Essential Services and the Pandemic

The recent American Supreme Court ruling allowing mass indoor religious services has prompted this examination of what is essential. As this is being written a vaccine seems on the horizon and people are increasingly Covid fatigued 

Total lockdown is not possible or practical.  Humans need food, access to health care and much more to survive and be happy.  We also need social contact.  If all work were to stop, a lot of things are lost.  Consumers would be deprived of the goods they have taken for granted.  Workers of course would lose income.  Another seldom thought concern is what will the workers do with all that free time (and restricted in many of their favored activities)?  A big concern has to be the circulation of money to all levels of citizens, the rich and more importantly the not rich and poor.

I agree with some of the reasoning of the Supreme Court justices but it boils down to what is essential.  Supposedly we could not survive with out some goods and the supporting services.  Every jurisdiction has some control of how essential are defined and controlled.

No body could argue against food, but some "food" is not really essential, but we are addicted to unhealthy foods    Food is truly essential.  The production to some extent relies on imported labour, some of which is illegal and the same may be said of processing.  For most consumers it is the distribution that is the final link.  Maybe we will come to better appreciate the contributions of our rural cousins.  Consider http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2020/10/what-about-those-hicks.html

Medical services are truly a front line essential service.  We put them at daily risk and too many of us ignore their advice.  They need as much protective equipment as society can provide and should be first in line for the upcoming vaccines.

Is liquor necessary?  I would say that politicians know that is one area that would run up against strong resistance.  Prohibition taught us that.  Likely the majority of legislators like to drink from time to time.  So the problem is if they push too hard people will cut around the barriers and lose respect for the law.  Another concern is that alcohol can be linked to increased domestic violence.

Religious services have always been an important part of life for many people.  They see rules bending towards commercial interests as hypocritical.  Those with religious conviction find comfort in their faith.  While others seek solace in alcohol, pornography, overeating, etc. etc. they gain personal strength from their beliefs and yes, their rituals.  For any version of lockdown to work society needs to co-operation of all.  

Schools are critical to our future, but it turns out they are also important to our current economy  Trump's first pleas brought up a reality.  Workers (especially women) cannot work if their children are not being cared for.  The long term view is a country cannot advance without education.  Online has stepped up, but we are finding it requires a commitment from students and their parents that cannot be taken for granted.  Many households do not have access to online learning and that can lead to more inequality.  Children also need social contact and the lack of it in early ages can have unhealthy repercussions for the future.

My son in New Zealand at one time was asked to come in to class to teach the children of essential workers; a recognition of the value of the babysitting process.  New Zealand did get a much better handle on the pandemic and schooling is almost normal as I write this.  A lesson to the rest of the world as their students will have a relative advantage as a result of an early response to the pandemic.

Libraries are one of my crutches to keep my sanity.  I have read a few e-books, watch television including Netflix, but personally love an even wider selection of entertainment (and education) and can appreciate that for some people that is where many get access to computers and even books, DVDs, etc. The library is both a source of information tools, but also a source of entertainment.   Hours have been restricted, borrowing times extended, masks required, cards photoed for contact info.  Would add that some volunteer work I did helping immigrants practice their English has been cut for the time being.

A lot of commercial activity is stalled.  However computer connections have allowed much to carry on.   This is fortunate for those in a position to carry on, but accentuates the differences for those who are not able to carry on or are forced to curtail their normal way of working. 

We can see and evaluate a wide range of responses.  Earlier and tighter strategies work better.  Trump seemed to feel a stalled economy would be bad for his election prospects, but overlooked his strategies have led to worst consequences and we, the whole world will have a bigger mess to clean up.  It might be dangerous to defer to any authority, but it makes sense to rely on scientific medical advice and more people would likely co-operate.  Politicians whose judgment is critical can either encourage compliance or complicate co-operation.  It is their responsibility to draw a balance between human needs and medical necessities. 

During this time an unusual set of circumstances had a personal connection.  My wife had a very close relationship with a woman friend, Helen who developed cancer in a life threatening manner.  Helen had a daughter, Janet in Florida who was also very concerned and spent time in Canada, undergoing a quarantine.  The cancer was relentless and she could foresee she might miss her family (a daughter, Kristen and son in law Rob) and so arranged for them to come up and go through a quarantine.  One big concern was that meant they would be here for several weeks and Rob had a job.  He was an engineer, but did most of his work already online.  He was able to get access to the necessary specialized equipment to his work from Ontario.  Unfortunately all the efforts and sacrifices of the Floridians and my wife were to no avail and Janet had to prepare for a memorial celebration.  Helen had accumulated a lot of friends in her life and it must have been difficult to include some and not open up for others.  The venue selected could combine indoor and outdoor, required masks and temperature checks at the door  encouraged social distancing to a small number of people and as a sort of visitor page we were directed to a contact page.   My daughter, Heather had also had a close relation with Helen and although she is vulnerable because of MS she attended.  The border crossings were a little more cumbersome than usual, but allowed some critical people to cross over to give comfort to Helen.

