Why do some people avoid repercussions for their criminal behavior? How do they do it? The rest of us live by rules which we may occasionally break, but usually pay a price for.
This book is really about Donald Trump, but Honig uses many examples of people who have gotten away with something. It was written before the most recent indictments, but anticipated them. Honig's prosecutor experience is well used, not for just for legalisms, but also the psychology.
Jeffrey Epstein was very wealthy and very connected with Bill Clinton,
Donald Trump and Prince Andrew. With lawyers Alan Dershowitz and Ken
Starr he was able to have charges dramatically reduced.
One way mobsters controlled their subordinates was to hire their lawyers. Intimidation would be a tool. Cassidy Hutchinson had to break from her Trump lawyer (after testifying three times in his presence), in order to testify against him.
Trump threatens opposition and often follows through. After the Ukrainian attempt at bribery, Trump was able to demote Alexander Vindman, his uninvolved twin brother and the former ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch. Another notable victim was Liz Cheney. Threats reversed testimony in the prominent cases of Kevin McCarthy and Michael Flynn.
Mobsters use intimidation to control witnesses. Some of it is blatant and behind the scenes. Some of it is more public such as when they pack the courtroom with gangsters.
Trump has used pardons (and the promises of pardons) to stop it or prevent criminal testimony. Some examples include Michael Flynn, Roger Stone, George Papadopoulos, Paul Manafort and Steve Bannon. As he is no longer president the promise of future pardons when re-elected carry some weight. Honig pointed out that President George H.W. Bush pardoned five insiders who had been indicted with regard to the Iran Contra case, thus preventing a potentially politically damaging trial from happening.
Executive privilege had been used as far back as George Washington who felt the need to block the public from sensitive information. At the time of the Nixon scandal his team claimed executive privilege regarding some sensitive tapes. For the first time the Supreme Court acknowledged executive privilege as legitimate, but also declared they could not block the tapes which scared Nixon so much he resigned before a trial could be held. Trump took advantage of interpretations and was able to block communication between staff and Congress. We can only guess what incriminating information was buried.
The Mueller report actually depicted a case against Trump being helped by the Russians, but Honig feels Robert Mueller was handicapped and was too easy in letting William Barr distort the findings. Still many of Trump defenders mock the whole procedure.
Dealing with reality Honig last line hits home; "Imperfect justice is preferable to no justice at all." It will always be infuriating that such as Trump might well get away with it. He speaks with credibility, but like the rest of us, admits Trump might still get away with it.
My memory let me down. I was under the impression Mikhail Khodorkovsky had been a long time friend of Putin and fell out of favor. In fact he was a successful businessman who offended Putin after a few years of giving advice. Mikhail was a leading advocate for western business practices and philanthropy.
As he recounts the perfidy of Putin while extolling his own virtues one hesitates a little as to who is telling the truth. But there can be little doubt about who has almost no credibility--Putin. It is too bad that more people didn't heed the words of Khodorkovsky decades ago and perhaps there would have been no need for this book. His perspective and opinions would serve western powers better than currently.
Khodorkovsky did not have wealthy parents, but he got a good education. His academic interest was chemistry. Some bankers liked him and helped him to get access to foreign currencies through bigger banks. This allowed him to put together a group that took over a heavily indebted state company, Yukos that had not been able to pay its employees. With better business practices modeled on western practices the company was straightened out. With good timing it rose to be the largest tax payer in Russia and Mikhail to be the richest man in the country.
Along the way Khodorkovsky was strongly advocating western business practices and democratic systems. He had many times been called to advise Putin, but too much criticism of the Russian way was too much and Khodorkovsky was eventually charged with spurious crimes and spent over 10 years in prison, mostly in a remote area.
In 2013 he was released to England where at first he thought things were progressing in Russia, but soon felt otherwise. Watching the BBC to improve his English he was struck that the rest of the world depicted Russia quite different than what he was familiar with. It was also quite noticeable that in Russia all Western governments were criticized.
A pro Moscow government in Ukraine was ousted and Russia was determined to assert itself. In 2014 Mikhail flew to Kiev and spoke at Maidan Square to support Ukrainians and later to Donbas. He had set up an advocacy group, Open Russia promoting democracy running unopposed outside Russia but over the years repressed in the country.
