The Confidence Man

The title conveys very well the character of Donald Trump.  

 Maggie Haberman starts her book with a Donald Trump's response to a conversation with her that says a lot, "What do you want me to say?"  She had been assigned to cover Trump before his presidential campaign had been told this would be a great opportunity once his campaign was official. After his defeat and the insurrection she decided to explore his past that had led to this situation.  

He grew up wealthy with a ruthless father who was strict and who often set his kids against one another.  His father, Fred made his wealth in real estate, part of as a developer and also as a landlord.  He dealt with mobsters to hurry along construction and hired undocumented laborers to save expense.  An involvement with a discrimination brought young Donald in contact with Roy Cohn who taught how much they could get away with.  Amongst many other things Cohn taught that you didn't have to pay every invoice and stirring up things meant good publicity.

His father had passed on his habit of using fake names which were initially used dealing with businessmen Fred felt were likely to raise prices once they understand who he was.  Donald used fake names to boost publicity.

Another early influence was Roger Stone who as early as 1988 was encouraging presidential ambitions.  His conservative views were known and his feelings that whatever is done to advance them is acceptable.

There are so many books that tell stories on Donald Trump.  Many of them are repeated in this book, but Maggie really did have a very close relationship with Trump that she does offer a valid perspective on what makes him tick.  My purpose is not to repeat all the stories, but some made a strong impression on me or somehow were overlooked.

Another friend with influence was George Steinbrenner, best known for owning the New York Yankees.  Trump was often able to spend time in the Yankee stadium private box with Steinbrenner who liked to demonstrate his ruthlessness.  "You're fired!" apparently was picked up and used to demonstrate Trump's toughness on "The Apprentice".  Image was always important to Trump.  In fact Trump always tried to get someone else to fire someone he felt deserved it.

His efforts on behalf of Israel such as backing out of the Iran deal, relocating the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, treatment of Palestinians were partly encouraged by his son in law, Jared Kushner, but more directly to Sheldon Adelson, a large significant donor.

An example of his vanity was offered when Hollywood types wanted to use the Plaza Hotel lobby for a scene in a sequel to "Home Alone".  Trump demanded that he be included in the film.  As it turned out his appearance was applauded by audiences.

 Trump ran into financial problems with his construction projects and came to realize he could make money branding all sorts of consumer products, wine, steaks, deodorants, bottled water, etc.  One ideas that seemed a natural was Trump University to tell people the secrets of getting rich with real estate which in the end resulted in a huge settlement in a class lawsuit.  He owned a football team, the New Jersey Generals and got to known Herschel Walker.

One cartoon I recall was to the effect that the person knew Trump lied, but he hated the same people that he did.  In some moments Trump seems remarkably tolerant of racial minorities or members of the LGBTQ community.  On one hand he does whatever gives him an advantage, but more often he gains more advantage from expressing hatred.  With his first electoral declaration he let his base know he hates Mexicans.  He soon let it be known that he hated Muslims.  During one rally he mocked a handicapped reporter.   Once elected he expressed support for racists and didn't want people from "shithole" countries.  

After investigating Russian connections Maggie skims over a few Russian connections much like Michael Cohen and others.   Trump felt suggestions the Russians helped him, diminished his own efforts.  But they are significant. and we can speculate what was behind their contributions:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/06/house-of-trump-house-of-putin.html

 Nancy Pelosi, putting Trump in perspective is quoted:  "Impeachment is so divisive to the country that unless there is something so compelling and so overwhelming, I don't think we should go down that path, because it divides the country.  And he's just not worth it".   Perhaps Trump was really just a tool:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2022/07/trump-as-tool.html

Wealthy people in general liked his policies of cutting taxes and de regulating.  Evangelicals felt good that he was going to do something about abortion and likely do something about gays and transgenders.  Israel and again the  evangelicals were pleased about pulling out of the Iran agreement and moving the American Embassy.  A lot overlooked his catering to Russian preferences.  When Covid started they followed his lead.  Fortunately some people saw through his lies and hatred.  Unfortunately he opened a lot of doors that will be difficult to close. 

