taiwan a few years ago. 

China and the NBA

How would you believe a few words, "Stand for Hong Kong" could cause such a response?  There was the Chinese end of it and then there was the NBA response.  No question that money rules the world.

The Chinese public never knew of the brief Twitter as it was blocked.  Also they do not get an honest explanation for the Hong Kong riots.  When you are autocratic and with enough leverage you can force your will on anyone who wants to do business with you.

The morals of the story are obvious in that powerful bullies don't worry about morals.  Plenty of others have commented on the morals.  What can be done?

As long as we worship money (and it is pretty important to me) we are obligated to do things we would not otherwise do--including much of work or keeping your mouth shut.  Looking around the world many established companies (and those hoping to gain traction) see China with its huge population and growing middle class as the best available opportunity.

China has its own sensitivities.  They feel they are overcoming humiliation and resent any reminder vestiges.  Having colonials impose their will on the Chinese people who felt they had a glorious history can make you a bit touchy.  There are different languages, different cuisines, but they are united under an autocratic government. We hear of conflicts involving Tibet (the Dalai Lama is my hero), Taiwan and the Uighurs.  To "control" the population the authorities have imposed censorship not only within their nation but to outsiders hoping to make inroads.

On one side of the bargaining table are greedy entrepreneurs salivating over the huge numbers of potential customers.  On the other side is someone wanting to please their customers (their citizens wanting a higher standard of living).  It may seem uneven between our side and the Chinese, but we do have things they want--our markets, our technology and ideas, our resources and some of the razzle dazzle we take for granted.  On top of that there is a natural human craving for more freedom.

Can the tail wag the dog?  We do have leverage.  The Chinese like lots of western things including the NBA.  When Yao Ming  made it to the NBA that generated a lot of national pride as well as interest in basketball.  A few other Chinese have played lesser roles.  A few years back, Jeremy Lin (of Taiwanese heritage) created "Linsanity" where he won a number of games with the last shot.  Many Chinese people would be upset if they couldn't get their NBA "fix."  It is doubtful that Chinese would give up Olympic aspirations for basketball which ensures interest will continue.  Everyone wants to see the best and aspires to be a part of it.

Adam Silver did salvage a little dignity by declaring individuals have the right to express themselves.  On other issues he has been very commendable and one can hope he will get back to form.

Citizens of the world are better off when we share culture.  Westerners love cheap Asian goods and exotic culture.  It is a two way street which most of us enjoy when we are able to expand our interests.  The Chinese are no different.  They are just fascinated by different cultures as we are.  All efforts to boost cultural exchanges are to be encouraged.

What we have that Chinese people want as much as anyone is relative freedom.  We can pretty well say whatever we want, listen to whatever we want, seek pleasure in whatever direction.  They don't fully know this, but we can try to expand their awareness.  When they cut off coverage of the Houston Rockets (and NBA champion Toronto Raptors) and LeBron James there are bound to be disappointed people, including people with some measure of power.  While we are being seduced by potential riches they are being seduced by western culture.

Technology is being used to create another iron curtain or maybe one should say cyber curtain.  China can try to isolate itself, but that will create resentment among the people.   Hong Kong is unique, but they are perhaps on the front lines of freedom.  If they can hold out it will be harder and harder for authorities to keep the truth from the rest of China. 

Perhaps this issue got my attention as I love basketball and have been involved for over 60 years.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/06/my-60-year-love-affair-with-basketball.html

The Chinese are bringing more of the culture to the rest of the world with movies.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2014/08/chinese-cinema-is-peek-into-their_1.html

The photo is from a Chinese movie I thought was well worth watching with some insight into one child policy.

JEFF RUBIN AND THE CHANGING ROLE OF FOSSIL FUELS

In a previous book Jeff was noted for his contention that the price of oil would rise and amongst many other effects would restore local manufacturing as transportation costs would force investors to bring factories closer to consumers.  In this book during the year it took to write he found himself editing from the future tense to present tense.  So far it seems his predictions are close to reality.


The price at the pump is significantly lower while at the same time the cost of extracting oil is going up.  Renewables are playing only a small role, but technology has found new ways to extract energy and demand has slowed.  The Saudi Arabians have decided to keep flooding the market to drive out high cost producers.  The technology while improving production is more costly and also aggravating environmental.  A lot of ground is covered and it is well argued.     .

Canada is in a very vulnerable position and it could have been predicted (not by me) that when the price comes down there will be unhappy consequences.  Or perhaps they knew, but hoped that they could reap some short term benefits.  When the price was up Canadian tourists enjoyed an advantage, but manufacturers lost business.  Now as the exchange rate favours manufacturers some ground may be recovered.  Lack of refineries especially those that can handle bitumen. adds to the problem.