Putin is deceptive, saying whatever his audience will accept. Putin's rationalization in a quote: " A strong state is not an anomaly
to be got rid of. Quite the contrary, it is the source of order."
Putin is motivated in large part by domestic politics. The economy is poorly managed and Putin has found foreign aggression raises his popularity. He manipulated elections and when he constitution restricted him to two terms he used Dmitry Mededev as a front man and then rewrote the constitution.
A key person in Putin's setup is Yevgeny Prigozhin who started as a food vendor in St. Petersburg and came to the attention of Putin. Not put off by his gangster reputation and prison history, He came with Putin to Moscow and was tasked with organizing a mercenary group that is officially denied. They seem to appear at various hot spots such as Crimea, Syria, Libya, Georgia, and Central African Republic. Prigozhin was put in charge of interfering in the American Election of 2016 which involved projects in 2014. Many of the Russian efforts involved social media. Robert Mueller correctly identified Prigozhin's role which ended in a sanction.
They did not at first expect Trump to win, but wanted to tarnish America's image. They complained against immigration "failures" Black Lives Matter, Muslims. A favorite strategy was to suggest voter fraud. They did hack some Democrat emails to hurt Hillary Clinton..
Khodorkovsky noted that the Mueller Report was very accurate regarding Russian efforts at the 2016 election. Trump went so far as to fire the FBI director among other efforts to stop the report.
Russia uses poisons with a lab specializing in the nuances. We know they have been used on dissidents as well as former agents, but it is possible we don't know all of the victims. Alexei Navalny, a popular dissident was poisoned twice and saved only by alert doctors and others willing to bend protocols.
After Joe Biden took over the presidency Putin did not let up. The January 6th insurrection demonstrated American hypocrisy.
The Russians are credited with cyber attacks against American corporations with ransomware and also the Joe Biden administration.
Moldova was a small country bordering south of Ukraine. During most of its existence it had a pro Moscow government. A few years ago that government was replaced and when Russia invaded Ukraine Moldova supported Ukraine. Russia had already started supporting an opposition party. Putin also props up the autocratic Belorussian government and although not able to get them to attack Ukraine, have been using their territory for launching missiles.
Russia has long used China as an ally to frighten America, but Russia no longer has the leverage over China that it once had. Noteworthy Putin visited China during the Winter Olympics to shore up support and actually started the invasion during the Winter Paralympics against protocol. China has tried to stay out of it.
His advice is worth considering. He notes that the sanctions used are often depicted as against the Russian people and feels sanctions need to be specifically against members of the administration. Courage is needed to stand up to abusive government behavior. With Open Russia, Mikhail supports opposition publications and tries to educate journalists. He feels confident Putin will eventually be gone as he makes too many mistakes. There may well be an heir, but likely a crisis will depose of them.
Quote from the author: "...a new society cannot be built with anger and revenge" and "...forgiveness is dearer than punishment."
One thing that came out of the Mueller Report was that the Russians were very active at trying to effect the outcome of the American election. At the top there is denial which may in part be due to an over sensitive ego. Others are happy with the result. Some of us aren't happy with the results and perhaps we can be accused of seeking an excuse for our poor performance or predictions.
Is this healthy? As a possible excuse seeker, my opinion might be suspect, but I ask that even those happy with the results take a longer view.
The Russians have a history of interfering in elections (for that matter so does the U.S.) They are supposed to have interfered in the Brexit election and in Ukraine. Even if some in the U.S. are happy, perhaps they should consider the motivations of the Russians. Do they really worry about abortions or gay rights or immigration? Perhaps, but more obviously they are interested in relieving sanctions, freedom to pursue their goals, particularly with what they consider their sphere of influence. Perhaps Putin has his own sensitivities and was offended by Hilary Clinton who bluntly criticized him.
The point is Russia had goals that were not necessarily in the best interest of Americans. Russia appears to want to upset alliances such as NATO and the EU. Trump played a small role in these efforts.
But Russia is only one country and there are many with capabilities of interfering and some of them might be interested in upsetting Trump or the Republicans. China and Iran have conflicts. Other nations would have different goals such as North Korea, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Many other nations might feel they have vested interests that need to be steered.
With the U.S. political system sometimes offering a party to gain power with minority support the losers can be resistant to the results. When there is any suspicion that the election itself was unfair there is always danger of rebellion in one form or another.
