The Ministry for the Future

 Most people accept that climate change is real, but a significant minority doesn't believe it and others resist any efforts to fix it.  Science fiction can bring out horrible scenes that hopefully will frighten more people into action and also suggest how we might deal with the disaster.  

 Published in 2020 "The Ministry for the Future" does indeed give a reason to be more scared than ever. The initial thrust is something we are dealing with now:  i.e. that despite lots of plans have been made the problem is actually getting worse.   Kim Stanley Robinson is a best selling award winning author who was named "Hero of the Environment" by Time magazine in 2008.

The story starts with a killer heat wave in India.  This marks a breaking point for some.  Words are no longer enough.  A small group believes if someone doesn't live up to their word they should be assassinated.  They don't stop there, but also target high users of carbon, for example airplanes, but not battery powered ones are blown up as an effective way to cut air travel.  The Indian government decides to defy regulations and seed clouds to induce rain and it works.

Some scary scenarios are painted.  Coastal cities are covered with water.  Insurance premiums would be too high and the government too indebted for the economy to survive.  Fires and floods limited food production.  Refugees seek protection from the weather causing more turmoil.

We soon encounter an executive with the Ministry for the Future.  The agency was designed to focus on future generations that are not catered to with the current generation.  One of her focuses is on finances, but she soon finds that bankers are more interested in protecting currencies.  Worsening inequality exacerbates conflicts.  Refugees were rapidly increasing and reaching the size of mid sized countries.

In 1944 at Breton Woods John Maynard Keynes made a proposal to avoid developing countries from becoming too debt ridden and to make for a balance between the rich and poor.  Americans preferred that their currency become the global standard.  Read more about this most under appreciated man:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2012/04/book-on-john-maynard-keynes.html

One bright idea was a carbon coin which could only be earned by proven carbon sequestration or reducing carbon impacts.  At first bankers resisted the idea, but money is worthless if there is not civilization to back it up or products to buy.  Eventually it caught on and some took advantage with the author suggesting Saudi Arabia might agree to cut off oil production in return for a huge amount of carbon coins.  As one of the obstacles was the control of currency this opened up more possibilities.

Forestation was a key tool as were activities at the polar extremes and in the oceans.  The world birth rate had been declining for decades and that helped as well.

The author explores many political situations and scientific effort. including geo engineering.  Predicting political trends is dangerous and since publication there has been the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  But generally he has a good understanding of political dynamics.  It is possible that the climate crisis could lead to more peace and equality as in order to overcome it a great deal of co-operation is required, otherwise a total breakdown is our future.

Science fiction can be a useful tool to project the future.  Even if you are an ardent activist this book will open your mind.  If you are not an activist you will be motivated to do more.  Below are some earlier blogs that dealt with climate change and science fiction.

http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2011/09/2030-not-that-far-away.html

http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2011/09/conversion-can-sneak-up-on-you-too.html

http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2011/07/great-disruption-is-it-really-on.html

"This Changes Everything "deserves major attention

Naomi Klein has earned a reputation for tilting her lance at the establishment.  She attracts a lot of sympathy for her stands, although other people think she is naive.  Mostly the average person is unconcerned about her issues.  Bad mistake as she in my opinion is pretty good at pinpointing problems we all need to be concerned about.  Inequality, climate change, pollution, too much corporate power.

In "This Changes Everything" she sees climate change as an opportunity to change the establishment as well as a serious crisis demanding a global co-operative effort.  She discovers that some conservatives are more concerned about the threat to their idea of a free market.  They want no regulations or be forced to share their profits.  Some also feel insulated from the bad effects of climate change and others feel they can adjust.

They are right to fear that forces that want to protect the environment are dangerous to the status quo.  Naomi sees that wealth (and power) will have to be redistributed to solve the problems that affect all humanity.  One concern she has is to somehow deal with campaign finance laws that allow the wealthy to promote their interests at the expense of everyone else.

The need to harmonize with natural forces is given credence with a wide variety of examples of how vested interests have abused their power to maximize their wealth.  Technology in extracting energy and other natural resources may seem innovative, but to Naomi they seem like desperation from fossil fuel addicts.

Trade agreements work against local buying which is one strategy to reduce environmental stress. They represent the needs and wants or corporate interests at the expense of ordinary citizens.  Infinite growth is seen as the core of the free market.   Trade agreements often restrict renewable energy efforts in various ways

The Green movement has been infiltrated by fossil fuel interests.   She gives examples of Richard Branson, Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, and T Boone Pickens who have all used environmental rhetoric, but have according to Naomi perverted the claims.  They are interested in looking for replacements, but not in root causes.

Geo engineering is favored by many who do not want to change their life style.  Some have used volcanic activity as proof how we can cool down the earth, however Naomi points out they overlook the bad effects of the same volcanic activity.  Other schemes share a great risk of the unknown repercussions.