The future will be very different.  More of us have become comfortable with online shopping and that requires fewer labourers and entrepreneurs, fewer commuting networks and less brick and mortar infrastructure.  These trends have been in progress, but we can expect an acceleration that will cause significant disruptions for many.   Perhaps these trends will tie in well with our upcoming campaign with climate change.  It is hoped that more people will recognize the value of co-operative and understand that we are truly in this and other global issues together.  Inequality will be a challenge as automation will  result in fewer jobs as we know them.    

An earlier blog dealt with the future offered by automation, both dangers and opportunities.  The pandemic with its hygenic issues and displacement of work/leisure habits will accelerate the matter.  If these issues concern you please read:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2015/08/rise-of-robots.html and get back with your thoughts and we can create a sort of forum.

"Growing Pains" as seen by Gwynne Dyer

There are a lot of relevant examples of his points, but "Growing Pains" boils down to the main problem in the world is inequality and a possible solution is a Universal Basic Income."  This is very similar to a speaking session held at the Hamilton Public Library in 2017 at about the same time he was working on the
 book:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/04/gwynne-dyer.html

A focus was on Donald Trump who Gwynne sees like the canary in the coal mine.  How did this happen?  Where should we go from here?

After looking at many details he concludes Trump, better than anyone captured the frustration of many Americans.  He didn't address the real problems, but understood the anger.  As it happens he did not need to mobilize a majority, but tack on the disaffected to the regular Republican voters and even then needed help from the Electoral College and Russians.

Of all the major industrial nations United States has the greatest degree of inequality. They are also the only one of this group not to have a national health plan.  Like all nations they have been increasing automation which is a major factor in inequality as while productivity has increased the gains have been distributed to the already wealthy. 

Brexit and U.S election were at least partially decided by fears of immigration.  Dyer points out those areas with the greatest percentage of immigrants voted to stay in the EU or to the Democrats whereas those with the least percentage of immigrants feared it the most and voted to leave the EU or voted for the Republicans.

Another area of global concern was North Korea and Iran's involvement with nuclear weapons.  Gwynne who has a military background maintains that neither country is a threat to America, but each is concerned with their neighbors. Iran borders a nuclear nation, Pakistan and also with Iraq who at one time also had a nuclear weapons program.  They also fear Saudi Arabia and the United States.  North Korea is concerned by China and more directly American involvement in South Korea.  Gwynne feels both nations realize if they initiated a nuclear attack they would be obliterated. 

No solution that ignores human nature would be effective.  Dyer consulted with Franz de Waal, a famous specialist in primates.  They are studying primate behavior and noting that all primates, excluding humans are inequal, authoritarian and prone to violence.  In some ways not a lot different than modern man.  However it seems likely that hunter-gatherers, who predated organized agriculture were grouped in numbers between 100 to 200 with everyone knowing everyone.  It is believed that they were able to be equalitarian.  Ambitious members were held in check limiting their power to specific expertise.

As with dozens of books I have read the big change comes with the development of agriculture  For the first time humans gathered in thousands and even up to millions.  There was no check on ambitions and men (not likely women) were able to develop a hierarchy which means inequality got started.

What helped democracy develop in western nations was improved communications with an early breakthrough was with the Gutenberg printing press.  Ideas were no longer exclusively coming from the top, but spread more evenly.  In the United States they achieved the highest rate of literacy.  Thomas Paine published in 1776 a pamphlet, "Common Sense" which sold 120,000 copies within 3 months and likely read by at least a million people with a total population of about 2.4 million.

After WWII the Keynesian economic model worked well allowing the economy to be increase while decreasing inequality.  In the 1970's under the leadership of Ronald Reagan the economic models shifted to Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman with a concern about inflation.  Productivity gain profits also started to shift to the top10%.

When we get to the 2016 election, Trump was not the only one to attract attention to frustrated voters, but Bernie Sanders was not successful in the Democratic primaries.  Previously most of the time the winning candidate would get most of the votes of their rivals, but in this case many Sanders supporters in the rust belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania chose Trump instead of Hillary helping with the margin of the Trump victory.  It is also estimated that Trump got free $5 billion worth of coverage by being newsworthy.  

The Universal Basic Income is a possible solution.  One of the problems with a basic income program or  other welfare measures is  they convey stigmatization.  Those receiving income feel humiliation and in truth the rest of us tend to look down on them.   Make it universal with billionaires also receiving it makes it more acceptable and easier to administer.  For those who have other income it may well raise them to higher tax bracket and that would help pay for it, even without raising tax rates.   Studies with limited examples have demonstrated there is minimal reduction in willingness to work.