 There are many stories and background for Trump's many deeds.  If you've seen Maggie on television, you know she is sharp and deep.  The book expresses that.

 Recently I deleted a request at the library for another Trump book. I have decided like many I am sick of the man and am tired with things changing but little.  Hopefully it will not be necessary, but voters have a habit of making short term decisions.  Much of what I hate about Trump is very obvious from his manner.  Braggarts and insulters are offensive and not usually rational.  His ego is plain to see demanding of attention while also very fragile.

DONALD TRUMP AND IMPEACHMENT

The Republicans know they are being cornered, but they are not going to surrender.  They claim that all the evidence given is just "hearsay" and shouldn't be accepted.   Impeachment is not criminal, but rather political.

Hearsay has merit and has been reinforced by testimony of those who have been given their orders by Trump himself.

Mr Trump is doing his best to make certain that nothing else is available.  But he has overlooked himself.  His transcript is something he seems proud of and it does indicate he gets a good sequence, but it is hard to interpret it any way but that he expects an investigation in return for almost $400 million worth of military equipment.  To all those who think it was a a reasonable offer I would ask what would they think if Barrack Obama had made the offer?  We all know the verdict if that were the case.

Other than that we have several credible people claiming to have heard that in fact the military assistance is being held up because Trump wants to get an announcement of an investigation.  They are also trying to suggest it was Ukraine that interfered in the 2016 American election which is an idea apparently put out by Vladimir Putin.

It is not really relevant, but I was married in a Ukrainian church and have some familiarity with Ukrainian culture.  It is pretty obvious to anyone that Russia wants to control Ukraine which is why they made an effort to put in a pro Russian government.  Paul Manafort who later became a campaign manager for Trump was hired to stir up trouble and was successful at putting in not only a pro Russian government, but one that was also corrupt.  Fortunately his luck ran out (or more people saw they were being hurt by the government) and the Orange Revolution replaced the government.  Russia felt emboldened and attacked Crimea which was recognized as Ukrainian territory under the guise it was really rebels.  It is true there were a large percentage of ethnic Russians who had been encouraged to work in Crimea as part of Soviet policy.  The Russians in fact though had taken off uniforms and pretended to be Ukrainian rebels.  They expanded their efforts into eastern Ukraine where as of today they are still fighting.

The Obama administration found themselves in a delicate position.  Ukraine had been thwarted from joining NATO and the EU and it was well known Russia would resist Western efforts.  They decided to send non lethal equipment.  The Russians kept pushing and Congress under Republican control decided to send lethal equipment.  It was an overwhelming bi-partisan decision.  Somehow Trump got the idea that he could get some negative information on now candidate Joe Biden (and his son).  Rather than go through his own judicial system he felt he could leverage Ukraine into digging up the dirt.  Ukraine is literally fighting for its life, so he was essentially correct.  Fortunately some American government staff got wind of it and have strongly complained.  Trump backed down and released the vital military equipment and has claimed that he had only been concerned with corruption.  One word sums up that--bullshit.

The Mueller Report should have rallied American voters and politicians to action, but somehow was easily dismissed and mostly forgotten.  This incident is relatively minor, but harder to deny.  More thoughts on the Mueller Report.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/07/the-mueller-report-and-american-voter.html

Fitness is an underlying factor.  Honesty, transparency.  fitness to be president--competency--accepting advice.  It is true that many people want Trump removed from office for his policies.  It is also true that most people don't understand how his policies are hurting America and them.

There certainly are problems out there, but some voters blame the wrong people.  There are two main culprits--the rich and the rest of us.  The rich hit at least two ways.  First as investors they are focused on profit which means such things as demanding de regulations, keeping labor costs low including with curbing unions, looking overseas and automation.  Much of their income comes from dividends and capital gains which due to lobbyists get special tax treatment.  Real estate also offers unique tax advantages.

The risks to the Democrats (which means the rest of America) are great.  It is said that "the truth will set you free" but I fear the power of "the big lie."  Already 50% of Americans favor impeachment, but the electoral college distorts the impact of votes.  Trump has calculated where he needs to get the votes that really count.  He continues to stoke his base with hate and ignorance.