Pipelines  are necessary to get oil to where it is wanted cheaply.  Unfortunately for Stephen Harper natives and environmentalists have succeeded in blocking his efforts within Canada.  British Columbia feels there is too much risk and not enough revenue to justify any pipelines.  Provinces to the east are also resistant.  In the meantime the railroad is benefitting with greatly increased oil traffic.  Warren Buffet who lives in Nebraska where the Keystone Pipeline would cross and a Obama supporter has literally invested billions in rail lines and oil tankers.

China has become a focal point, but investors have become too dependent on it without understanding all the underlying dynamics.  Major cities are suffering severe pollution and the bureaucrats and political powers recognize they have to do something.  A lot of consequences.  They are now willing to talk about climate change and offer to make concessions.  One of the biggest concessions is to use less coal which in turn affects countries like Australia and Canada that supplied coal.  Indirectly it is causing the economy to slow down and that in turn means less imports.  With pollution concerns driving policies oil consumption will decline aggravated by a slower economy.

Jeff is essentially an investment advisor and where there are problems there are also opportunities.  Growing season will move northward.  Prairies are already increasingly growing corn.  Wine is developing in Okanagan, Niagara and Prince Edward counties amongst others while traditional wine areas will be negatively affected by climate change.

Water will be as valuable as oil.  It will be in demand especially amongst Americans, but there will be environmental as well as political concerns.  As an investment Rubin suggests farmland in Canada has a great future.  One way is just to buy the land and lease it out, but there are other methods suggested by the author going through institutions.

I am not sure what to expect from the next Jeff Rubin book, but I plan to read it.

Syria, what a mess!

There are no good choices at this point.  No one should be condemned for however they vote or even for their motivation.  There are undoubtedly many who want to be associated with the majority without delving into the issues.  I do not understand all the issues and admit that it is more complex than can be dealt with in a short blog.

Part of the problem goes back to my biggest pet peeve which is short term thinking.

One primary problem is that America (and most of the rest of the world) feel most comfortable dealing with whoever is in power.  At some stage we are complicit in maintaining the status quo.  We can be self righteous about being superior and conscious that everything is not fair under a particular jurisdiction, but our tendency is to protect our own short term interest and do business with just about anyone.

China and Russia are in the equation and have decided that their best interest lies in supporting the Syrian government.  Russia sells weaponry to Syria.  China needs to keep all energy options open. Both are authoritarian and fear the idea of a successful revolution.  Oversimplified perhaps, but trying to overcome their UN security council veto could lead to further tension.

Iran is a player as it is allied with Syria.  Finally Iran has elected someone who is more open to solving the nuclear dilemma.  With few allies and a load of rhetoric, Iran has to be concerned to maintain its alliances.  At the same time some Westerners feel that striking against Syria is weakening Iran and perhaps forcing them to be more compliant.

In the Middle East an always underlying concern is Israel.  One really pertinent connection is the Golan Heights where Israel has conquered land they now feel is a buffer.  Israel has bombed Syria to cut nuclear development.  Part of the Syrian opposition comes from Islamists who see an opportunity to overthrow a government that is relatively tolerant of Christians and Jews and install a more fundamentalist  regime.  They are not looking for a two state solution, but many would work towards destroying Israel.

Israel is fearful of what its neighbors intend.  Palestinians are resentful and many are desperate. Israel has more powerful friends in the United States that protect it with money, weapons, political decisions including a UN veto.  There are many who want a two state solution, but others who feel more secure by occupying Palestine.  Still others on both sides have given up on the two state solution. Alleviating fear requires courage, patience and understanding.

Refugees have fled to Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and others.  In such numbers they create logistical problems and potentially are an unknown political force.

Recently became aware of another factor which you can read in more depth at http://billmoyers.com/2013/09/06/drought-helped-spark-syrias-civil-war-is-it-the-first-of-many-climate-wars-to-come/  I am struck at the number of people who belittle climate change, but their points strike me as being politically/economically linked.  Climate scientists for the most part seem very reluctant to draw links from climate change to weather problems such as hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts, but the links seem stronger almost daily.  I recall that the Arab Spring started with a protest of one man in Tunisia who was affected by food prices.  Food prices were affected by drought.  This is only one factor, but really unemployed youth and food prices have been critical.