Personally I would like to add that any party that actually needed foreign help to win might not have the best interest of their voters in mind. For instance the recent tax cut benefited the wealthiest the most in absolute dollars, but more importantly is already generating an increased deficit. De-regulations that enable greater profit for business also remove financial and environmental protections that will do great harm over a period of time. Budget cuts for education and health care can not only hurt individuals, but are bad for society.
Solutions are known, but the political will of the American Senate is suspect. Some senators such as Mitch McConnell have a vested interest in the status quo.
Any time the will of the people is thwarted it hurts. Even if it happens in another country. In addition we need to be concerned that the will of the people is subject to manipulation.
The American voter is making me feel naive. It is hard to understand how they could support a man who lies, who brags, who displays ignorance, who denigrates in every direction and in my opinion has policies that hurt almost everyone. The best explanation seems to be that the Republicans and Mr Trump have consolidated a lot of one issue voters who do not analyze much beyond that one issue.
The 1% and those aspiring to it are focused on economic issues such as lower tax rates and de-regulation. Both of these issues if they had their way are very likely to hurt everyone else. They understand this as well as anyone. To maintain their status they have to offer something in order to gain control. The spin doctors have developed at least three categories that are reinforced by a few superficial issues. The main categories are gun rights, bigotry and abortion. There is a natural overlapping, but for many they are focused on their one issue. The Republicans have added in patriotism reflected in superficial aspects such as respect for the flag and other symbols and more critically military power.
Gun rights are supposedly based on the second amendment, but in truth it can be interpreted quite differently than the NRA has chosen. Aside from constitutional justification (some might say twisting) they rely on fear. Fear feeds on bigotry. The reality is that Americans have put themselves in great danger from accidents, suicides, impulsive responses, abusive power that in fact they have a scary rate of deaths by guns. Gun rights garner so much emotional support that its advocates are not swayed by policies on other issues.
Bigotry is really just prejudice taken to more extremes. We all make pre-judgments as part of our heredity. We do not readily understand the other. We tend to congregate around those we feel most comfortable with. Demographic trends are that the establishment white race is losing power. Traditionally older straight white males have had the most power and they can see that power is diminishing. We live in a global society whether we leave our neighborhood or not. Former colonies are asserting their rights. Women, homosexuals, ethnic minorities and even youth are much more assertive and disrespectful. When jobs are hard to come by it is easy to blame the "others." We are stronger as a group when everyone gets an equal chance to contribute. Bigotry is very often counter-productive--check http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/06/dying-of-whiteness.html
Abortion is very emotional. Life is sacred and abortion is literally murder. But we have to acknowledge that when faced with an unwanted pregnancy people (men as well as women) it is seen as a life threatening situation. If legal abortion is not available many (including conservatives and even Christians) would seek illegal abortions, even crude versions. Women die, other lives are "ruined." One study demonstrated that a significant reason for a decline in crime rates was that after abortion was legalized fewer potential criminals were born, i.e. for the most part those born in poverty and dysfunctional parenting.
One obvious solution is sex education coupled with easier access to contraception. Also make parenting easier with supportive economic policies and more tolerance. It seems that many of those opposed to abortion are also concerned about promiscuity and thus are also against anything that enables more sex. Some feel the only justification for sex is procreation. Many feel promiscuity must be punished (stated by Trump himself) and frown on those who are guilty. In reality promiscuity is often harmful to both individuals and society, but sex is also perhaps the most effective bonding agent which can lead to strong family relations.
How does all this relate to Mueller's report? America is polarized. Outside political realities people are unique, but the political structure Americans live in force most of them into one of two parties. Sure other parties do receive votes, but if you are really determined to affect the outcome it is logical to choose one or the other party.
What I believe has happened is that government has developed to be very complicated and very distant that few really analyze the choice. Loyalties among relatives and friends are common and social pressures to stick with the team are underlying. Big money and ever developing modern technology are used to manipulate us. Check http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2016/07/dark-money-by-jane-mayer.html
What that boils down to is that most Americans are committed to one of the parties and do not pay much attention to the other party except to find criticism.