Time is changing.  Many of the older generation feel buying green and changing a few habits are all they can do.  Young people are more activist and do not rely on buying eco friendly products or donating to green causes as they get right out and protest specific projects.  They are being joined by others who are finding that as extraction and transportation projects spread they impinge on their life style and more importantly their health.

Indigenous groups, most of whom are a lot more attuned to nature have had their legal rights recognized.  White middle class environmentalists are realizing that combating entrenched corporations requires not just money, but legalities.  Aboriginal people are often trapped in their poverty and feel inadequate to use their full legal rights to protect their land.  Alliances are developing, but there are counter pressures.

"The Shock Doctrine" an earlier book which I bought tells how political ideologues impose their ideas on the masses when a catastrophe occurs.  Naomi is suggesting these opportunities can also allow changes from the grass roots up instead of the top down.   Social movements have been more successful in human rights than addressing economic issues, but there is hope (in need of organizing).  Slavery was abolished in Britain, but one of the prices was reparations to the slave owners.

During the writing of this book Naomi made a concentrated effort to become pregnant and finally succeeded to her goal of motherhood.  Along the way her awareness sharpened with regard to fertility.  Species do not necessarily become extinct because of killing, but often because of issues of fertility.  Researching the Gulf Oil Spill she realized the greatest damage was not to mature animals, but those at the embryonic stage.  Her research uncovered many connections between chemical pollution and infertility, birth defects and miscarriages.

The problem will not be solved by those at the top who have vested interests in the status quo, but can only be the result of resistance from the bottom.  Those whose wealth depends upon not finding a solution will have to be dealt with and they will not co-operate unless under great pressure.  A lot of angles are covered in "This Changes Everything" and it also attempts to explain the counter arguments which in all fairness are losing their credibility.  This book sums up the most serious concerns of our time very well--everyone should read it.

"WINDFALL" WHO BENEFITS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

Some of us find it difficult to understand how people can be so complacent in the face of scientific evidence of climate change. McKenzie Funk, author of "Windfall" can help explain.  As usual it boils down to money.  While some deny the problem, others see an opportunity.

While acknowledging that many, likely the majority of people are likely to suffer, some investors can see where there are opportunities.  Many of these smart insiders feel there is nothing much they can do to stop climate change, others cold heartedly prefer to maximize the opportunity.  Others are adjusting to changing circumstances.

For instance oil companies.  As Arctic ice melts big international conglomerates have access to more sources of oil and easier transport.

Insurance companies have been burned by climate disasters. However they have discovered they are able to raise their rates plus buyers are more motivated to protect themselves.  Insurance companies have also gotten involved with disaster rehabilitations such as private fire fighting companies.

McKenzie started a story about Alpine ski resorts having serious concerns with declining snow cover. Then he veered off to discuss Gulag camps where desalination was developed amongst Jewish prisoners.  Eventually with an Israeli sidestep this evolved to more sophisticated processes that helped make the Sochi Olympics survive melting weather.

Desalination, now used by Israel, Spain, Australia and others is one method of restoring drinkable water to where it is wanted, but it requires a lot of energy that contributes to climate change.

Canada stands to benefit in a number of ways.  The Northwest Passage is becoming more navigable each year and although foreigners assert it should be international waters Canada will still benefit. Although drought in middle latitudes threaten to increase food commodity prices, Canadian agriculture should be able to expand its growing season and area.  Canada also stands to benefit from increased demand for energy with both the oil sands and Arctic drilling.

Climate refugees may be hard to identify, but drought is a little easier.  High food prices force many to seek better conditions.  There is awareness of this in Europe increasingly threatened by immigrants from Africa and in India from Bangladesh and in the southern US from Mexico.  These can all be expected to increase.  One group that benefits from this are private prisons.

Small islands and coastal cities are most endangered by rising water levels.  One nation with a lot of experience and expertise is the Netherlands.  They offer a variety of water management solutions.

Another consequence of climate change is that insects spreading northward and with water, causing diseases like Dengue, Nile virus.  Big and far seeing corporations are developing strategies such as genetically modified seeds as well as genetically tampered insects.

Geo engineering options are becoming more sophisticated.  Patents are being registered.  One basic source is the fact that major volcanic eruptions have had a cooling effect on earth.   One consequence affected rainfall

Not everyone is concerned about money so much.  Greenland has many monetary opportunities, but underlying it for many is the chance to be independent.  Oil, agriculture, mining, tourism, water are all areas that would help them to independence from a benevolent colonizer, Denmark.

The average person can do very little (but they can do some things such as set an example, educate). They can adjust within their circumstances.  Wealthier people in positions of authority can do more, but there is risk of losing their power.  Then there are opportunists.  Between adjusters and opportunists the rest of us have an uphill battle.  It is not just climate deniers that are the problem.

Some people think they are beyond consequences.  Maybe they are right.  Or maybe there is more than meets anyone's eyes.