Should the United States use a military strike against Syria and if so how can they contain it?  The risks are very high that the best they can achieve a rebel victory or less likely a chastened Assad. They will inevitably fan anti-American hatred.   Who knows how Russia, China, Iran might react. Mideast turmoil seems inevitable.  If not resolved the same question might be asked--can a regime do whatever it wants to suppress its own people?  Will any nation feel they can do what they want even against American threats?

What alternatives are available?  America needs international support.  The United Nations is frozen by veto's allowed to only five countries.  The Arab League has its own factions.  Turkey is a Muslim country that is negatively impacted by Syrian refugees and occasional stray bombs.  They have concerns over Kurds, another complicating issue itself.  Can United States afford to be the world's policeman without at least some economic support.

The Americans have been hurt and embarrassed by the efforts of the George W Bush government to deceive them with false information (some of which was deliberate) regarding the Iraq invasion.  I think they were stunned that the Iraqi people resisted and then learned that they had opened a hornet's nest.  At the same time a new President finds himself dealing with a polarized electorate.  A part of the electorate seems to feel that Obama is a Muslim or sympathetic to radical Muslims.  Seems ridiculous, but not something that can be ignored.  For some this seems an opportunity to make him look bad while on the other side some think this is an opportunity with respect to dealing with the sequester problem as well as the debt ceiling.  Some support as they feel the need to support a president, others to send a message about chemical warfare.  Others feel that we need to commit to democracy.

The rest of the world has its own perspective.  They are split in that they mostly seem to think that the Syrian government is guilty of using chemical weapons against their own people, but are skeptical of any course of action.  They fear potential spread of violence, even world war.

Are there alternatives?  I can't see a risk free short term alternative and either striking or not striking sends a powerful message with horrific consequences very likely.

The United Nations was created to deal with these types of problems, but many see a single country veto as insurmountable obstacle.  At the time it was thought to be an inducement to get participation of the winning Allies.  Since then many changes have occurred and newly empowered nations such as India, Brazil and others are left out.  My solution would be to negotiate a new deal such as a veto of one of the selected countries (or even two or three) can be overcome by 2/3 votes of General Assembly members representing 2/3 of the world's population.  China is a delicate issue as they might feel ganged up with a too low a population requirement as they represent approximately 25% of the world population.  This would also empower India.  We don't want them to have an effective veto based on population, but to gain their co-operation we don't want them to feel too threatened. This will only happen when the original veto holders see it in their best interest to accept world opinion.

The International Criminal Court is another  possible solution.  One of its weaknesses is that United States will not join as they feel they will be ganged upon.  Other countries resist to protect themselves.  Perhaps the UN veto and the International Criminal Court membership issues can be negotiated together. Perhaps that is naive, but other forces are making it a little more possible.

One of those forces is climate change.  It affects everyone, although not evenly.  The biggest problem is  distrust of science and economic short term self interest.  We in North America and Europe need to realize food prices even in remote parts of the world can have global effects.  We need to realize that floods, droughts, hurricanes although natural are being aggravated by our actions on an international scale.  War is one of the consequences.  To provide our own security in our backyard we need to be concerned about forces in areas we haven't given much thought to.

Did I cover all the issues?  Definitely not, but I hope that more people take a long term view so we can minimize future damage and get on the course to a more logical future for all mankind.  Syria is a mess, but it didn't happen overnight.

ENERGY AND OUR FUTURE, RISING POWERS AND OUR SHRINKING PLANET

A few weeks ago I finished a book that covered up until just before the 2008 American election, "Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet" by Michael T Klare.  It is another of the books that is basically ignored by those who could most fix the identified problems.

First contention is that traditional sources of energy are becoming scarcer as more parts of the world are getting more desperate to get their share (really more than their share).  Second contention  is that while that is going on global climate change threatens to accelerate and the author believes the first problem will take away resources to deal with it.

Bottom line is that we as a planet are running out of time, but are oblivious to the problem.  I think we have all heard fearful predictions and just rush ahead with our life.  There is very little that most of us can do and we can become unsociable by trying to go beyond that.

When China and India the two biggest new players in the oil procurement race realized that they were really just bidding up the price when they competed for the same deals.  They joined together for their mutual benefit.  Michael had suggested that this pattern should be expanded to include research and manufacturing co-ordination with the ideal partners being United States and China or China and Japan.  During the Cold War when fears of nuclear conflict were at their highest Russia and United States took steps to cool things down with Summit meetings.  Now would not be too soon to start summits over scarcity of energy resources that would also allow greater efforts for the alternatives.

The second book, "The Race for What's Left" brings the readers more up to date.  Most of the easy hanging fruit of energy has been taken.


