We desperately need another Nelson Mandela

This blog may seem rambling, because it is.  My belief is that everything is connected.  Unfortunately the weaknesses of mankind has a strangling influence.  Some of those in power cling to it with little regard to long term consequences.  Power has been centralized.  The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.  If something is not done (and soon) mankind seems destined for disaster.

Power is like a magnet for some individuals.  They visualize what they can accomplish with it.  Bigger house, nicer car, better clothes, more sexual choice.  Some enjoy obedience from everyone, even creating the fear of disobeying a whim.  Others fancy getting important things done ranging from lowering taxes to reducing crime to purifying the air.  Being important is a goal in itself.  Being above the law is intoxicating.  Controlling others allows one to indulge in fantasies.  To get power it sometimes is necessary to take advantage of prejudice and ignorance   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/06/dying-of-whiteness.html

The Epstein Files, such as we know them, reveal that the very rich can indulge in sexual fantasies.  For some that means having sex with younger females or inflicting pain.  One man seems willing to use hurtful diversions to maintain his innocence.

Nelson Mandela, after suffering unfair imprisonment was so courageous and principled that he was eventually given power.  He was admired by enough people that he gained even more power.  He could easily have sought revenge or sought to enjoy all sorts of luxuries that he had been denied until he was almost too old to enjoy them.   He wanted the white South Africans to stay and developed the concept of truth and reconciliation and attracted the World Rugby Championship.  After his death I wrote a blog about Nelson Mandela.http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2013/12/nelson-mandela.html    A decade later I realized it took two men to change South Africa.   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2024/09/we-need-another-nelson-mandela-and-fw.html

 There are still a lot of capable individuals who are honest and caring.  Unfortunately most of them lack sufficient power.  The people below are some examples of leaders who have demonstrated leadership.

Barrack Obama used Abraham Lincoln as a sort of model.  Both men prefer a team of advisors that would challenge them.  Doris Kearns Goodwin noted that Abraham Lincoln deliberately developed a team of rivals.   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2011/11/team-of-rivals-has-lessons-for-today.html

It was pretty nervy for Pete Buttigieg, a small town mayor who was openly gay to run in a presidential leadership contest.  Somehow he proved to be well tempered, remaining calm while using logic to determine root causes and options.  He strikes me as a logical choice to make decisions on a global scale, but is handicapped by prejudice and ignorance.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a comic actor whose politics was expressed in satire, struck a nerve.  His election surprised many, even more so when Russians invaded he did not flee.  He displayed courage and organizing.  His first language is Russian and at some point he may be able to demonstrate forgiveness.   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2022/06/servant-of-people-final-episodes.html

A woman who crossed my path is Chrystia Freeland.  She has a long run view and understands the lure of power.  She played second fiddle to the Prime Minister and made a bold move that forced him out. http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2013/01/plutocrats-by-chrystia-freeland.html

Yuval Noah Harari  has caught my attention for his understanding of human nature, where we came from and where we are headed.  He explains AI.  Does not subscribe to the idea of Jews being God's chosen people.  He is also openly gay and lives in Israel which may be a bonus, or a deterrent. http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2024/10/nexus.html

Mark Carney has recently come to global recognition.  Handling Trump is a real test, but Carney has done a fair balancing act.  He has drawn a few lines and diversified trade and defence

Of course others could have been mentioned, and there is no perfect choice.  Is the final decision maker the only leader?  Part of Trump's downfall will be attributed to his choice of advisors selected for loyalty, not expertise or level headedness.  That should have been a clue before the election.

In pre history leaders were chosen informally by followers recognizing competence first hand.  Expertise was acknowledged and different group members would lead different tasks.  Then we got civilized?  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2014/07/selected.html

Since recorded history we have endured many monarchs or dictators and have developed concepts of democracy, but in general powerful people were able to use money, connections and sophistication to manipulate.  As my regular readers know, I advocate proportional representation, but even that only works with educated voters (but PR generally is more conducive to education).   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2023/10/your-vote-neednt-be-wasted.html

There have been many dominant powers, but they all eventually are diminished.  Fareed Zakaria refers to the British Empire whose power was global didn't collapse from outside attack, but did get spread too thin to manage.

At some future date it seems possible that mankind could galvanize over climate change.  At the moment it seems not enough powerful people are suffering, but it seems likely the suffering will steadily increase. The Iran war is steering more nations and people to seek alternatives to fossil fuel.  We are still headed for climate disaster, but sufficient people do not yet realize that.

To survive the world needs more long term thinking and more respect for science.  And above all we need to co-operate for everyone's best interest.  Hate hurts everyone and has all too often been used as a tool to benefit a small number of people.

Nelson Mandela presented what we need.  A collaborator with a vision.

Thank you Fabrice for getting me on this track. 

Fareed Zakaria's "Age of Revolutions

 

Fareed Zakaria is a familiar face on television, but after reading his books I can appreciate a lot of thought has been given to what you hear on his CNN show.  This project has been in the works for ten years.  In a real sense it is a study leading to how we got to where we are now.

He designates the Netherlands as the foundation of a liberal Revolution that was successful.  Technologically they were advanced with windmills, dikes and ships.  They conquered what became the Dutch East Indies bringing new spices back to England.  The Dutch brought tobacco to Indonesia  and took advantage of the cheap labor  see http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2023/11/cigarette-girl.html  They developed a stock market, gave liberties to more citizens than ever.  They outflanked Spain and Portugal by exploring and settling Cape Town and Indonesia. 

England was the next successful revolution owing a lot to the Dutch William of Orange. who brought a lot of liberal changes.  The Industrial Revolution amalgamated many inventions, but also forced some cultural changes that advantaged women.  Political changes evolved to give more people a vote.  England went on to conquer much of the world and spread liberal ideas.   There was of course backlash.

Many of the democratic ideals were taken to America.  They objected to taxation without representation.  The American Revolution threw out the monarchy and substituted their own Constitution.  The indigenous and black slaves were left out, but the mainly European immigrants felt freer than ever before.  The United States have spread the ideals of democracy which have taken hold in some nations, but not all.

The French Revolution was considered a failure as a liberal event as a dictatorship soon followed.  Today we are feeling a computer revolution that in many ways has liberated us, but also has taken away our privacy and allowed ourselves to be manipulated. 

Hatred is still rearing its ugly face.  An interesting sidelight comes from perceived bigot, Marine Le Pen who uses the extreme Muslim view of homosexuals as a reason to keep Muslims out of her country.

Fareed feels Americans are losing their feeling of community that will hurt democracy.  We huddle in our homes to watch entertainment that we once sought in movie theaters.  Inequality has created segregation.  One solution would be to require some sort of national service.    

The world is more inter dependent than ever and we have a lot of mutual concerns such as climate change. A common referral for Fareed is Lee Kuan Yew who ruled in Singapore with three main ethnic groups, Chinese, Malay and Indian.  An effort was made to mix both housing and schooling so they would learn to get along.

Today China is challenging the United States with Russia and others causing complications. The future is uncertain and will require humans of not only intelligence, but also good will.

An interesting quote from Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa:  "If we want things as they are, things will have to change".

Bullfrog Wisdom

 I saw Admiral  William H. McRaven with Fareed Zakaria.  He has an interesting history giving him some credibility for this book, "The Wisdom of the Bullfrog" on leadership advice.

Subtitled "Leadership made Simple (but not easy)" might explain although there is a lot of common sense you need to make an effort.

 The term "Bullfrog" comes from his background as a leader with the SEALgroup where he started out as a frogman.  He was a key factor in the assassination of Osama bin Laden which is covered in the book.  Things did not go according to plan, but in fact they planned for that.

Tom Landry, former Dallas Cowboys coach is quoted "Setting a goal is not the main thing.  Ir is deciding how you will go about achieving it and staying with that plan."  The Osama bin Laden plan got off to a bad start with one helicopter crashing near the site.  Disasters had been anticipated and worked around.

