ALARM BELLS ON IRAN

There is a concerted effort to paint Iran as the bad guy who might have to be taught a lesson.  Iran is far from perfect, but are they really the bad guy?

Much is made of their support for groups that are labeled terrorist.  Yes, that can certainly endanger some of our friends.  On the other hand it seems they are protecting fellow Shiites where they have been under attack in Yemen, Lebanon and elsewhere much like Americans profess alarm over Christians being besieged.  Yes, Tehran uses very scary rhetoric, but has anybody listened to Mr Trump?  Has much notice been given to the ever increasing restrictions on the Palestinians which many consider criminal?

A huge mistake was when Trump decided to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.  He claimed it didn't go far enough and he would force them to bend to his will.  We all want this to be a nuclear free world where everybody co-operates but in fact there is too much distrust.  Trump treats North Korea with more care, perhaps because he has been made aware they have nuclear weapons.  Libya decided to demolish their nuclear weapons, but that didn't protect Moamar Gaddafi.  Do Americans pay attention to history?

My core contention is that the Iran nuclear agreement not only gave some temporary relief from nuclear fears, but also was an opportunity to build trust that would allow other western concerns to be dealt with.  No matter what agreement the Americans can force upon the Iranians do they really expect others to trust them now?

In 1953 the Iranians had a democratically elected leader who was trying to follow the example of an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Americans to share oil revenue.  The British resisted and requested help from the U.S.  After a successful coup, Mohammed was replaced by the Shah.  To consolidate his power he sought help from the C.I.A. to set up SAVAK, a secret police service.  One of the trainers was Norman Schwarzkopf, later famous for the Iraq invasion.  They also involved the Israeli MOSSAD.  The purpose was to track and control enemies of the Pahlavi family.  The Americans left and SAVAK took a turn for more brutality including torture, executions, censorship.  The first director was repelled, eventually becoming a dissident and was assassinated in such a way to appear an accident.  Agents spied on Iranian citizens to uncover dissidents and as a by product promote distrust amongst neighbors.

With the election of Jimmy Carter the Iranians were coerced into alleviating torture and other abuses of power.  Ironically when the Iranian Revolution occurred in 1979, Carter also felt an obligation to support the Shah under siege.  This stirred resentment in Iran and led to the hostage crisis that helped undo Carter's re-election.  A few other ironies--during an oil boycott it was Carter who adopted a conservation strategy to make Americans less dependent on Mid-East oil.  This was ridiculed by Republicans who went onto ridicule climate change.  Another irony provided by the Republicans is that they spun an arms deal with the supposed enemy Iranians to finance an insurrection in Nicaragua.

The Iranian Revolution was sparked by civilian discontent.  As is often the case the people rallied behind fundamentalist clergy who in the end took control.  Similarly the Poles rebelled against the Soviets using the Catholic Church as a tool.  In another blog about corruption it was pointed out that when citizens have little room to protest they support fundamentalists.  see http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2015/07/thieves-of-state.html

After the Iranian Revolution Iraq thought it would take advantage of confusion in Iran to invade it starting in 1980.  Americans, concerned about the prospect of a prolonged war supported Saddam Hussein including providing expertise on chemical weapons that not only killed an estimated 100,000 Iranians but were also used on Kurdish civilians.  Iran was able to quickly repel the invaders, but the conflict dragged on until the United Nations brokered a ceasefire accepted by Iran in 1988.

In 1988 an Iranian passenger airline was shot done in Iranian territory by an American missile.  Americans claimed they mistook it for a military fighter.  All 290 people on board died. Ronald Reagan expressed regret in a diplomatic note.  United States did not admit legal liability or offer a formal apology but did agree to a financial settlement of $61.8 million.

After 9/11 the Bush administration labeled Iran as part of an "axis of evil," although they had provided some intelligence for the crisis.  I have to admit that phrase came from David Frum, a Canadian conservative writer who I have come to like a bit.

There was some concern that Iran would develop nuclear weapons.  They were of course pictured supporting terrorists, threatening Israel and repressive.   Obama judged the priority to be avoiding nuclear weapon proliferation in the Mid East.  Iran had been under an embargo for decades and wanted relief.  Using the talents of John Kerry and co-operation with the United Kingdom, Germany, Russia and China an agreement was hammered out that restricted Iran's nuclear program and opened up relations a bit.  Many Americans were upset that the United States authorized a huge payment to Iran, overlooking the fact that it was money+interest that had been sequestered after the Iranian Revolution.  Monitoring adherence was part of the agreement and Iran was careful to keep their part of the deal.

I am not privy to intelligence that United States might possess and apparently neither are any other governments.  Iran is under provocation and there are political and social factions that are already quite upset with the Americans.  As the provocations step up and attitudes harden an accidental trigger could initiate a Mid-East war.  It is very likely to be larger than the Iraq War was and is also likely to be divisive among allies and citizens when the world should be prioritizing climate change and other global concerns.

It is not hard to speculate about motives.

At this particular moment Trump appears to be fishing for diversions.  The legal attack and perhaps even more the political attack against him appear to be making progress.  Another motivation might be to satisfy Saudi Arabia and Israel.  In the case of Israel they have some legitimate fears, although considering they already have nuclear weapons might be a little exaggerated for domestic politics.  Americans are perhaps too beholden to Israel who is making efforts to totally disenfranchise Palestinians.  Trump had some generous donations predicated on supporting Israeli goals.  In the case of Saudi Arabia Trump seems to have formed a relationship, one might say a business relationship. 

The agreement should have been a building block.  United States and Israel could relieve tension over time.  Like Ronald Reagan once said "Trust but verify." That philosophy had a chance until Trump butted in, like he has in so many other ways.