I guess the slick lawyers would say the case against Donald Trump is circumstantial at best and likely rigged by the Deep State. But when circumstances were being attributed to the Democrats facts were twisted and spun and I must admit seemed extremely false. The Benghazi attack was a very unfortunate occurrence, but not particularly unexpected. A dangerous place in which those directly involved realized was risky. The Obama administration had its role by opting to get involved in Libyan rebellion, but Republicans were very quick to attack and tenacious when they felt they could spin it into something evil.
What is visible to anyone who read the report or even just followed the news from a reliable source is the evidence casts strong suspicions. Multiple contacts between Trump's team and the Russians tied to actual policies and public statements. Trump rejected government intelligence resources in favor of Putin. Trump made many public obstruction efforts which by themselves would indicate he is hiding something. He is the first presidential candidate to refuse to reveal his tax returns. On top of all that the Mueller report is obviously reminding us of the many instances of obstruction and contact that Russians made determined and systematic efforts to turn the election to Trump's favor. One must wonder why and note that Russia has indeed attained some of its goals.
A good hunk of Trump's supporters are indifferent or even adamant the whole process is rigged against a man who has done commendable things they feel are worth whatever it took.
The commendable things include a very harsh campaign against desperate refugees both from south of their border and from the Mid East. De-regulating has progressed, but without too close a look in fact are removing financial and environmental protections for everyone. Budget cuts to education and health care stand to have long term disastrous results. Withdrawing from the Paris and Iran Nuclear agreements are having potentially catastrophic results. Bending the Supreme Court and lower courts to conservative (Trumpian) outcomes which will drag on for decades with likely unhealthy consequences. To top all that off, security measures to protect their election integrity are being sidelined.
To me an underlying problem is inequality. It has always been that those who have power are able to set the rules and build increasing wealth and power. The only thing that breaks this trend is a revolution. Revolutions are stigmatized by those in power and for most of us they are frightening because they upset our comfortable status quo.
The wealthy and powerful are able to draw in enough of the masses to defend the status quo sometimes, as now by diverting attention from the real problems. In a recent blog about "Amusing ourselves to death" it was assumed we are headed for a dystopia, but that there are two contrasting versions of the vehicle. "1984" represents a harsh path with censorship, a police state, etc. "Brave New World" by contrast suggests the path may involve pleasurable things (diversions) like drugs and sex. One can see both trends. check out http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2018/05/amusing-ourselves-to-death.html
On one hand we can see censorship and police state trends globally. On the other hand the world seems relatively sexually liberated and literally millions even perhaps billions are using drugs to deal with life's unfairness. Entertainment permeates our lives, even to imbibing news. In education one can see trends towards money making while the arts and philosophy take a back seat.
What can be done? The Democrats are at present opting for a slow walk feeling they can win big in the next election. The Republicans are using their resources to stomp down on the truth and divert attention. The Democrat presidential candidates smelling an opportunity are bringing up policies that appeal to progressives, but scare many moderates. One can imagine the Republicans will welcome a top heavy progressive Democrat candidate, yet the Democrats seem to want to outdo one another.
The testimony did in fact reinforce a lot of damning evidence that may overcome the Republican attacks and Trump's vociferous claims of vindication. There are also several ongoing investigations that may prove to be more damaging, but time can also diminish their impact. The Democrats need to voice the evidence more loudly. The Republicans were continually rebuffed on their Benghazi attacks, but continued and it probably was a factor in Hilary Clinton's defeat. We can be certain the Republican spin machine will be loud and over whelming.
Naomi Klein noted that progressives have many separate causes, but they are not united as the Republicans are. Some deep thinking needs to be done. For example Naomi points out the alliance between native groups and environmentalists have given each more power towards their goals. Many groups are devoted to overcoming discrimination against homosexuals, females, the disabled, racial and religious entities. Climate change has energized many activists. Others are trying to use gun controls to make a safer country. Still others are concerned about inequality. There is a little overlap in these concerns, but if each group realizes they have more power working together great things can be accomplished. Compromises will need to be made, but respecting the concerns of other people can enable a much better result. The sooner these compatible causes work together the sooner they can assert themselves. Check http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2018/05/naomi-klein-writes-another-insightful.html
As many of you know I am Canadian and we have our share of problems, but we have more than two parties and the "extra" parties do have some power, so we have more choices. I also believe proportional voting would give even more choices that would give better government. As Canadians we are small and we know it--what happens in United States has a profound effect on us. What are you going to do about it?