The Admiral's first point is that honor is a key to leadership.  Trust is necessary and is based on character. 

On one hand you need to be confident.  You were entrusted with a command, so you must command.  On the other hand humbleness is important.  He quotes Pope Francis; "A shepherd should smell like sheep."

He returns to the notion that character is critical.  It is too easy for some to bend the rules to achieve some goal, such as increased profits or a promotion.  An example he offers is Enron, a company run by very smart people, but used unethical means to gain greater profits.  Sooner or later such behavior will have to be accounted for.  

Periodic inspections can make a difference.  It is normal to get complacent and an inspection can reveal small problems that can lead to big problems.

A last point he made was to find someone you can trust.  In his background that person was often thought of as a swim buddy, someone who would support and protect you.  No one person can withstand all the trials the world can throw at you. 

There are a lot of books on improving our lot in life.  They each have a different perspective, but with a lot of overlapping good advice.  We can all use a little reinforcement.  Check out some other books I have read;  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/12/an-antidote-to-chaos-series-of-rules.html

The Revenge of Power

Fareed Zakaria seems a good source for interesting ideas.  Moises Naim visited a second time with a new book that seemed worthy to read.

 In a previous book Moises pointed out that power was being diffused.  The average person had access to information.  In effect many micro powers have developed as many were able to break from isolation with their interests and concerns.  All the factors in "The End of Power" (2013) are still active.  Check:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2014/08/the-end-of-power.html

The focus expressed in this book is that autocrats and would be autocrats  are constantly trying to consolidate their power.  Their strategies are not all new, but technology has given them more tools and they seem to be progressing faster than democracy. 

Silvio Berlusconi represents an earlier parallel to Donald Trump.  In 1994 he had worked himself up from a cruise boat singer to a media conglomerate owner.  He had built up a playboy image and was being investigated for tax evasion and bribery.  He decided to start a political party.  His media staff became candidates and he used his dominating resources to good advantage.  Like Trump, Berlusconi cultivated publicity.  He became leader of one of the largest economies in the world.

Rodrigo Duterte with his death squads met a concern with people fearful of violent drug dealers with a solution that met their concerns.  The simple solution to a serious problem.

In contrast Hugo Chavez was a good listener and understood concerns of the poor.  Author was a cabinet minister under Nicolas Maduro.  When he got power he expropriated much land and started a spiral that ended up in poverty and disaster.

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson point out that nations fail when those who produce wealth lose faith with the state's impartiality and realize that the fruits of their labor are likely to be plundered and transferred to the politically connected.  Check:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2012/11/why-nations-fail.html

The best targets for autocrats are disappointed people, those who find their lifestyle and their dreams declining.

Populists refer to elites as aloof and out of touch.  Expertise is discounted.  This allows those striving for power to offer their own simpler solutions.  This leads to polarization as their fans take sides against the established opposition.  Lately the truth is blatantly overwhelmed with a new "truth."  Surveys showed that anti-expertise voters were key to the Brexit campaign.

Followers identify with Trump by not wearing masks and not getting vaccinated.  For many segments it has reached the stage where marriage and dating decisions are affected by identify.  When celebrity leaders break a norm, their fans do not turn on them, instead they turn on the norms.

Pandemic accelerated some movement and also revealed incompetence.   Inequality has increased and inflation has been another outcome.  Trump lost the 2020 election in part because of his incompetence revealed during the pandemic.

Autocrats support one another.  Currently we are seeing OPEC, Brazil, Hungary, Iran and others lending support to Russia when it attacked Ukraine despite no provocation.  An interesting observation is that autocrats congratulate one another as legitimizing actions that also boost their egos.  Trump had been told by insiders to avoid congratulating Putin, but he could not resist.  The author maintains that Russia did interfere in the 2016 election as did other nations including China, Turkey, Iran and the United States.

Autocrats can evolve to criminal activities.  The author points to Venezuela where kickbacks to drug dealers eventually led to the government taking over sections of the trade.  Other nations have gotten involved in weapons, cigarettes, even illegal immigrants.  Russians have used Interpol to chase after dissidents--check:   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2022/10/freezing-order.html

Can anything be done? 

Electoral systems do make a difference.  Gerrymandering in effect is letting politicians select their voters.  Citizens United legalized actions that would be illegal in other jurisdictions and raised the ceiling on campaign costs.  Lack of trust in experts has allowed bombastic politicians to con us--check http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2022/07/expertise-too-often-shunted-aside.html

Citizen Assemblies bring random voters together to discuss the issues (with neutral advice).  Their recommendations are to be put to a vote in Parliament or Congress.  As it is many votes are deferred for political reasons despite being favored by a majority of citizens. 

Journalism  can play a role.  There had been a trend towards what might be called "bothsiderism" which basically means both sides get to present their case even if one side is dishonest and hateful.  The truth gets shunted aside.  Who decides what is truth?   Naim's earlier book demonstrated that because people have more access to information and to each other they formed little groups with more power than they had as individuals and those dynamics are still happening.  Politics is more than entertainment and more than a horse race.

Education is critical.  One survey pointed out that most Americans could not pass a United States citizenship exam, yet civics courses have been cut in many jurisdictions.  Critical thinking should be part of all courses.

The Big Lie is still believed by too many.  It seems strange that no actual proof has been found for this provocative claim.  It is likely that for many it is really an excuse to attack their opposition.  Some are contemplating forbidding election deniers elected political positions.

The author offers thoughts and suggestions how to fight autocrats, but perhaps a good start would be for more people to read this book.  Admittedly it adds to our discomfort for the future, but it does offer some remedies. 

A view of leadership that takes us back to origins may expand your understanding:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2014/07/selected.html

Better pay attention to China's role in the world

 While today's headlines revolve around the pandemic, other forces are gathering strength to affect our future.  China is not biding its time, but plotting to become the dominant nation on earth. This rant is inspired by Fareed Zakaria, but the ideas are being covered by many sources.  Experts included Evan Osmos and Ian Bremmer add their thoughts to make the point.

At one time the Chinese were self aware of their greatness.  They were the ones who innovated, they were the ones with the well developed scholarship perhaps even complacent about their role in the world.  However about the 16th century the West grew and exploited the Chinese.

Xi Jinping is the current ruler of China and has a firm grip.  What he wants is key.   Xi started his power as charming and interested in America.  He briefly studied farming at Muscatine, Iowa and took a tour of the U.S. including a Los Lakers basketball game with meeting Magic Johnson.  His only daughter studied English and psychology at Harvard under an alias.   

Xi had a tortuous history to achieve his current status.  His father was a key revolutionary, who when Mao Zedung felt he needed to revamp the Communist party, had Xi's father and many others arrested, forced Xi's mother to denounce her husband.  It has been rumored that a sister was hounded to suicide.  The young Xi was sent to manual labor and was rejected several times before allowed to join Communist party.  He worked his way through the ranks and along the way married a prominent singer.

Mao's successor Deng Xiaping took a different approach.  His underlying philosophy was to "Hide your strength... bide your time."  His goal was for China to get rich and powerful, without disturbing the then current global powers.  Each year China gained industrial power and we in the West got used to cheap goods.  Technology was literally stolen (on a personal level this affected me).  While our governments giving into voter demands found the Chinese willing to loan money at low interest rates.  Three of my pet retailer accounts were impacted by China:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/06/working-with-pet-retailers-part-2.html 

Successful (capitalist) entrepreneurs were encouraged.   The top example was Jack Ma, the founder of Alibaba in 1999  He reached global celebrity and was a flamboyant entertainer.   He was the most admired Chinese citizen.  He developed a new payment system and became mammoth online retailer.  In 2014 he offered the  largest IPO at New York stock exchange.