Some other blogs that might be relevant:

earlier thoughts on the agreement
http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2015/07/the-iran-nuclear-agreement.html 

hopes for an agreement
http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2015/04/will-we-waste-another-opportunity.html

if you enjoy movies, you might appreciate there are dissidents in Iran and there is also artistry.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2016/03/three-persian-directors.html 

An update:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2020/01/war-with-iran.html

Will we waste another opportunity with Iran?

The news is full of commentary on the Iranian nuclear negotiations.  On this side there is serious doubt about how the Iranians can be trusted  Very little direct commentary from the other side.

Trust is perhaps the fulcrum upon which everything else turns.  Americans point out that Iran supports terrorist groups, but Iranians feel they are boosting liberation forces for the Palestinians and fellow Shiite followers.  Americans have meddled in all sorts of countries.  They overlook that back in 1953 the C.I.A. organized and supported a coup d'tat that replaced an elected premier, Mohammed Mosaddeq in Iran in order to protect western economic interests and went on to help set up a brutal secret police force, Savak.  The Americans have also been involved in Haiti, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Chile and others.  Iran has not invaded any country in the past several centuries, but have been invaded by Iraq with support from the United States.  Iran, before being named as part of the Axis of Evil actually provided logistical assistance to the Americans and currently are fighting against a common enemy ISIL.

Militant presidential candidates and other Obama bashers need to realize that additional nations are part of the negotiations and need to be considered in any adjustments of the agreement.  Russia, China, United Kingdom, France and Germany each have a stake in negotiations.  We need to have trust amongst our allies and adversaries.  Bear in mind that each of the parties on our side has a different perspective on the issue and some compromises are part of the deal.  If we don't respect one another how can we expect the other side to respect us.

That is all in the past; what can be done for the future?  We can be sure that military and intelligence resources will be preparing for the inevitable expiration of the agreement.  What will be done to build up mutual trust?  Ten years is half a generation when we probably need a full generation to really make a difference in attitudes (theirs and ours).

The Middle East is a mess.  Invading Iraq has opened up a lot of problems.  Al Qaeda was not welcome there at the start of the American attack, but now it and more extreme elements are threatening the whole area.  Sunni and Shiite distrust and fear each other.  They used to inter marry and carry on business together.  Fundamentalists and extremists are forcefully trying to impose their views on others.  This is an internal dilemma best handled by other Muslims and we need to be careful not to take sides except to defend against violence.

We feel very uncomfortable with dark skinned people, especially if they are Muslim  But we have a responsibility to help with the refuge problem generated by Mideast conflicts.  Refuge camps are potential sources of violence.  One way or another the stresses have to be relieved.   Canada has stated a preference for Christian refugees which might be commendable, but doesn't really deal with the problem.  Americans are not much better while some countries have tried to pick up the slack.

Education is an area where there is a limit to what can be forced upon the resistant masses.  From both the top and grass roots, efforts should be encouraged for cross cultural projects.  They generally take a long time to have a national impact, but are important to start the ball rolling.  Sports and cultural exchanges have been useful with Russia, China and other nations.

I remember years ago having problems with my auto tires.  A persistent slow leak was very inconvenient  and took it to my regular reliable garage, but the problem soon returned.  It took a Syrian immigrant I encountered at a gas station to really fix it.  He made my life better and I am sure he did for others.

Palestine is very often used as an excuse or rationalization, but might there be something to it?  Israel is a haven for Jews that are still discriminated against around the world.  Millions of people (mostly Evangelicals) around the world feel Israel has Apocolyptic meaning that lends very significant support to Israel despite any evidence of unfairness.  The Palestinians feel that it is their land and other Arabs and Muslims feel they have been mistreated by western and Jewish powers.  Settlements are an obvious affront to any honest attempts to reconcile the two races and somehow have to be stopped if not reversed.

During the recent Israeli elections Netanyahu expressed what many consider his true feelings that no two state solution will be instituted while he still has power.  He has backtracked a little, but we should also realize that the Israeli voters have very strong concerns about security.  Emotions such as fear are very difficult to overcome.  Outsiders are painted as not understanding or worse.  We like to think we have their best interests at heart and we truly realize that war is bad for everyone.  Palestine has tired of empty promises and the one sided rhetoric against them and are trying to involve the International Court of Justice.  United States, Russia and China have avoided the court, but in reality the court might be able to accomplish in a more neutral forum what the bigger powers with their vested interests cannot.  Might the Muslim world credit the west with finally rectifying an injustice?

While we look at this from a distance we have more interests and responsibilities.  Climate change, most likely caused by industrial nations has factored into the Mideast by way of droughts.  Ironically some of the same people who believe the Jews have to control the Holy Land before the second coming also believe the climate is controlled by God and we humans should not interfere.  To me they overlook that we have been interfering and not showing respect for God's creation.  Climate change is affecting the entire world in different ways including floods, rising ocean levels, sea water acidification, stifling heat as well as droughts. The Mideast is just one area bearing the burdens of climate change and few see the connection.  There are bound to be more tensions stemming from climate change.

Anti-Muslim forces seem to be strongly influencing America and other nations.  Allied with climate change deniers, conservative right wingers use whatever available tools for their own greedy economic interests.  It is time to take a longer range view or we will all suffer.

An earlier take on some "Persian" experiences: http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2012/10/my-three-persian-experiences.html

Some of you may know that I have family ties to the Arab Muslim part of the world.  Like anyone else when I hear another perspective I often notice that those giving it are decent people with much in common with what I aspire to, it actually is more understandable.  Close your heart and your mind and there is no shortage of weird violent people out there.