The Ministry for the Future

 Most people accept that climate change is real, but a significant minority doesn't believe it and others resist any efforts to fix it.  Science fiction can bring out horrible scenes that hopefully will frighten more people into action and also suggest how we might deal with the disaster.  

 Published in 2020 "The Ministry for the Future" does indeed give a reason to be more scared than ever. The initial thrust is something we are dealing with now:  i.e. that despite lots of plans have been made the problem is actually getting worse.   Kim Stanley Robinson is a best selling award winning author who was named "Hero of the Environment" by Time magazine in 2008.

The story starts with a killer heat wave in India.  This marks a breaking point for some.  Words are no longer enough.  A small group believes if someone doesn't live up to their word they should be assassinated.  They don't stop there, but also target high users of carbon, for example airplanes, but not battery powered ones are blown up as an effective way to cut air travel.  The Indian government decides to defy regulations and seed clouds to induce rain and it works.

Some scary scenarios are painted.  Coastal cities are covered with water.  Insurance premiums would be too high and the government too indebted for the economy to survive.  Fires and floods limited food production.  Refugees seek protection from the weather causing more turmoil.

We soon encounter an executive with the Ministry for the Future.  The agency was designed to focus on future generations that are not catered to with the current generation.  One of her focuses is on finances, but she soon finds that bankers are more interested in protecting currencies.  Worsening inequality exacerbates conflicts.  Refugees were rapidly increasing and reaching the size of mid sized countries.

In 1944 at Breton Woods John Maynard Keynes made a proposal to avoid developing countries from becoming too debt ridden and to make for a balance between the rich and poor.  Americans preferred that their currency become the global standard.  Read more about this most under appreciated man:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2012/04/book-on-john-maynard-keynes.html

One bright idea was a carbon coin which could only be earned by proven carbon sequestration or reducing carbon impacts.  At first bankers resisted the idea, but money is worthless if there is not civilization to back it up or products to buy.  Eventually it caught on and some took advantage with the author suggesting Saudi Arabia might agree to cut off oil production in return for a huge amount of carbon coins.  As one of the obstacles was the control of currency this opened up more possibilities.

Forestation was a key tool as were activities at the polar extremes and in the oceans.  The world birth rate had been declining for decades and that helped as well.

The author explores many political situations and scientific effort. including geo engineering.  Predicting political trends is dangerous and since publication there has been the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  But generally he has a good understanding of political dynamics.  It is possible that the climate crisis could lead to more peace and equality as in order to overcome it a great deal of co-operation is required, otherwise a total breakdown is our future.

Science fiction can be a useful tool to project the future.  Even if you are an ardent activist this book will open your mind.  If you are not an activist you will be motivated to do more.  Below are some earlier blogs that dealt with climate change and science fiction.

http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2011/09/2030-not-that-far-away.html

http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2011/09/conversion-can-sneak-up-on-you-too.html

http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2011/07/great-disruption-is-it-really-on.html

"WINDFALL" WHO BENEFITS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

Some of us find it difficult to understand how people can be so complacent in the face of scientific evidence of climate change. McKenzie Funk, author of "Windfall" can help explain.  As usual it boils down to money.  While some deny the problem, others see an opportunity.

While acknowledging that many, likely the majority of people are likely to suffer, some investors can see where there are opportunities.  Many of these smart insiders feel there is nothing much they can do to stop climate change, others cold heartedly prefer to maximize the opportunity.  Others are adjusting to changing circumstances.

For instance oil companies.  As Arctic ice melts big international conglomerates have access to more sources of oil and easier transport.

Insurance companies have been burned by climate disasters. However they have discovered they are able to raise their rates plus buyers are more motivated to protect themselves.  Insurance companies have also gotten involved with disaster rehabilitations such as private fire fighting companies.

McKenzie started a story about Alpine ski resorts having serious concerns with declining snow cover. Then he veered off to discuss Gulag camps where desalination was developed amongst Jewish prisoners.  Eventually with an Israeli sidestep this evolved to more sophisticated processes that helped make the Sochi Olympics survive melting weather.

Desalination, now used by Israel, Spain, Australia and others is one method of restoring drinkable water to where it is wanted, but it requires a lot of energy that contributes to climate change.

Canada stands to benefit in a number of ways.  The Northwest Passage is becoming more navigable each year and although foreigners assert it should be international waters Canada will still benefit. Although drought in middle latitudes threaten to increase food commodity prices, Canadian agriculture should be able to expand its growing season and area.  Canada also stands to benefit from increased demand for energy with both the oil sands and Arctic drilling.

Climate refugees may be hard to identify, but drought is a little easier.  High food prices force many to seek better conditions.  There is awareness of this in Europe increasingly threatened by immigrants from Africa and in India from Bangladesh and in the southern US from Mexico.  These can all be expected to increase.  One group that benefits from this are private prisons.

Small islands and coastal cities are most endangered by rising water levels.  One nation with a lot of experience and expertise is the Netherlands.  They offer a variety of water management solutions.

Another consequence of climate change is that insects spreading northward and with water, causing diseases like Dengue, Nile virus.  Big and far seeing corporations are developing strategies such as genetically modified seeds as well as genetically tampered insects.

Geo engineering options are becoming more sophisticated.  Patents are being registered.  One basic source is the fact that major volcanic eruptions have had a cooling effect on earth.   One consequence affected rainfall

Not everyone is concerned about money so much.  Greenland has many monetary opportunities, but underlying it for many is the chance to be independent.  Oil, agriculture, mining, tourism, water are all areas that would help them to independence from a benevolent colonizer, Denmark.

The average person can do very little (but they can do some things such as set an example, educate). They can adjust within their circumstances.  Wealthier people in positions of authority can do more, but there is risk of losing their power.  Then there are opportunists.  Between adjusters and opportunists the rest of us have an uphill battle.  It is not just climate deniers that are the problem.

Some people think they are beyond consequences.  Maybe they are right.  Or maybe there is more than meets anyone's eyes.