When Xi took power in 2012 he recognized he would need Jack Ma to launch his ambitious program to further boost Chinese power.  The Chinese by this time were innovators at Western levels.  Jack Ma had more celebrity status than Xi and Xi felt uncontrolled capitalism could lead to a collapse of China.  Ma had criticized restrictions publicly.  An IPO intended for the Shanghai stock exchange had been squashed.  Ma disappeared for several months and when made his appearance had become very subdued.

Xi's long range goal appears to be to toughen up the country and claim the dominant global position that China once held.  Censorship is one of his tools and he has determined to get rid of movies that accept same sex relationships and effeminate men.  He has censored video games, social media and has even forbidden anti government karoke music.  A very popular movie has been the "Rambo" like, action movies, "Wolf Warriors" that praise strong fighting heroes.   

An aging population has been identified as a key factor against future growth. In addition to worsening the pension system there were other problems with the one child policy which has been discarded.  Check:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2018/08/in-love-we-trust-is-movie-title-with.html 

He lost respect for America, especially due to their riots high lighted by the January 6th insurrection.   For public consumption Trump  has directed a lot of insults (including racial) and threats against the Chinese.  Trump's poorly thought out rants will only stiffen the resolve of the Chinese people.  They have withstood massive bombing from the Japanese and others.  When criticized for their policies Chinese politicians like to point to the racial history of the United States.

At the same time the Soviet Union collapse is frightening for XI . He attributes it to at least two factors.  One is the opening up to the West.  Another is the development of nationalist sentiments of many of the ethnic groups such as Lithuanians, Estonians and I would add Chechen.  

China itself suffered terrorist attack including ruthless car killings that by 2014 reached Tianamen Square.  The perpetrators were identified as Uigher.     The response was with massive surveillance including facial recognition equipment. Internment camps were set up with torture, abortions, sterilizations.  The Muslim religion and unique language were considered threats.  The Uighers were forced to speak Mandarin.  Xi felt diversity was a threat to the Chinese identity.

In the meantime there was a military buildup.  Still behind the Americans, but closing the gap.  

The Chinese have taken over Tibet and have threatened Westerners who harbor the Dalai Lama who is mostly revered.  In 1999 Britain handed Hong Kong to the Chinese government with the understanding Hong Kong would maintain some independence for decades, but the Xi administration has violated that with violent crackdowns on dissenters, independent politicians and journalists. 

 China grabbed a relatively small piece land from India after fighting.  It has symbolic value against those of us who would to see India as a counterpoint to China.   The border land has been seen to have military implications for both nations.  

To press claims in the oil rich South Seas China has created artificial islands.  This has led to more vigorous claims to their rights.  This has impinged upon Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia.  This is both economic and military. 

 The biggest concern is threatening Taiwan.  Taiwan used to be part of China and the Xi Jinping government is demanding the return.  The Taiwanese government represents the remnant of Chiang Kai Chek's resistance to the Communist takeover.   It was authoritarian, but has since become a democratic nation.  Chinese battleships and jets are in Taiwan's area.  The Pentagon believes that China would win what may the inevitable battle.  This would force a lot of decisions around the globe and time is running out.

Diplomacy, has also been identified as a tool for Chinese domination.  They have long been accused of ignoring human rights issues with their national partners which by itself wins them influence.  In Asia they have been developing what they call a Silk Road connecting their neighbors with economic benefits for all parties.  They have support programs in Africa and South America.  Recently the Chinese have been noted for buying Iranian oil which has been forbidden by American sanctions.  Obviously the Iranians who have been spurned see it differently  A few years back Canada felt victimized when the Chinese demanded no extradition for a Chinese business woman when Americans wanted her for offenses against their sanctions.  The Chinese responded by locking up two Canadian business men for two years on phony charges.

What To Do?

It is argued the "free" world has been sleeping while China has been planning to dominate us for many decades.  In the meantime we all need to co-operate as we need everyone to fight against the pandemic and climate change.  Perhaps this effort which is also in China's interest could be a mitigating factor .  To be successful, transparency is essential for all of us to survive.  If China recognizes that they need to share information it could be a breakthrough.  However they might take a different view, not trusting us.

It is essential that America and its allies strengthen their democracy, pay attention to real problems like pandemics and climate change and inequality   I don't see it  --who has the willpower?  I do see ramping up military capabilities.  According to some reports Chinese students at all levels are outperforming Americans, indicating that most western democracies have not paid enough attention to education.

Recently Lithuania defied China and accepted a Taiwan embassy.  I am sure they will pay a price, but a bigger group would make sure China also pays a price.  China needs us not only as consumers, but also as suppliers. This is not much leverage today, but if we as a whole are wise it could become more of a factor, but time is against us.

We are a month away from the Bejing Winter Olympics.  Some nations have decided not to send a diplomatic contingent which will probably not have much impact.  Many athletes are not going becasuse of the pandemic and some are protesting the treatment of a Chinese tennis star.  The really big thing is that the International Olympic Committee selected for this most prestigious event.  Money speaks louder than words.  Personally I love the Olympic ideal and would like to believe it is good for world peace, but perhaps not if authoritarian nations can use it for propaganda.

We are not unified enough as too many people and entities do not appreciate that we are all connected. 

Ben Rhodes Update on the World Worth Reading

Ben was one of Barrack Obama's closest confidants and got a good view of the world when the Democrats were in power.  As Trump took over, Ben got to see the world more as an outsider.  Fortunately for us who would like to better understand the world he is very articulate.  He is cynical, but analytical.  Recommended by Fareed Zakaria, but also by a few of my acquaintances.

Part of his book is based on conversations with dissidents, primarily in Hungary, Russia and Hong Kong.   Ben feels that the world seems to be tilting towards authoritarianism

While reading about his Hungarian conversations with dissident,  Sandor Lederer coincidenttally Fox news highlighted by Tucker Carlson have been praising Hungary.  Many of Victor Orban's priorities to gain and maintain power are familiar.  Careful to pick compatible judges,  coerce media to co-operate, seek wealthy donors for campaign, rant about immigrants and although there is a a tinge of anti semitism become  friends with Israel and Natanyahu. 

At a memorial event for the Normandy invasion Ben became aware that the Russians actually suffered more from World War II and are not credited enough for their role in defeating the Nazis.  Putin is something like Trump in that he is obsessed with the lost glory of Russia.  Russia is actually weak and are not the danger they were once.

Ben had a few conversations with Alexey Navalny, a dissident who felt Russia should be nationalistic.  His biggest concern was the lack of truth.  As you may know Alexey survived what some assume is a poisoning effort on the orders of Putin and is now in prison.  A quote from Alexander Solzhnitsen " Violence can only be concealed by a lie and the lie can only be maintained by violence."

China is the real game changer.  They not only have developed into an economic juggernaut, but also perhaps the most controlled population in history.  While visiting China, Ben and Obama were warned about their unannounced visit to the "Tibetan separatist" revealing government sensitivity regarding the Dalai Lama.  Talking with dissident  Bao Pu on different occasions Ben learned of the Chinese government ability to know what any one person was thinking.  Hong Kong is being treated much more harshly than promised.  They have developed protesting on a massive scale and support other protest movements such as mentioned for Belarus.

Xi Jinping was more interesting than I had thought.  He married a pop singer.  More astounding was that his parents had offended authorities and suffered.  Xi in fact has not only worked to more controlling, but also projecting China more globally than his predecessors.   

 The Uighurs are an oppressed group in China with over one million under detention.  Xi dismisses all complaints as none of your business.  During the sweep looking for terrorists the Americans scooped up a few Uighurs that ended up at Guantanamo.  During Obama's administration it was assessed that the Uighurs posed no threat to America. The Chinese authorities were interested, but it was decided the best option was to release them in America.  Republicans kicked up such a fuss that that was blocked and made it impossible to close Guantanamo.

I am reminded that during the Olympics, the Chinese government has successfully demanded that Taiwan be known as Chinese Taipei and be denied their national anthem and flag.

