Impeachment

Impeachment is supposed to rectify abuses of power.  The process is unavoidably political and subject to abuse.

 Donald Trump commands cult like adulation.  This adulation built on fraud is very real.  Republicans in Congress are afraid of jeopardizing their careers.  That fear is further proof that Trump did indeed expect violence to bolster his cause.

It appears unlikely that Trump will be convicted by Congress and the whole process may end up being counter productive.  The Democrats have an agenda that polls indicate are favored by most Americans, but the impeachment could be a destructive distraction.

To me the point is to reach the American public.  The evidence is not disputable and non conviction would set a precedent.  Some of the public is being swayed.  When they make their judgment they can express it in a private voting booth.  Others can make their view known to their Congress representative and may in some cases support a wavering politician.  A few constituents might bolster the courage of a Senator and perhaps they will perceive a safety in numbers.

One of the most galling factors is that Trump and his followers were angry that Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States refused to defy the Constitution.  By presiding over the official Electoral College many cried out for his hanging.  Only brave staff saved Congressional members.  Many of those same members are afraid to convict Trump or even to criticize him.  A few brave Republicans seem destined to have early primaries and lose much support.   

A bigger root cause is how big money has taken over political decisions.  It has long been known that the average voter was not concerned about the Republican economic agenda.  We also know that most voters do not really examine the issues in depth.  Big money is able to present disinformation and tap into prejudices and fears that have a strong motivation.  

Naturally everyone would like to have more money in their pocket and so tax reductions sound great.  A progressive tax system can be portrayed as unfair, but it is not in principle.  The government needs money to fulfill its purposes and most favor much of the program as it has positive effects for them.  They might object to others as benefiting such as immigrants, minorities, but that is usually short sighted.  We need immigrants and minorities contribute to the general welfare.  Surely gun rights are not meant to allow massacres.  Unwanted babies can be avoided and fearful mothers can live.  Gays have led distorted lives, but we know that they also contribute to our welfare.

The powers behind the scene need a program that appeals to a wide audience which generally highlights various social issues that for many are the one issue they understand and will vote on.  Such issues as abortion, gay rights, gun rights, immigration as attract many who don't understand the economic consequences and I would add do not really appreciate the depth of the issues.  The Republican stance on these issues hurt more than any benefit.

There are some factors  that should change the attitudes, but it will take probably decades.   Demographically the minorities are taking over.  Younger people will be more comfortable with "others" and probably better educated.   The older ones who want to maintain the status quo are dying off.  

I don't know what will happen, but I wanted to be on the record.

WHAT NOW?

Democracy has taken a big blow with the impeachment "trial."

In some ways the Republicans know they did wrong, but felt helpless to do anything about it.  Many admitted that indeed the charges had been proved.  In some cases they felt what Trump did was bad, it just wasn't bad enough to upset the status quo.  Others were aware that they could protest (at some harm to themselves) and in the end the result of acquittal would prevail.

These are intelligent men and women who did something disagreeable to themselves.  To me, it is because of mob rule and corruption.  The Republicans feared the consequences of offending Trump who has proved to be very vindictive.  The arrogance of Trump is supported by a stubborn base, the electoral system, media support and corruption.

The stubborn base feels they have been treated unfairly.  Why are they poor and powerless while obviously selfish people hurt them?  Many of them are essentially one issue voters who feel very strongly about their concern and overlook how Trump (and the Republicans) have packaged their concern together with economic concerns of the rich.  (http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2020/01/one-issue-voters.html)   Trump is a vocal liar who has achieved celebrity status.  He uncovers prejudice that many are reluctant to admit.
 
