FEAR :ANOTHER ANTI TRUMP BOOK

The title comes from a quote by Donald J Trump to Bob Woodward and Robert Costa in March of 2016, "Real power is--I don't even want to use the word--fear."  He has said so many things, but perhaps this is the core of his philosophy.  First learned of this title from Fareed Zakaria.

Bob Woodward, of Watergate fame has found a style that helps to uncover interesting information.  He conducts interviews as for background meaning he does not attribute quotes. His sources seem quite willing to provide some juicy details.  He had also done a lot of research of media information.  The book is full of details of interactions of the supporting cast who mostly tried to prevent Trump from doing a lot of what he wanted to.

You want to read this book quickly, because although it points in the direction Trump is headed it also is outdated as the live narrative is changing every day.  It carries up to about March 2018.  Trump continues to make inflammatory tweets and statements and Bob Mueller seems to quietly get more incriminating information.  "Fear" does give a fuller understanding of the background behind the headlines.

Going back to 2010 Trump decided to explore how he might run for president.  He had generally been pro choice, but agreed to publicly become pro life.  He had been donating slightly more to Democrats than Republicans, but explained that was because Democrats controlled much of urban projects and he needed to grease the wheels.  Steve Bannon said he needed to donate to Republican causes, but doubted he would because his donations were more related to what he wanted to buy, sell and develop to make money.

Some bits of advice he learned.  Steve Bannon felt  Hilary talked too much like a politician which hurt her credibility even when telling the truth.  Kellyanne Conway advised to not bother with national polls, but to focus on the Electoral College where he could leverage his resources better.

As one reads of many private conversations touching on incidents we have read and heard about a couple of conclusions leap out.  Trump  has many preconceptions and shows little interest in understanding the complexities of many issues.  He always wants to project strength and prefers to intimidate those he considers opponents.  He never wants to admit he has been wrong about anything.  Ultimately everything revolves around him.  Lots of indications of mental instability.  Some of the interesting conversations are with Lindsay Graham, Steve Bannon, Reince Preibus and John Dowd.  Woodward talked to or about a lot of others.

Trump had had experience with bankrupticies and was not frightened by them.  He felt his negotiating skills included risking bankruptcy even on a federal basis.

In general Trump distrusted international commitments and organizations.  He genuinely felt America had been poorly treated by the rest of the world. 

Gary Cohn comes out as a reasonable man trying to restrain and educate Trump.  One issue was a sequence planned to deal with China.  They were to seek a coalition of allies to gang up on China regarding intellectual property theft. But before that got organized Trump insisted on imposing tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries as well as break up trade agreements.  Instead of accumulating allies for the original goal he alienated the prospect of a united front.  In the meantime Trump met the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping and felt he was a friend.  Cohn tried to explain that trade deficits were not bad, but failed and eventually resigned partially due to his failure.

Kim Jong Un, often considered a madman is not.  His father apparently executed scientists for their failures, but Kim has realized they need to learn from mistakes, thus advancing his nuclear and missile plans.  We are all aware of a twitter escalation of war threats, but behind the scenes Trump was planning a tweet to order military dependents in South Korea to leave which would have been a signal to North Korea of impending military action.  Fortunately he was deterred from the tweet.

Trump had made a campaign promise to repeal the "worst deal ever made" with Iran.  Many argued with him, but he was adamant.  Perhaps he was influenced by Israel supporters who feared Iran or maybe he was supporting Arab interests.  Personally I believe Saudi Arabia is the bigger trouble maker when compared to Iran, but the phobia against Iran is crippling.  As one observer pointed out Trump is friendlier towards North Korea.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2020/01/who-deserves-blame.html

The Mueller investigation according to sources is very distracting to Trump.  It is often difficult to get his attention, but more so when public announcements are made.  Woodward obviously talked with legal staff and recounts many conversations between Trump and John Dowd.  With no legal training I would have to conclude there is no proof that Trump directly colluded with the Russians.  The book closes with a fancied quote from John Dowd, "you're a fucking liar," not actually said to Trump's face.

MY THOUGHTS ON THE KAVANAUGH HEARINGS

It certainly is "political."  Of course individuals can and should be evaluated.  This experience is very upsetting and I felt the need to vent my frustration.  In a few hours this story will advance with likely repercussions no matter what.

Some would take it back to Anita Hill's participation in an earlier hearing.    I watched a documentary on that and felt her opinion didn't count for very much.  Most likely at least some of those in power felt it was not as important as getting a conservative on the bench.  Clarence Thomas was replacing a liberal black man, Thurgood Marshall.  They could have backed away and brought a different conservative to the Supreme Court, but the optics would not have been as good.  As it turns out Thomas is one of the most conservative judges.  Times have changed, but it still seems the male viewpoint is still dominant.

A key part of the Republican strategy is to tie their economic agenda (which favors the top 1%) to a social agenda that appeals to enough one issue voters so they will overlook their own economic self interest.  Gun rights is one element.  Gay rights is another element.  I would say the most critical element is abortion.   To us progressives these concerns plus their economic agenda seem not in the best interest of the 99%.  It seems that significant parts of the 1% are more liberal, but they put their money into divisive issues as they know that will get them more favorable economics such as lower taxes and less regulations.

Gay rights is emotional.  Ironically some of the gay haters actually inter-act with gays, but ones who are still in the closet.  As more gays open the closet more of us realize they are not so bad or even abnormal.  From a distance, their increased acceptance is threatening to some.