Obama felt one way to deal with China was to develop a trade group to compete against China.  That was the Trans Pacific Partnership which eventually he was forced to cut American participation while the remaining nations tried to scrape it together.

A theme of the book is summed up by one Obama quote:  "Power doesn't give up without a fight."  

The last section of the book Ben offers his thoughts on what has happened to America.  Austan Goolsbee , Democratic advisor pointed back to Clinton who broke barriers for financing, while George W. Bush reduced taxes for the wealthy and Obama was forced to do a partial stimulus due to Republican resistance.  Then Trump compounded the debt problem that will take an immense effort to counter the accumulative moves. The Republicans are very quick to criticize, even if it involves reversing their own policy claims.  The base problem is that the Republicans in reality are catering to their financial base of wealthy donors. 

Ben realizes that many parts of the world have legitimate grievances that have been ignored by Americans and that policies have too often been tied to short term economic priorities.  He feels the Trump administration made a bad situation worse.

While reading this book I heard some remarks by Admiral Michael Mullen regarding the fall of the Afghan government.  He attributes it to corruption of the Afghan government as people see Americans supporting that.  This had been predicted years ago. http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2015/07/thieves-of-state.html

Although the book makes for depressing reading, it does hold out some hope and is well worth the effort to understand better forces that are shaping our world. 

Ben's book, "The World as It Is" mainly about his years working with Barrack Obama is reviewed: http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2018/06/the-world-as-it-is.html  

2020 Olympics: The setup and frame

This is not a detailed professional analysis of a massive sports festival but more an obsessed fan's observations that revolve around the festival that occurs every (mostly) two years. This has been difficult time for me to get anything done.  Of course being retired means there are many options and few deadlines, but the Three Ring Circus is very distracting.  To be honest like many people I would ordinarily not go out of my way for 90% of what I do feel compelled to watch during the Olympics.  In some cases there is a novelty, in other cases there is something significant.  Other times it is a time filler, but the whole is  more important than the pieces.

My obsession began in 1960 at age 12 for the Rome Olympics.  I was a news carrier and would take a look at the paper before actually starting delivery.  I ended up cutting out the stories and results.  There wasn't much television coverage and certainly none live.  The 2020 Olympics was very unique.  For starters it didn't happen in 2020.  Despite the delay the pandemic was still a major concern.  While that was very obvious, only slightly less obvious was that climate change can no longer be ignored.

The pandemic caused a lot of adjustments.  Almost all athletes had their training  disrupted--a few got Covid 19 and recovered to participate, but others didn't recover good enough.  Some decided it was too risky and participating would send the wrong message.  In a sense everyone has been affected.  In some team sports they allowed rosters to increase from 18 to 22.  Also reduced the amount of social interaction between athletes and support staff.  The stands were to be empty with no paying customers.  The other athletes and staff coming to cheer on their team mates were forbidden to sing or cheer and of course were expected to wear a mask.  Although protocols seemed to have been adhered to, the Olympics cannot avoid being a spreader event.  In fact Japan was in the midst of another pandemic wave.

When showing the Canadian winners of women's synchronized diving because the presenter is not permitted to place the medals around the neck of the winners, the two women in turn put them over each other with this procedure becoming normal wherever possible.  

The heat often reached 30 degrees Centigrade.  Heat management is a key to improving one's performance when it most counts--in the final.  Most noticeable in track especially in the longer distances.  It is always position that qualifies for the next step, but time also may qualify.  The wisest movement is not extend yourself more than necessary, but is subject to risk that someone else will extend themselves enough to qualify at your expense.  This strategy probably effected the final outcomes more than usual.

Confused about Sapporo being the site for the marathon and long distance walking events as it is well north of Tokyo on another island.  It was a complicated issue at first seemingly dictated by health concerns for athletes.  Television was a major factor as organizers realized previous long distance running and walking events in 30 + degree weather resulted in massive withdrawals during the event and great suffering of those who survived.  Late July and early August are normally the hottest time of the year, but avoided overlapping with major sporting events in Europe and America.  Again television dictates important details.

Because of the heat many outdoor events had to be rescheduled.  At one point there was talk of changing sailing events because of a possible cyclone which hit China.

For most of us the only access was through television.  Canadians are fortunate in that the CBC traditionally goes all out.  NBC was a lot more restrained in hours, but most Canadians had access to whatever might be of interest there.   NBC was more worried about upsetting their regular advertisers. This year CBC really expanded, using other networks like TSN to co-ordinate coverage plus offering free streaming services for many events.  Not quite 24 hours, but sort of.  As Tokyo is 13 hours ahead the Eastern Time Zone found 10 am to about 7 am. with no live events, but plenty of tapes, interviews, analysis. The challenge of coverage and accessibility was more difficult because of more events.

Actually staying at home with television has advantages over actually attending.  We can flip from event to event almost as our fancy dictates.  The camera has become more innovative than ever with more tantalizing views than ever with lots of replays.   

I was struck by underwater and slow motion views that apparently are denied to diving judges.  Water polo sometimes included underwater shots of what goes on which often is more violent that what we see on the surface.  Check out  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2016/04/in-praise-of-water-polo.html  Perhaps I am just jealous, but at home you can appreciate the athleticism and artistry better, but of course the emotions of the crowd are irreplaceable.

This is the most gender equality Olympics yet  There were mixed gender events with a track relay, and with shooting and tennis among others.  Male and female flag bearers for most nations.  Altogether 49% of the athletes were women.  Equestrian is the only event where the sexes compete as equals with women often winning as it takes  more than brute strength to control a horse that might weigh half a ton.

For the first time openly transgender women were included, but it's complicated.  Some of the inclusions were a New Zealand weightlifter, a Brazilian volleyball player, a  member of Canadian gold medal soccer team.  In these cases consideration is given to hormone treatment focusing on testosterone levels allowing that some is natural in women.  Another factor is time from transition as in many cases there is a temporary muscle retention.  There is also a concern over cis females (those normally considered female) with their testosterone levels.  Two teenagers from Namibia had such high testosterone levels they were not allowed to run the 400 her best event, but one of them did win silver in 200 meters.  The International Olympic Committee  is attempting to balance inclusiveness and fairness.  It seems likely there will be further classifications in the future.

Sexism is prominent.  Women's Beach Volleyball requires skimpy bikini like outfits.  Prior to the Olympics the Norwegian handball team was fined for rejecting the skimpy outfits that had been standard.  An American celebrity offered to pay the fine, but fortunately the handball association retracted the fine.   The German gymnastics team protested with full length leotards.  Ironically other women, especially in the past had been required to cover more of their bodies.  I assume that skimpy outfits used in other women's sports are for their comfort.  Although men will always enjoy bare skin and form fitting outfits we are starting to better appreciate the skills and efforts required.

Back in 2011 the World Anti-Doping Agency banned Russia from international sporting activities including the Olympics.   As a compromise the IOC allowed Russian athletes to participate as the Russian Olympic Committee with a few restrictions.  They cannot use the Russia name, or use their flag or have their national anthem played.  It was suggested that should one of them win a gold medal  they could play the Tchaikowski Piano Concerto Number One (which is much more impressive).  The Russians missed a few athletes, but maintained some of their national prestige with a respectable haul of medals.

Surprised to learn that Hong Kong participates (since 1952) including 2021.  Puerto Rico has long had its own team.   Refugee Olympic team was first allowed in 2016 and has continued with limited success in medal events, but are making a statement.  

Taiwan presents a special problem for the IOC because China objects strongly to any implication that Taiwan is an independent country.  They were banned for several years, but in 1981 agreed to a compromise that required them to use the name Chinese Taipei and forgo use of the national anthem and flag for medal presentations.  A few foreign media have decided to use "Taiwan" in their coverage of the games, but this rouses stern rebukes from Beijing authorities.