The Mueller Report, redacted as it is, is pretty damning. The media, many activists and the Democrats will certainly kick up a fuss. The next move is really up to the Republicans. They can fight being pushed out with legalities and using their control of the Senate and Presidency and now even the Supreme Court. But eventually they will reckon against the 2020 election.
That must give many pause for reflection. The Mueller report is only a part of what crimes and misdemeanors are yet to come. Not only is Trump's past full of legal and public relations problems, but going back to the CIA/FBI revelations to key Congressional members there is more cause for concern. Mitch McConnell threatened the Obama administration that he would accuse them of meddling in an election, thus creating a clear path aided by the Russians. Now we learn the Kentucky Senator and Majority leader also had some dealings with the Russians.
Would the public overlook all this Russian inter actions and Trump's obvious attempts at obstruction? Many would forgive Trump for various reasons. I think much of the 1% are very grateful for their tax rebates plus loosening up constricting regulations. Others are pleased at all the rhetoric and action against minorities.
Many were discouraged for their job prospects and lapped up many distortions against Hillary Clinton. A few may be willing to examine their perceptions. Others may realize that many policies were not in their interests.
Minorities are not the problem for job prospects. Really it boils down to the greed of those with power and money. They are looking for cheaper alternatives and finding them with automation (and artificial intelligence) and shifting increasingly job descriptions to low labour costs, less regulation overseas markets. There are ways of dealing with these problems, but they aren't given much of a platform. Although a bit outdated here is a blog from 2014 that illustrates the job future: http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2015/08/rise-of-robots.html
The tax cut was really engineered by donations from the wealthy. And although a token amount was given to encourage low income voters the wealthy supporters gained a bigger hunk of available wealth. Some have invested in creating jobs and of course extra money being spent creates jobs. However huge chunks of money were mainly used to consolidate wealth. On the other side the government will be dealing with deficits which eventually all tax payers will suffer for. But at the same time programs that benefit lower income people will be curtailed as the wealthy see them as harmful to their interests. The many inter connections will increase inequality.
Trump has gone against the majority in many ways although admittedly his base likes much of his efforts and/or find him entertaining. He has offended many allies and upset peace initiatives. Meddling in the Mid East endangers us all. Some of it was just to please his base, but some was for selfish unfathomable reasons. The Iran Nuclear deal did not suit his allies in Israel and Saudi Arabia, but was critical. for world peace He took the side of Israel regarding Iran plus Palestine and also of the Saudi Arabians on Yemen. Another group of voters will be threatened by these actions.
He has gone against American traditions regarding Russia. Although no collusion has been legally declared more Americans will wonder what the connection must be between Russian election aid and Trump's many favorable words and actions.
On the social front besides rhetoric and actions against visible minorities he also supported anti-LGBT efforts. A touchy issue that is very key for many voters is abortion. Most people are repulsed by abortion, but realized that effective ways to diminish it include sex education and access to contraception. Some realize that it is difficult to judge women and their families when they find themselves in an unwelcome pregnancy--rape, incest, health issues, economic hardship are some factors. Sex is very hard to control and in a misogynous and sexually obsessive society, men are able to avoid responsibility. Society seems to be evolving in their acceptance of new morality.
All of this must make the upcoming election frightful for many Republicans. Even those in what have been considered safe seats have to be worried how much power they will have if their Republican colleagues are not able to win. If they refuse to take any responsibility how will their voters react? They are already sliding.
Much of party actions are coordinated, but they have to realize real power comes from being part of majority with control of Congress, the president and judicial. If they punish the "bad apples" and show respect for bi partisan efforts inevitably some people will forgive them. Impeachment is risky for both sides and at this stage unlikely to happen. Renominating Donald Trump should also be a risky choice for the Republicans. An association with Donald Trump could drag down many Republicans.
Much of this mess will carry on. The Republicans (giving a lot of credit to Mitch McConnell) managed to avoid a Democratic Supreme Court choice replace a conservative judge and then go on to add two more of their choices. At the lower levels of the judiciary Republicans have been very active in assuring a conservative bent for at least another generation. The electoral college will continue to distort the popular vote and states still have leeway to gerrymander. (Dark) money will still be effective at subverting votes.
It may be a few years before the U.S. is back on track. They have to earn trust from their allies and respect from others. They need to tackle problems like climate change, future of jobs, inequality and campaign finance.