I think that censure does make sense as more Republicans might go along with that although many might not dare go even that far.  The media has been lukewarm in some ways.  50% is dismissed when hearings have not moved the dial.  The dial is already higher than under previous impeachment efforts at this stage.  As more information is revealed (after great effort) those on the fence will understand their real interests better.

Nancy Pelosi has made the difficult choice and Adam Schiff has presented an obvious case.  It is very likely that the Senate will vote down the impeachment and that Trump will claim he has been vindicated against the witch hunt and could possibly be re-elected for another disastrous four years.  The hope is the information will get out there and Trump and the tail coating Republicans will be ousted from power.  Overcoming the damage will be a long difficult haul, but the sooner it starts the better.

The Impeachment Dilemma

What a dilemma!  Doing the right thing could backfire with disastrous consequences.

Assuming the Democrats finally go ahead and publicly impeach Mr Trump and carry the House of Representatives it is further assumed that Mr Trump will retaliate and unleash even worse measures and very possibly get re-elected as we also assume the Senate will reject impeachment.  Meanwhile he will stall as much as possible thereby strengthening the case for obstruction.  He will try to run out the clock.

The merits of the case are very obvious.  It also seems that many people will ignore them in favor of what they believe Trump has done on their behest.  Stood up against the Mexicans, minorities of all sorts, reset the judicial system to abolish abortion, legislate tax deductions and maintain their gun rights.  Not impeachable, but very troubling was dropping out of both the Iran agreement (which more people can appreciate was counter productive) and the Paris Climate agreement.  It is obvious these decisions were not in the interests of Americans.  Less obvious to many is that the deficit is on track to increase dramatically.

The retaliation seems very likely, but an examination might be worthy.  For the Republicans who dared to vote against him--they will be primaried and likely to lose their positions to Trump's rabid base.  On the other hand this may further tip the balance against Trump and the Republicans.  His base seems to be somewhere around 30%, fairly well situated to take advantage of the electoral college, but that includes a lot of voters who are concerned about his morals but like his results/efforts.  And there are also the apathetic voters who felt their vote wasn't worth the effort but now many will be upset and fearful of what the president might do.

Some Democrat congress members are in sketchy territory.  They are the ones where Trump triumphed in 2016 and they squeaked by in 2018.  Some of them might well lose, but again other factors will play a role.  Trump supporters that have been disillusioned and the apathetic voter now realizing their vote could make a difference.

A frightening possibility is a civil war.  Trump will claim his enemies are acting against the constitution.  An election loss was rigged.  I have been impressed how his base overlooks all his many faults.  They really believe there is a conspiracy of established corporations, political powers  and anti-Trump media.  The electorate has been polarized more than ever and it is difficult to imagine that either side would accept any outcome.  There doesn't need to be organized warring armies to do permanent damage to American ideals.

What are the Democrats to do?  They will be hated by Trumpists and upset their followers who fear the result.  If not sooner the issue will come to a head this Thursday when information legally required is to be delivered.  Maybe it will and maybe even it might exonerate the President.  At best any evidence legitimizing Trump will be suspicious.  The context that is already known is pretty damning.  The Mueller Report, despite being dismissed actually already contains impeachable evidence.

A lot of big money (especially fossil fuels, private prisons, pharmaceuticals, gun manufacturers) will have to make a decision that may be increasingly difficult.  Do they support the president who represents their vested interests or do they take a longer view and support the good of the country which might be necessary to maintain consumer support.

It boils down to how well the Democrats present their case.  It is likely they will develop an audience comparable to that for the O.J. Simpson trial, but important to remember although the evidence was pretty damning he got off.  One concern has to be not to appear partisan.  The Corey Lewandowski hearing was handicapped with grandstanding of elected politicians while the best points were made by legal experts whose efforts had little public awareness.  So far he escaped contempt of court.

Television can attract a bigger audience than did the Mueller Report.  There is sure to be clever and loud objections to the evidence.  Unfortunately nothing will be accomplished during the trial and that will of course be blamed on the Democrats.

In a matter of hours this blog can be outdated.