Tokyo not only wanted to represent Japanese culture, but wanted to incorporate more environmentally friendly elements.  The torch lit in Greece was designed with a cherry blossom motif and made partly from recycled aluminum.  The cauldron that houses the Olympic flame was designed by Canadian architect, Oki Sato.  It was made to represent five separate flames coming from a flower.  For the first time it was fueled by hydrogen which does not emit carbon dioxide.

For the medals, electronic devices such as mobile phones were collected from Japanese citizens and metals drawn from there including gold, silver and red brass (95% copper and 5% zinc).  Junichi Kawanishi designed the medals.  Each of the medal winners was also given a small bouquet made from flowers that had been grown in the areas affected by the tsunami and nuclear disaster symbolizing Japan rising again.

Perhaps music has been considered masculine for too long, but it adds enjoyment to some of the women's events such as gymnastics and synchronized swimming. 

The Olympics has inspired a lot of memorable music.  I remember the Celine Dion choice for the Atlanta Games in 1996 was criticized, but the organizers defended saying they wanted the best.  I think the best and the most appropriate was Whitney Houston singing "One Moment in Time."  Unless I missed it on a bathroom break there were no catchy original songs.  I had read that the composer had been charged with a sexual crime and his music taken out of the program.  

Personally I decided to do musical posts on Facebook to commemorate gold medal winners from countries that don't always get a lot of attention.  Ones I found time and space for were the Netherlands, Philippines, Jamaica, Morocco, Ethiopia, Latvia, Italy, Puerto Rico and Fiji.

The opening ceremony was more subdued than in the past.  The athletes paraded in and speeches were made.  Naomi Osaka lit the flame.  A moment of silence was observed for the first time during the Opening Ceremonies for the murder of 11 Israeli team members (plus one German police officer) during the 1972 Munich Olympics.  At the time this caused the first disruption of 34 hours, overcoming some opposition to continuing.  Palestinians used the Olympic platform to make a violent political statement that backfired on them.  But it made security a much higher priority for future Olympics.

The marathon did attract a lot of spectators behind guard rails, but they all have masks on.  With the walking events it provided opportunities for local and visitors to watch something without buying tickets.  The Japanese were encouraged to watch on television.

For the closing athletes paraded in and speeches were made with the Olympic flag being handed over by the female Tokyo mayor to the female Paris mayor.  There was some entertainment by dancers and singers (I think lip synched).  The French part of the closing was very impressive, a big part of it staged in Paris, itself with jets leaving colored streams for their flag around the Eiffel Tower.  Skateboarding around the skyline and with break dancing (to be added 2024).  To me the ceremony seemed more subdued from the point of view of athlete's participation which has traditionally been rollicking.

Tokyo will be paying off the debt for decades.  They had hoped to present themselves as a modern city with many attractions for visitors.   One aspect that is unique is that the Japanese have a fondness for forest or tree bathing and have integrated elements into Tokyo itself.

Fareed Zakaria commented on the logistical masterpiece of organizing.  Many athletes and officials had no direct flights, supplies from different parts of the world (eg. sand from Vietnam), horses.  It demonstrates that international co-operation can be impressive.  Fareed wishes that dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic was as good.

For my post on Brazilian Olympics/Paralympics  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2016/09/olympic-impressions-for-2016.html

There is too much for one post so if you are interested in my humble opinions there will be a second post. within a day or so.  Followup here:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2021/08/2021-olympics-part-two-people-who-made.html

LANGUISHING: A NEW WORD AND A NEW REALITY

Actually, "languishing" is not a new word, it has been kicking around for a long time and has recently gained some momentum.  But it does have a new and personal meaning for all of us.  Most of us are not actually depressed (although more of us probably are), but we feel helpless and unfocused.  We have been teased with restrictions being lifted and then brought back.  The weather has been easing, but inconsistent.  For me a Steve Paikin episode gave the notion of how one feels, some articulation.

Update:  Languishing is when a person loses hope and loses much of their motivation.

Time management has been altered for everyone.  I had once preached that you can not fully enjoy two activities at the same time, but these days multi-tasking is the normal, but truly no task is quite as satisfying as we hoped.  Blogging is one coping mechanism for me, but will confess there are many posts in draft and I dilly dally between them without the focus that could make any of them more satisfying.  An earlier blog when I was focused on selling, but everyday living as well:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2011/05/time-management-for-sales-other-people.html

Personally (and for some this is even more excruciating) two funerals have affected me.  A close friend of the family, Helen Rigby died from cancer during one of the semi lockdowns.  A memorial service was held, semi outdoors, masks, temperatures checked, some social distancing.  Under normal circumstances a lot more people would have showed to pay their respects and remember the good times with her.  Through the newspaper obituary we learned of the death of an uncle, Raymond Oleskiw who once had a significant role in the family.  Although he was elderly and had other health issues, the Covid 19 pandemic was the deciding factor.  No mention of a funeral and apparently the opportunity to renew family ties has been missed.

Resentment which we all seem powerless to really express is now part of our psyches.  Guessing most of my readers resent those "idiots" who are not strictly abiding by restrictions and holding the rest of us hostage.  On the other hand they resent us because we are putting a damper on their enjoyment of life.  Amongst my crowd there is resentment between those who had early access to vaccinations and those who didn't, many of whom were exposed to greater risk.

Donald Trump and his supporters are especially resented.  We can see his selfish decision to sideline an intelligent response to the pandemic.  Too many blindly follow his words and example, not realizing he has already screwed them and is now compounding the problem.  Somewhere in the future there may be a reaction against science deniers that are really protecting their greedy interests.  Climate change, gun control, mental health, inequality, etc.may eventually be viewed more reasonably and dealt with more effectively.

Another resentment is that the rich are doing better than ever.  More of us are forced to buy online as we are unable to get what we need (and want) through our regular suppliers.  The big grocery stores are able to adjust, while too many of their smaller competitors are either closed or severely restricted.  This trend will likely carry on and we will all have a different purchasing life.

To my way of thinking there have been events that changed society profoundly, but few as severely as the current pandemic.  My parents were brought up during the Great Depression and went through some deprivations and a great release to help start the baby boom.  Their parents (my grandparents) were the ones who felt the shock of a standard of living being suddenly lowered.  World Wars created for many a different adjustment, due to fear.  Young people, especially those active or close to active fighting, felt life and plans could be ended abruptly so you might as well enjoy life to the fullest for the moment.

Other blogs that made me think of our precarious existence: 

When the Covid 19 shutdowns I started exploring my city within walking distance seemed like a good idea.  This link has several other links for these walks which resulted in lots of photos that you might find interesting and a few observations:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2020/04/the-shutdown-continues.html

A CBC radio clip got my attention about luck.  A book written by Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, a statistician followed.  He was debunking a lot of luck notions while at the same time urging us to pay more attention to statistical odds.  More recently there has been a fuss about blood clots caused by some vaccines that has caused some policy changes and more critically public fear.  Looking at the odds there is more danger of getting Covid 19.  It is worth some consideration:   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2021/03/knock-on-wood.html

 Watching Michelle Gelfand, a guest on Fareed Zakaria the discussion started on loose and tight societies and how they affected coping with the Covid 19 pandemic.  There has been a definite link and the same mechanism affects much more:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2021/04/rule-makers-rule-breakers.html

What will we bequeath to those that follow?  Life is not certain and thus we might appreciate it more.  People can be very greedy and thoughtless.  Other people can be very caring.  The rich can survive better than the rest of us, but even they can be hurt.  Above all I hope future generations will realize that we are all CONNECTED.

 If you found this blog more disjointed than usual, you could be right.  Blogging still is something I enjoy and has become part of my coping strategy.  An explanation of my joy:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2020/09/what-keeps-me-blogging-and-what-i-have.html

An explanation of how I chose my title:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2013/07/the-real-john-davidson.html

Rule Makers, Rule Breakers

Social norms are so normal we don't notice them very often.  But they control us, or at least influence us or some might say they are there to be challenged or ignored.  Social scientists are dissecting the world and it seems continually identifying new ways to divide us into useful bits that others can use to better understand (and manipulate) our behavior.  Michelle Gelfand has identified a continuum that is both a result and cause of many other factors namely, looseness and tightness and has a few ideas how to balance them.  She also includes that social norms are what binds groups together.