The electoral system was set up by slave owners who feared the industrial north would outvote them and curtail their economic system.  Slavery has been abolished, but there has been a long legacy of pride and prejudice that is still part of human nature. In Canada to lure Prince Edward Island into Confederation they were offered and accepted a guarantee of 4 members of Parliament that was disproportionate to their population.  In America small states are able to fight above their weight class and to some extent it can be justified.  They have a different legitimate viewpoint that should be heeded.  But sharp politicians realize they don't need to cultivate a majority vote, but with a winner take all in most states can squeeze a winning combination.  Opinions are so set that presidential candidates do not waste precious resources in states that are consistently on one side or another.

The media often is quite strong in their condemnation of Trump and his policies, but it seems tempered.  He is so controversial that he draws attention and thereby gains a relatively cheap platform and it seems to reinforce his celebrity status.  Wealthy interests are increasingly in control of media outlets and in some cases are very slanted and in others soften their criticism.  They are increasingly sophisticated how to manipulate using massive amounts of data.

One of the problems of unregulated capitalism is that it tends to concentrate wealth.  The wealthy have power that they naturally tend to use in order to maintain their wealth.  They are the ones who pay for lobbyists to persuade those with legislative power to pass laws that favor the rich.  Taxes are one area that can be modified so the rich can grab a larger share of profits.  Regulations are a restraint on their ability to squeeze more profit.  Unions and minimum wage laws impact their ability to boost profits.  Discrimination laws impact working conditions and in many cases affect their feelings of self righteous superiority.  Health regulations affect what we eat, drugs we use and how safe we are.  Trump is especially vain and selfish and favors his personal and family interests above all others.  Campaign laws have loosened so that the very wealthy can get their message out and to some extent without attribution.  Corruption has now reached the stage where a dishonest politician can gain help from foreign entities who have their own agenda.

He may not be acquitted in the next few days as predicted, but it certainly seems likely.  The Democrats are in the midst of selecting a candidate to oppose Trump and have to be concerned how this impeachment effort affects their choice.  One of the biggest single factors is the ability to defeat Trump.  Joe Biden may be tainted, but others feel he is the one most likely to defeat Trump.  It is certain whoever wins the nomination will be slandered viciously by the Trump team.  Other Democrats feel that Trump can be defeated by any candidate, so why not go for a more progressive candidate.

To me where Trump is more vulnerable is his base.  They have been lied to and in many cases hurt badly.  All the talk about stock market records and job reports hides many economic realities.  Wealth is being more concentrated, Americans are not protected as much as before and important problems  such as the climate crisis are being ignored.

Bolton's book, at this point seems like it could make a difference.  An unlikely Democrat tool he has his own motivations and policy preferences.   Although it supposedly contains some explosive information with the credibility of a true insider.  There have been other incriminating books that have probably dampened Trump's approval, but have had almost no effect on his base.  He has proved most of the time that he can use his base to gain his preferences.

Part of me is outraged at the many insults he has delivered and the harmful policies he has helped arrange.  To others they are amusing or helpful or ignorable.  Not enough impact.  It is sometimes difficult to convince someone they have been lied to or worse, manipulated, but that may be the most effective.   If they are really upset about abortions they can easily forgive infidelity or a tax break for the rich.  They accept that Trump exaggerates, embellishes, distorts and outright lies.  Some rationalize that he does something really important to them or is entertaining.

The hope is he will lie about something that is important to them and they become aware of it.  What is important aside from the one issue?  One possibility is betrayal of the nation, not just accepting help.  There have been lots of examples---ignoring his own intelligence agencies and accepting the word of Putin--abandoning the Kurds who were essential to U.S. policy, delaying much needed aid for the Ukrainians to resist the Russians, poor treatment of immigrants who have helped America.  It won't affect some, but if really hammered home which maybe Bolton's book may help with it will affect some.

Everyone has friends, acquaintances, fellow workers who have been betrayed by Trump who proclaims otherwise.  Parents, children, siblings have been hurt through de-regulations, or abusive powers.  It is easier to ignore the abuse of immigrants even if that issue is not your core issue.  Some will come to realize they have been bought so that others (including some they care about) can suffer.