Conflicts over access to energy or distribution of revenues are becoming more common. It is obvious to me that the problem is exacerbated in the political arena.  There are so many books and presentations that have pointed out at least part of the problem.  I suspect that some of the people in power do understand the urgency, but are bogged down in the reality of global politics.  There are other powerful blocks of decision makers who are working against solving the problem i.e. those who think they can lose more by changing--those invested in current energy

Very few new oil fields are being discovered and they tend to be smaller and more inaccessible.  In general the energy sources that we have been relying on are fraught with political stresses and environmental concerns

In the second book Michael Klare discusses minerals and food, recognizing that they are also under pressure..

Some examples.  In Afghanistan the Chinese have bought mineral rights, but Americans are resentful. In the Arctic global warming is melting ice, but creating ice bergs and five nations are taking steps to grab as big a share as possible--United States, Russia, Canada, Norway and Denmark.  The Chinese by undercutting, and avoiding environmental constraints cornered the market on essential rare earth minerals and then cut off Japan who had offended them.  Russia cut off Ukraine from gas supplies in the winter.

Food is now part of the diminishing resources.  Saudi Arabia has bought large tracts of land in 'Ethiopia to safeguard future food supplies.  They are not nearly alone.  China has bought up farming land in several African nations.  They offer a sweet deal to the national government, both of whom overlook the people that are already using the same land (without recognized land deeds).  China, United States and Russia have found that offering military arms gives them the inside track.

Corruption seems to follow many deals.  The leaders at the top take the cream and those at the bottom are often boxed in more securely than before.  Part of the deal often includes military and police weaponry.  The Chinese boast that they do not interfere with the internal politics of those countries they do business with, but that is very hollow.  They usually knowingly reinforce the established status quo. Corruption seems to be the norm in many countries coming into sudden oil/mineral wealth.  It does not flow to the people.

Corporations are struggling against one another.   Nations are becoming more and more involved in negotiations.   Russia discouraged one international company by suddenly enforcing environmental laws that had been ignored allowing Russians to take back.

I wondered what has been going on since he wrote his book. One response is here  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-t-klare/the-energy-wars-heat-up_b_1505934.html

Michael T. Klare uncovers for me geo political stresses that I was unaware of.  He believes that more and more future geopolitcal news will reflect the results of fights for resources or disasters because of desperate searching for resources.  I believe him and expect that more of the news that will dominate our medium will be resource and environment oriented.  Do we just absorb the information or do we do something?

"The Sibling Effect" a book review about most people's longest relationship

I hesitate to get into this book as it hits a lot of nerves and it will for many of you.  The author Jeffrey Kluger, a senior writer at Time magazine has a lot of personal connections to the topic.  He is forthright in his personal life which helps the reader understand our own childhood and relationships.

Jeffrey brings up his own personal situation in stages to illustrate different points.  He is the second born of four boys and was brought up by a somewhat abusive father and addicted mother, that is until a few pages later we learn his parents divorced.  Still later we learn his mother remarries and for a short time he lives in a blended family that now includes two girls.  After learning that doesn't work out we learn that his father remarries and has twins, a boy and a girl.  We learn that his older brother comes out of the closet (not quite following a trend).  He himself has two girls and his wife was in the middle of two brothers in a Mexican family.  His own feelings in relating to siblings and parents will remind many readers of their own feelings.

He brings up all sorts of studies concerned about birth order, size of family, gender mixing that offer explanations for phenomena many of us have experienced, allowing for exceptions to every rule.  He brings up special cases like only children, twins, triplets the effects of divorce, etc.  Siblings provide relationships that help us cope with the world, but for some children cousins perform that same function.  In China with its one child policy, one thing that is overlooked is that the parents are often only children as well and that means there are no aunts or uncles or cousins to keep families together.

I am the oldest of six, my wife is the oldest of 3 and for over 20 years we lived with our oldest daughter and her younger brother.  In many ways it is easy to identify how we fit the trends.  Three of us fit a general profile of the first born.  I have some kind of relationship with four of my siblings, but one is estranged, though not through the wishes of the rest of us.  I know my first cousins and occasionally connect with them.  On my wife's side there was a much greater connection among brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles and cousins.

One contention of the author which I hadn't thought about was that siblings are very often the longest and closest of all our relationships.  It is normal to have siblings only a few years older or younger than you, but even with bigger age gaps you share a lot in common that outsiders really can't quite understand.  Usually you know your siblings longer than any other people you relate to including parents, spouses, co-workers, even friends.  There is a strength in family that most of us can count on, and that all of us should cultivate.