When the author talks of tightness she is referring to social norms that are restrictive, regimented and conformative.  When she refers to looseness it is the disregard for strict rules and more relaxed.  The tightness-looseness scale is a continuum with the extremes at either ends and what passes for normal in between.  

Surveyed 33 countries to determine how they fit on a continuum between tightness and looseness.  The tightest nations include Pakistan, Singapore, Norway, India and Malaysia.  At the other end the loosest nations include Ukraine, Israel, New Zealand, Brazil, Netherlands and the United States.  Corporations and individuals have many variables.

Why are some nations tighter than others?  Generally an outside threat unites the population and they accept restrictions for the common good.  Outside threats include invaders, drought, turbulent weather, pandemics, scarcities, etc.  Orderliness is highly valued.  With the lessening of outside threats people have less need for order and restrictions.  The author relates her scale to companies and individuals allowing that each group has variations.  As individuals we are tight about different things, but most of us feel a need for looseness with other activities.

The benefits of tightness are a regimented power to get something done.  The benefit of looseness is innovation (I would add more fun, at least in the short view).  The truth is taken to an extreme either factor can hurt society extremely.  Finding the balance, as the author puts it, the Goldilocks principle is an ongoing battle.  You might remember Goldilocks found one porridge bowl too hot, another too cold and another just right. 

She points out that early American settlers from Scotland and Ireland were very concerned about honor, but generous until they felt insulted.  That attitude helped set the tone for United States and also Canada.  Diversity opened up looseness, until some felt conflict.  Gelfand suggests there might be some genetic flows as people tend to associate (and mate) with similar people.

An experiment highlighted in this book that demonstrated that people tended to conform to the majority, reminded me of an embarrassment that haunts me.  At university I majored in sociology and we were encouraged to do experiments to understand better.   Simply a vertical line was shown on the left side and the participant was to determine which of three lines matched it.  Simple enough, except that all but one of the participants had been instructed to give false declarations to see if the test subject would bend to the majority judgment.  In many cases they did.  My group decided to see if women were more compliant then men which in general they were (this was before 1970).  Why I feel guilty is that I recruited the sister of a good friend.  She was intelligent and well educated, but had been raised in a Central American culture that was even more male dominated than our own.  She caved almost right away despite the others being blatantly wrong.  She was a decent person who was willing to do me a favor and I am sure she felt humiliated.

Quote from the author "From the time we wake up to the moment we go to bed, we experience the ebb and flow of tight and loose mind-sets... Each of us has a default setting."  Another quote, this time from Dov Frohman of Intel Israel, "If you aren't aware that the people in the organization disagree with you, then you are in trouble."  Dissent indicates a looseness that can benefit the corporation.

The tightness-looseness continuum relates closely to other traits in what she labels a curvilinear relationship such as diversity, mental health, happiness, even life expectancy.  As we are all tied to global concerns it will be necessary for loose and tight societies to co-operate.  The author offers examples of how this has worked and might work in the future.

The book was published in 2018, but I learned of it through a recent television interview between Fareed Zakaria and Michelle Gelfand that focused on how different cultures were reacting to the Covid 19 pandemic.  Tight cultures established control much quicker, but were not as able to adapt to changing variants while the loose cultures were more adaptive.  It was concluded that a mixture would be better.

From the Acknowledgements we learn a conversation with her father helped expand her interests.  Studied to be a doctor, but became interested in cultural matters.  Has pulled together a variety of academic disciplines.  In the end she marvels that with her husband and two daughters she personally has achieved the Goldilocks Principle.

The N.R.I. dilemma

For those not familiar with N.R.I. it refers to a  Non Resident Indian, a fairly common role in Bollywood and Indian movies.  In fact they are popular, partly because the film financers want to reach foreign audiences, but also because they represent reality.

There is such a thing as brain drain where much of the world benefits at the expense of India.  I have personally been enriched by the brain drain from India (and Pakistan) quite literally, but also figuratively --more on that at the bottom.

A Telegu film "Pressure Cooker" (2020) reminded me of changing attitudes on  the N.R.I.  The movie was just ok, but the theme and plot opened my mind.  In this film the parents of the hero thought the ultimate goal for their son was for him to settle in the U.S.  They had relatives and neighbors who had seen their sons succeed in America.  The hero after graduating from university tried several times to get a VISA unsuccessfully, but felt pressured to start his career in America.  Desperate he tried some illegal methods, but got caught.  He became attracted to a woman whose mother wanted her to marry an N.R.I. and go to the States, but she had always resisted.

As the plot develops our hero develops a relationship with an older neighbor who has two sons that have settled in the U.S. and feels great pride in them.  Later we see the two brothers with their wives visit their father and without meaning offense demonstrated a clash of parental cultures.  After they returned to their American homes,  the father became very ill and it became an awkward situation as the two sons felt work obligations and their wives feeling the effort was not worth it.  The father died and his wife grieved contacting her sons for support, but they were rationalizing they couldn't get there in time, but would try later on.  In Hindu culture the oldest son is obligated to light the fire for his father's cremation.  Instead the hero lit the flames.

Not able to get a job with any large technology companies in India he ended up with a startup and developed some significant technological advance with medical applications.  This gave him an easy shot at going to the States with minimal fuss.  His girl friend to whom he had recently professed his love would not go as she felt obligated to stay for her parents.  The hero was torn, but felt obligated to his father and was set to go.  At the last minute (of course) the widow of the dead neighbor brought a letter from her husband written on his death bed.  Our hero read the letter to his family in which the neighbor confessed he had changed his mind about sending his sons to the States and felt our hero should stay because  of his parents.  A happy ending and he reconciles with his girl friend.

A better movie in many ways was "Swades" (2004)  They had a much bigger star, my favorite Shah Rukh Khan who already was in America.  He was a well respected and successful space engineer, but felt he missed his child hood nanny.  He decided to go back to India with the idea of bringing her back to America.  Naturally there were lots of difficulties including a romance.  While there the hero was constantly being asked to help local people how to get their VISA and he offered encouragement.  As in the other film the romance became very significant in his thinking.  She admitted she loved him, but would not go to the States.  As a teacher she felt her purpose in life was to raise the education of her neighborhood youth and persisted through many obstacles which our hero helped a little.  A crunch came when the village suffered a series of blackouts.  Our hero was able to overcome this problem with his engineering skill.

He was in demand in the States and had felt he could serve India from that spot.  He had contributed to a satellite that would help water resources in India.  Now he could appreciate that his skills would be critical in India.  In the end he opted to stay in India with his nanny and his love.

Although considered an artistic success it was not a big financial hit.  More on Shah Rukh Khan:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2016/06/shah-rukh-khan-worlds-most-famous-actor.html

Times are changing.  Asians were attracted to Europe and North America for education and many of them used to find jobs in the host country.  That is changing.  Not only are Asians finding quality education alternatives in Asia, but also the rest of the world is starting to enroll in Asian education institutions.  Another key trend is that Asian graduates are more inclined to go back home where they can make a difference.  As I was writing this post I was watching Fareed Zakaria who was interviewing the author Parag Khanna of "The Future is Asia" who added that partly because of Donald Trump -some Asians are switching from America to Australia and Canada.  Learn more about Parag's book:    http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/07/the-future-is-asia.html

Indians are contributing all around the globe and wherever they are will provide lots of stories for films.