Sincerity is a key component to acceptance.   Trump does many things to undercut his sincerity.  His infidelities should shock more people.  His coverups are also an indication of his deception.

What he really thinks of his base which is not as amusing as his usual insults.   He loves the poorly educated.  He knows better than the Generals.  He is undermining health care.  He is doing away with protections to favor big business. 

It is true that the Democrat policies (pretty much any of the candidates) are superior in my opinion than what Trump is actually doing.  They also are tainted with wealthy money trying to influence the country, but their policies are directed at actually helping the majority.  They should argue for their policies and offer contrasts.  That may not do it.  Much as I admire Michelle Obama, especially when she said "when they go low we go high" it is time to draw the contrasts in more than just style. 

War with Iran?

Anything could happen so my speculation can be outdated very fast.

My previous blog posts have pointed out that United States had orchestrated a coup removing an elected Iranian leader and then helped to set up a hated secret police.  Americans are certainly aware of the 1979 hostage taking after the Iranian Revolution and also of the "Death to America" chants and references to America as Satan.  Americans are programmed to hate Iran

Trump detected this hatred in his campaign and vehemently claimed that the Iran Nuclear Agreement was one of the worst ever negotiated.  Claims were made that Obama had paid Iran a huge amount of money to cement the deal ignoring the reality that it was merely returning money that had been confiscated plus interest.  The biggest concern was to limit nuclear proliferation and it was acknowledged that other concerns would stop the agreement.  Always catering to his base voters Trump ignored that Iran was honoring its part of the agreement and that it had been carefully negotiated with other countries that had their own interests and eventually declared the agreement void.  With the goal of cutting what he considered anti American efforts he increased sanctions  and coerced other nations to participate.

There are a range of criticisms regarding his disregard for international conventions.  Are all agreements subject to reversal at the whim of a new politician?  Is nuclear proliferation something that can controlled?  Can large nations bully smaller nations?   Are international alliances helpful for dealing with international problems?  To me most of Trump's efforts have been a step backward.  The world needs to co-operate to deal with global problems such as the climate crisis, pollution, refugees, nuclear war risks, etc.

Trump has attracted extreme loyalty from a minority of Americans, but has been able to manipulate the tools of gerrymandering, electoral college, corporate media, campaign finance laws, taxes, social media and maybe foreign interests to gain power.  Public opinion has been polarized.

The exact details that led to the decision to kill Qassem Soleimani may not ever be completely known.  There is a long history,   American politicians are characterizing Soleimani  as a terrorist.  He certainly has been responsible for probably the deaths of thousands, many of them innocent and many of them American.  Others would characterize him as a defender of Iranian and Shiite interests.

Was there imminent danger?  There can be little doubt that he was plotting to hurt America and Americans.   Perhaps he had discovered a way to deliver a nuclear bomb on Washington or New York?  If that is so, or even that he was planning to deliver any big blow quick action might have been required.  Why was there not more consultation?  Have the consequences (international in scope) been thought out? 

Americans or Trump might be naive if they feel they can insult Iran and apply pressure without any response from a people who are as proud as they are and who have technical expertise.

On the other hand, might there be other motivations at work?  It is true that from before Trump was elected there were people wanting to unseat him.  I confess I have thought he was a blowhard with a disgusting opinion of his own importance.  He has only reinforced my hostile opinion.  At the same time it is impossible to deny that large numbers of people who think he is their saviour.  We live in a time of immense inequality, of fear and ignorance and of the power of misinformation.

Trump, partly in ignorance and partly realizing his dependence on his base has done a number of outrageous things that have hurt Americans.  His supporters ignore the facts--he is not their saviour, but in fact has been very hurtful to their interests.  The impeachment efforts had been mostly sidelined and seemed destined to failure.  But lately more incriminating evidence has been brought out and the case of obstruction are gaining some traction.  There are also some people that believe Trump is fearful of appearing fearful.