Abortion is a repulsive thing for almost everyone.  Everyone has the right to refuse an abortion for themselves and can use persuasive powers on friends and family.  That is not good enough for many who want to impose their feelings on everyone else.  Some concede a few exceptions and in fact when it hits them they will arrange it under cover.  I, too see it as murder, but I do not think it is my right to forbid someone else when they will suffer consequences.  To me the Republican conservatives are doing lots of counter productive things.  Contraception needs to be more accessible and sex education taught in school to significantly reduce abortion.

One other part of their strategy is to appeal to racist sentiments.  It helps to distract from the fact their policies hurt the poor.  They suggest blacks or Hispanics are the cause of the poor white man, not automation or outsourcing labour.  Everyone loses.

The social issues are most reflected in the Supreme Court.  They are the ones who legalized abortion and same sex marriages.  They also have given economic benefits to the very rich.  Probably the most effective pledge by Donald Trump was that he would put right thinking justices on the Supreme Court going so far as to promise future nominees would come from a list approved by conservatives.  I recall even a promise to overcome Roe v Wade.

When Antonin Scalia died unexpectedly it was only hours before Mitch McConnell declared that no Supreme Court nominations would be allowed so close to an election.  He had the power and realized this would appeal to the conservative base.  Barrack Obama selected Merrick Garland who was considered a moderate judge and older than the usual nominee.  It has become a strategy for both parties to pick younger judges as their influence will last longer.  These concessions made no difference to the Republicans.

In the run-up to the election it appeared the Democrats would indeed have a new mandate, but Trump realized the importance of the Supreme Court to his base and made that part of his platform.  A lot of other factors were critical to the result that to many diminish the justice of the election.  As mentioned in other blogs the Russians interfered, James Comey made some poorly timed and unnecessary announcements, gerrymandering and electoral College.  Earlier thoughts on that:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/07/trump-enablers.html

To replace Scalia without too much fuss Neil Gorsuch was confirmed.  He immediately adopted some conservative positions.

Anthony Kennedy decided he wanted to retire.  One detail not mentioned before is that his son worked for Deutsch Bank and had been the one that approved millions of dollars in loans to Donald Trump when most banks turned him down.  Apparently they offered to nominate Kavanaugh who had been one of Kennedy's clerks.

Trump has the power and sought advice on how best to fulfill his Supreme Court pledge.  Many names came up, but apparently Trump was struck by the fact that Brett Kavanaugh believed presidential powers could be expanded.  Trump had his own legal jeopardy and likely would want as much of a cushion as possible.

The Republicans certainly recognized the Supreme Court as a political objective.  They realized that the midterm elections were closing in and some recognized if they could put another young conservative on the court it would be appreciated by their base.  They also recognized there was a good chance they would lose control of the House of Representatives and possibly (but not likely) the Senate.  Some, such as Mitch McConnell felt that another conservative judge would be a worthy legacy.

A few details upsetting to progressives were uncovered (such as Kavanaugh's participation in the Bill Clinton impeachment and the George W Bush torture memos), but not enough for the Republicans to think of another conservative candidate.  A lot of controversy has been announced regarding the time it took for Christine Blasey Ford's accusation to reach the attention of the Senate judiciary committee.  Timing did complicate the matter, but the Republicans in my opinion reacted unseemly.  Sexual assault victims want to forget their ordeal and in this case confidentiality was wanted.  Eventually she realized the Supreme Court decision would be made without the information.

The Republicans realized it would look bad if old white men questioned the victim so they hired an experienced woman prosecutor.   It is hard to be sure, but her strategy seemed to be to develop inconsistencies in the accusation.  It didn't work.  When it came time to question Kavanaugh they sidelined their expert and each made an attack not so much of Ford's testimony as on the Democrats' ethics.

Many thought an FBI investigation would be a logical way to eliminate doubts, but that was resisted by the Republicans.  Lindsay Graham yelled his disgust with the process.

I don't know what will happen over the next few hours, nor do I know what the truth really is.  My own politics suggests America is headed for problems one way or another.

What I suspect happened is that Brett Kavanaugh did get so drunk he doesn't remember what he did.  He took great pains to say he did not black out and did not forget what happened while he drank.  He would have been better to have admitted the possibility that he did something regrettable while drunk and would like to make amends.  No one has accused him of actual rape.  My opinion might be sexist, but I believe we should all get second chances.

From my reading of her facial and body movements and her words it was hard not to believe Christine Blasey Ford.  I make no claims of infallibility.  Not so likely she mixed him up with another person.  She said what she remembered most that Kavanaugh and his friend laughed at her expense.

In this additional test of his acceptability Kavanaugh did not do well.  If he was truly innocent or at least thought he was, it was natural for him to be angry.  He undercut his previous claims of not being political by his charges of Democrat trickery.  He even suggested it was revenge for the Clintons.

Many good points were made by the Democratic interrogators.  I was impressed by Kamala Harris who pointed out that the Democrats had gone through the confirmation process with Neil Gorsuch and that the two men paralleled each other in many regards except there were no sexual allegations in the former case.  Of course the Democrats had their own agenda, but they have fallen far behind the Republican power structure.

One way or another the Republicans are likely to get their Supreme Court and many of the people who voted for it will suffer, but probably blame someone else.  Future nominations will be even more political.  Trump and other Republicans suggested that future candidates would be reluctant to go through the process and this I admit is true.