For a few years of my work life I worked as a newspaper district circulation manager which meant I was required to sell.  In practice this meant recruiting carriers to knock on doors and persuade home owners to subscribe to a newspaper.  It wasn't initially a strong point for me, but eventually I caught on with the help of another district manager.  What made me look good and win a trip to Florida were a few young boys from the Indian subcontinent--especially brothers Farhan and Aamir, Fernando and David.  On a sadder note as part of my job I ran a program for Carrier of The Week.  One boy I brought for a photo when asked what he wanted to do when he grew up answered, "I want to go back to India."  A few years later I learned from his parents that he died in the Air India bombing.  More on my circulation experiences:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2012/08/my-career-in-circulation-part-3-winding.html

Prius or Pickup?

Political power comes from accurate analysis of voters.  In this age of American partisan voting the contest is very competitive and the consequences can be frightening.  Another book brought to my attention by Fareed Zakaria

The authors contend that the answers to four apparently non political questions can tell a lot about a voter and why there is such a divide in America.  The outcomes of the four questions can be applied to many situations.



Here are the four questions that respondents are requested to indicate a preference: with respect for their children
                    1).  independence vs respect for elders.
                    2).  obedience vs. self-reliance
                    3).  curiosity vs. good manners
                    4).  being considerate vs. being well behaved.

The answers would be classified by worldview as fixed, fluid or mixed.  The fixed tended to prefer authoritarian parenting and set in life style while fluid were more nurturing and open minded.  Mixed were the ones who did not answer all questions consistently and thus might bend a little either way.

You might guess that the fixed worldview tends to vote Republican and that fluid tends to vote Democrat and generally that is true.   Race turns out to be an offsetting factor.  Many blacks, Muslims and Hispanics are naturally fixed in their world view, but the Republican leaders cannot avoid offending many minorities, because their base wants them to stand up to the minorities including the LGBT community.  Race can even modify some fixed views as when Obama supported same sex marriage and many blacks followed the change in attitude.

In addition to the direct political links there are endless non political links that reinforce the political choices.  Most Fixed stick with traditional food, entertainment, fashion, education, etc.  Fluid are more open, even seeking new things. This leads to segregation based on worldview making it more difficult to change attitudes.  Check a related blog on attitudes to novelty:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2012/08/new-understanding-our-need-for-novelty.html

Partisanship has intensified significantly since 1990.  There is hatred not just for the opposing party, but to those people who claim loyalty to the opposing party.  Amazingly facts do not matter so much as each side is capable to spinning information to defend their loyalties.

Mixed worldviews are closer to fixed than they are to fluid, especially with regard to racism and immigration.  Fear shifts everyone.  Trump's campaign emphasized things to be afraid of.

Europe is showing similar trends, although there are significant differences.  They examine the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Denmark that are all experiencing growth of right wing parties. There is greater inequality in America than in Europe.  It appears that wealthy American interests have been well served at the expense of the less well off.  Offsetting this to some extent is that large corporations do realize their interests are best served by being fair to minorities.

The authors close with a quote from Abraham Lincoln.  "a house divided against itself cannot stand."  Their concern was that the conflicting worldviews need to work together on a global scale.

FEAR :ANOTHER ANTI TRUMP BOOK

The title comes from a quote by Donald J Trump to Bob Woodward and Robert Costa in March of 2016, "Real power is--I don't even want to use the word--fear."  He has said so many things, but perhaps this is the core of his philosophy.  First learned of this title from Fareed Zakaria.

Bob Woodward, of Watergate fame has found a style that helps to uncover interesting information.  He conducts interviews as for background meaning he does not attribute quotes. His sources seem quite willing to provide some juicy details.  He had also done a lot of research of media information.  The book is full of details of interactions of the supporting cast who mostly tried to prevent Trump from doing a lot of what he wanted to.

You want to read this book quickly, because although it points in the direction Trump is headed it also is outdated as the live narrative is changing every day.  It carries up to about March 2018.  Trump continues to make inflammatory tweets and statements and Bob Mueller seems to quietly get more incriminating information.  "Fear" does give a fuller understanding of the background behind the headlines.

Going back to 2010 Trump decided to explore how he might run for president.  He had generally been pro choice, but agreed to publicly become pro life.  He had been donating slightly more to Democrats than Republicans, but explained that was because Democrats controlled much of urban projects and he needed to grease the wheels.  Steve Bannon said he needed to donate to Republican causes, but doubted he would because his donations were more related to what he wanted to buy, sell and develop to make money.

Some bits of advice he learned.  Steve Bannon felt  Hilary talked too much like a politician which hurt her credibility even when telling the truth.  Kellyanne Conway advised to not bother with national polls, but to focus on the Electoral College where he could leverage his resources better.

As one reads of many private conversations touching on incidents we have read and heard about a couple of conclusions leap out.  Trump  has many preconceptions and shows little interest in understanding the complexities of many issues.  He always wants to project strength and prefers to intimidate those he considers opponents.  He never wants to admit he has been wrong about anything.  Ultimately everything revolves around him.  Lots of indications of mental instability.  Some of the interesting conversations are with Lindsay Graham, Steve Bannon, Reince Preibus and John Dowd.  Woodward talked to or about a lot of others.

Trump had had experience with bankrupticies and was not frightened by them.  He felt his negotiating skills included risking bankruptcy even on a federal basis.

In general Trump distrusted international commitments and organizations.  He genuinely felt America had been poorly treated by the rest of the world. 

Gary Cohn comes out as a reasonable man trying to restrain and educate Trump.  One issue was a sequence planned to deal with China.  They were to seek a coalition of allies to gang up on China regarding intellectual property theft. But before that got organized Trump insisted on imposing tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries as well as break up trade agreements.  Instead of accumulating allies for the original goal he alienated the prospect of a united front.  In the meantime Trump met the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping and felt he was a friend.  Cohn tried to explain that trade deficits were not bad, but failed and eventually resigned partially due to his failure.

Kim Jong Un, often considered a madman is not.  His father apparently executed scientists for their failures, but Kim has realized they need to learn from mistakes, thus advancing his nuclear and missile plans.  We are all aware of a twitter escalation of war threats, but behind the scenes Trump was planning a tweet to order military dependents in South Korea to leave which would have been a signal to North Korea of impending military action.  Fortunately he was deterred from the tweet.

Trump had made a campaign promise to repeal the "worst deal ever made" with Iran.  Many argued with him, but he was adamant.  Perhaps he was influenced by Israel supporters who feared Iran or maybe he was supporting Arab interests.  Personally I believe Saudi Arabia is the bigger trouble maker when compared to Iran, but the phobia against Iran is crippling.  As one observer pointed out Trump is friendlier towards North Korea.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2020/01/who-deserves-blame.html

The Mueller investigation according to sources is very distracting to Trump.  It is often difficult to get his attention, but more so when public announcements are made.  Woodward obviously talked with legal staff and recounts many conversations between Trump and John Dowd.  With no legal training I would have to conclude there is no proof that Trump directly colluded with the Russians.  The book closes with a fancied quote from John Dowd, "you're a fucking liar," not actually said to Trump's face.

"That's what she said" a book worth reading.

First learned about Joanne and her new book from her appearance with Fareed Zakaria.

The title comes from remarks overheard at a business meeting.  A male was given credit for something that had first been brought up by a female.  This all too common scenario is one of the events that inspired Joanne to write the book.

Joanne very early on explains this book is not about man shaming.  She recognizes gender equality will never be truly reached without the involvement of men. Fortunately many men are helping.  Women are also a part of the problem as they have too many unconscious notions of women's role.

Many women think the way to succeed in a man's world is to adopt male interests such as sports, dirty jokes, etc.  Sometimes it works, but other times they are thought of as unfeminine.  Asserting authority, even when they have it has a higher price than suffered by males.

Boys are raised to be competitive while girls are taught to be co-operative and deferential.

One critical, but contested fact is that diversity boosts productivity.  Our country has been run by white men and even now it is hard to break the mould.  Companies in different fields have found their profits increased as women more involved in decisions.