He certainly has not built up credibility either with Americans or internationally.  There is certainly going to be emotions taking over American politics that I fear can push more polarization.  Emotional stability is needed.  Trump has boasted that he is the most stable negotiator ever--BUT he has not demonstrated that at all.  You can be sure patriotism will be demanded.  After spewing hatred in different directions, Trump will expect unity.

What will happen?  How soon will Iran retaliate?  Will impeachment proceedings slow down?  

Just wanted to vent before things get more confusing.

Previous blog with more details:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/05/alarm-bells-on-iran.html

The Impeachment Dilemma

What a dilemma!  Doing the right thing could backfire with disastrous consequences.

Assuming the Democrats finally go ahead and publicly impeach Mr Trump and carry the House of Representatives it is further assumed that Mr Trump will retaliate and unleash even worse measures and very possibly get re-elected as we also assume the Senate will reject impeachment.  Meanwhile he will stall as much as possible thereby strengthening the case for obstruction.  He will try to run out the clock.

The merits of the case are very obvious.  It also seems that many people will ignore them in favor of what they believe Trump has done on their behest.  Stood up against the Mexicans, minorities of all sorts, reset the judicial system to abolish abortion, legislate tax deductions and maintain their gun rights.  Not impeachable, but very troubling was dropping out of both the Iran agreement (which more people can appreciate was counter productive) and the Paris Climate agreement.  It is obvious these decisions were not in the interests of Americans.  Less obvious to many is that the deficit is on track to increase dramatically.

The retaliation seems very likely, but an examination might be worthy.  For the Republicans who dared to vote against him--they will be primaried and likely to lose their positions to Trump's rabid base.  On the other hand this may further tip the balance against Trump and the Republicans.  His base seems to be somewhere around 30%, fairly well situated to take advantage of the electoral college, but that includes a lot of voters who are concerned about his morals but like his results/efforts.  And there are also the apathetic voters who felt their vote wasn't worth the effort but now many will be upset and fearful of what the president might do.

Some Democrat congress members are in sketchy territory.  They are the ones where Trump triumphed in 2016 and they squeaked by in 2018.  Some of them might well lose, but again other factors will play a role.  Trump supporters that have been disillusioned and the apathetic voter now realizing their vote could make a difference.

A frightening possibility is a civil war.  Trump will claim his enemies are acting against the constitution.  An election loss was rigged.  I have been impressed how his base overlooks all his many faults.  They really believe there is a conspiracy of established corporations, political powers  and anti-Trump media.  The electorate has been polarized more than ever and it is difficult to imagine that either side would accept any outcome.  There doesn't need to be organized warring armies to do permanent damage to American ideals.

What are the Democrats to do?  They will be hated by Trumpists and upset their followers who fear the result.  If not sooner the issue will come to a head this Thursday when information legally required is to be delivered.  Maybe it will and maybe even it might exonerate the President.  At best any evidence legitimizing Trump will be suspicious.  The context that is already known is pretty damning.  The Mueller Report, despite being dismissed actually already contains impeachable evidence.

A lot of big money (especially fossil fuels, private prisons, pharmaceuticals, gun manufacturers) will have to make a decision that may be increasingly difficult.  Do they support the president who represents their vested interests or do they take a longer view and support the good of the country which might be necessary to maintain consumer support.

It boils down to how well the Democrats present their case.  It is likely they will develop an audience comparable to that for the O.J. Simpson trial, but important to remember although the evidence was pretty damning he got off.  One concern has to be not to appear partisan.  The Corey Lewandowski hearing was handicapped with grandstanding of elected politicians while the best points were made by legal experts whose efforts had little public awareness.  So far he escaped contempt of court.

Television can attract a bigger audience than did the Mueller Report.  There is sure to be clever and loud objections to the evidence.  Unfortunately nothing will be accomplished during the trial and that will of course be blamed on the Democrats.

In a matter of hours this blog can be outdated.