An early example was Tupperware.  It was invented by Earl Tupper, but he didn't really appreciate that his principle audience found it difficult to understand.  Brownie Wise had her efforts to achieve management level after being the top sales person were rejected.  She convinced Tupper to go the house party route and it turned the product around.

Diversity training has become more common, but Joanne found that it is relatively ineffective and often counter-productive.  Unconscious bias awareness seems to be more effective.  Google was an early pioneer as they were concerned that they were not hiring or retaining women to levels they thought would be beneficial.  Everyone is at least a bit sexist and a bit racist among other inapropriate thoughts.  Another blog that discusses the critical role of the subconscious is:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2015/08/what-choice-do-you-have-some-thoughts.html

Deutch Bank became concerned that they were losing too many women to their competition.  They learned that the women were reluctant to ask for promotions and raises and assumed they were in a dead end situation.  After this was discovered more women were offered promotions.

Respect is a key concept.  Women are more interrupted than men, even at the Supreme Court level.  One example is that male doctors receive more respect than females and conversely male nurses are not as respected.  Transgender studies have demonstrated that transgender males gain more respect than they received as females.  Transgender females lose respect after their transition.  

Speaking up is key.  Some companies encourage their staff (male and female) to point out bias even to the boss.

In the 2016 American presidential election Donald Trump expressed his anger loudly and gained respect, but Hilary Clinton was criticized for "shrillness."  Although there were a myriad of factors undoubtedly for many voters a female candidate didn't command enough respect.  During his administration Obama tried in many ways to close the gender gap, but Trump has rolled back many of the efforts.

Blind auditions for musicians gave women more orchestra and band positions  It has been extended to fields where talent could be evaluated without identifying a person.

Maternity and paternity policies are common in much of the world, except very limited in the United States.  Some companies are realizing to retain women long term they have to develop policies that acknowledge women will be concerned about child rearing.  One suggestion was to give them projects that would keep them in the loop.  Eventually their children grow up and they are free to  apply their talents.

Mentoring has always been an effective way to nurture and develop new employees, but early efforts to bring senior males with junior females had lots of problems.  One solution at the social level has been to include spouses and even children. 

She concludes her book by admitting that women are still living in a man's world, but that each day more men reach across the gender divide.  There were thousands of men in the Women's March, the day after the 2017 inauguration.  Men and women evolved to survive in a dangerous world, but as conditions change we need to develop new understandings and new habits to cope with new dangers and new opportunities.  Lots of suggestions are provided.

A bit more about Joanne:  http://joannelipman.com

The World As It Is

What prompted this blog was a tv appearance of author Ben Rhodes with Fareed Zakaria.  It was just after the G7 conference when Trump accused Justin Trudeau of dishonesty and cut off an agreement for the conference.  Larry Kudlow sided with Trump saying Trudeau had stabbed Trump in the back.  Ben Rhodes pointed out that Obama had warned Trudeau he would have to stand up to Trump.  Pretty obvious  to most Canadians that Trump was way out of line.

Fareed had commented that the book reads like a novel and Ben admitted that he had a degree in fiction writing.  When my daughter decided to go to school in Halifax I thought I better find out about a part of Canada I had never been to.  I picked "Halifax: Warden of the North" by Thomas Raddall from the library and found it much more fascinating than anticipated.  Soon after I discovered the author had written many novels and I read (and bought) as many as I could find.  Later on I learned of a new book about neighboring Dartmouth and bought it, but a book seller admitted that historians are not usually as good as fictional writers even in narrating history.  Too often true.  But Ben Rhodes actually lived what he writes about and brings a personal understanding.

The title comes from the last sentence of the book,  "I was a man, no longer young, who--in the zigzag of history--still believed in the truth within the stories of people around the world, a truth that compels me to see the world as it is, and to believe in the world as it ought to be."  The world of politics is frustrating--so many reasons why the right things can't be done, except maybe once in a while in a small way.

Ben met and befriended Barrack Obama in 2007 and although only in his late 20's, developed a trust relation that led to writing speeches, consulting on important decisions and assuming some responsibilities on an international scale.

It wasn't that long ago so most readers will have a memory of many of the events, but get an insider's view. The demands of a close relationship with the most powerful man in the world can be rough on family even though his wife was also involved with government administration.  In the book you will get a feel for the grinding demands, but this blog will only highlight a few events.

When Nelson Mandela died the two men headed to South Africa with Ben writing and shaping Obama's speech.  It was a unique experience with the first black American president mourning one of the greatest (black) leaders of the world.  What was mainly conveyed back to American news sources was a selfie with Obama and the Danish prime minster.

Benghazi took up a disproportionate amount of energy in American politics.  Ben wrote a memo to Susan Rice as she was being prepped to speak in national tv regarding the deaths at Benghazi, including points given by the CIA.  Ben found his memo was taken out of context and distorted and he felt bewildered at how aggressive the Republican party attacked him.  There was no smoking gun, but the issue was blown up because the Republicans couldn't find anything better to stir up the voters.

The Iran negotiations stretched over many years and involved many national perspectives.  But it hit some people the wrong way.  Particularly Netanyahu who distrusted Iran and hoped to somehow convince the United States to attack it.  Again hypocrisy reared its head and Republicans attacked the deal without having anything better to offer.

Towards the end of  Obama's second term it was decided that it was time to improve relations with Cuba.  Ben was given the opportunity to negotiate with Raul Castro's son and later with Vatican diplomats.  This required travel to Canada, the Caribbean and the Vatican.  Again there was a lot of resistance, but in the end there was improvement that not only stood to boost relations between the two principles, but raised the American profile over all Latin America.  Some of my thoughts at the time-- http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2014/12/obama-and-cuba.html

Another project that Ben got involved in was with Laos.  During the Vietnamese War  Laos found itself on a route of American bombers who dropped more bombs than were done in WW II over Germany and Japan.  Literally millions were left and were not detonated, but others have been killing children.  Ben campaigned to bring more attention and budget to the problem.

Anthony Bourdain, the traveling gourmet was admired by Ben who appreciated the efforts to spread peace and goodwill by encouraging people to sit down and eat together.  He arranged for Obama to join Bourdain for a television show set in Hanoi.  I remember watching that episode which among other things demonstrated that Obama was not above the common man.

The Russians started to assert themselves during Obama's second term.  They had tried to disrupt Ukrainian efforts to align itself with western Europe.  Americans got involved and had some success in forcing a Russian leaning leader to flee.  Putin pushed back as he felt the Americans should not interfere with what he considered his territory.   He claimed and then invaded Crimea and threatened eastern Ukraine.  During this time a Malaysian Airline plane was shot down killing all passengers.  Ben was concerned that the Russians refused to acknowledge their involvement and blatantly lied about it.

Ben also gives his perspective on Russian involvement with the American election and told of Obama's attempts to deal with it.  The biggest obstacle was Mitch McConnell who threatened to call exposure of the Russian efforts as a partisan effort of the Democrats.  This is also the man who prevented Obama from having his Supreme Court judge choice even given a hearing.

Near the end of Obama's term he got into a discussion with Ben about one of my favorite books, "Sapiens" by Yuval Noah Harari which was highly praised.  Here is my take on what I thought was the best book I read in 2015:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2015/12/sapiens-brief-history-of-humankind.html

At this time it is upsetting to realize that the American voters have put in place a man who is dedicated to undoing Obama's legacy.  Many are regretting their decisions, but too many are complicit in what is happening.  Ben reports that Obama was very conscious of racist elements in opposition, but chose not to inflame the issues.  Donald Trump made public demands for Obama to prove he was born in America and has been focused on upending all the good things that were attributed to Obama.  As with Harry Truman it may be awhile before Americans wake up to how one of the greatest presidents was not appreciated during his term.

"Eight Years in Power" talks directly on how Obama's legacy has been distorted.  My take:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/12/we-were-eight-years-in-power.html