Gwynne also discusses the possible loss of meaning that comes from not working.  He points out that many people do not work right now and have found activities to fill in the missing work time.  He acknowledges that some of them might be drinking more beer and/or watching more television.   In the past society has accepted leisure activities of the rich, but not so for the poor.  Our attitudes towards leisure may take time to change, but Gwynne feels there will be improvements over time.

There can be adjustments to allow for cost of living in different geographic areas, disabilities, children, etc.  Gwynne recognizes that the idea might not work but it needs to be tested and if found insufficient, alternatives need to be found.

Automation will ensure a very high unemployment rate which will result in either a major redistribution of income or a revolution.  High unemployment also means consumption will decrease further economic stress.

Gwynne Dyer writes about important matters in an easy to understand format including a few laughs along the way.  One quote from the author:  "History is not cyclical.  There is such a thing as progress."  If you are not fortunate enough to have access to one of the over 100 newspapers with Gwynne's twice weekly column you can catch up at his web site:  http://www.gwynnedyer.com

RACISM--WE ARE ALL GUILTY

Prejudice simply means pre-judging.  We all note differences including non visible differences.  It is in our genes to make a quick assessment, otherwise we might be killed or raped or possibly helped.  We fear what we don't understand as the world is a dangerous place.  We feel safest and most comfortable among people most like ourselves.

In another blog I learned that the wisest people withhold judgment until they get more facts.    http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2016/10/the-wisest-one-in-room.html

But in order to survive a quick, even instantaneous decision is often required.  If we are wrong we could be dead.  However better decisions are more likely when one has more time.  It is normal for first impressions to stick until counter evidence is over whelming.   Abraham Lincoln is quoted as saying, "I don't like that man, I must get to know him better."  The first question after encountering something new should be "Why might my initial impression be wrong?"

We are each unique and capable of contributing to our society given a chance.  Society benefits when everyone is given that chance.  A chance actually starts before birth.  Are our parents treated fairly?  Stress and nutrition are factors while we are still in the womb.  After birth are we given an equal opportunity to learn including avoidance of unhealthy distractions?  Are decisions concerning our future made based on merit?  We likely will never achieve perfection, but should always push towards the goal.

Of course some of us are quicker to recognize opportunity and some realize preparation is critical.  As a collective we do not always realize we all benefit when choices are based on reason and not prejudice (or bias).  We need to respect and encourage individuals who can lead us to a better world but that includes everyone.

Politicians gain power by appealing to emotions.  They use that power to stay in power and expand conntrol.  Republicans have long known that the average American would not support their economic agenda and the only way to achieve power is to appeal to emotions by tying a social agenda. Donald Trump did a masterful job of projecting fear and assigning blame.  His simple solutions hurt many people and are counter productive but appeal to enough people to allow him to indulge in his own personal agenda (which nobody really understands).  Racism has proved to be very effective.

Lyndon Johnson once said, "If you can convince the lowest of white men he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket."  It is so frustrating for those who understand the economic agenda of the Republicans to see those who are getting hurt the most base their vote on social issues and non policy factors. 

When there are problems people look for simple solutions.  We live in a complicated world.  Automation is diminishing the need for manual labour and increasingly so for brain work.  The world is so connected that powerful people can more easily find the weak spots to exploit. We are reaching the limits of what the planet can provide.  Powerful people are in conflict.  There are no simple solutions to most of the serious problems and we need to resist those who offer them.

Ignorance is inescapable.  Education means learning and scraping away a portion of ignorance.  Intelligent people realize they can never know everything.  Education is not just an economic opportunity to be exploited, but critical tools we all need for a fulfilling life.

Homo Sapiens originated in Africa.  Skin was black to protect against the sun--when men moved to cooler climates with less sunlight they needed less melanin and gained advantages of Vitamin D.  In due time  there were many superficial changes in humans while the core remained the same.

What do "others" offer us?  A different perspective.  Uniqueness.  Potential.  Why do we close doors?  Familiarity fosters understanding, but true equality will go forward in uneven steps.  Education is only part of the solution, but a necessary part with many possible approaches.  Racism is an obstacle we all need to overcome if we are to solve the most critical of problems.

An earlier blog with another angle on another side of the refugee crisis with racial implications:   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2018/01/the-brain-drain-fromshithole-countries.html    

A recent blog that discusses how racism actually costs lives:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/06/dying-of-whiteness.html

Gwynne Dyer

Last nite was a special unexpected treat for me.  Gwynne Dyer is my favourite newspaper columnist and I don't say that as an isolated newspaper reader.  I enjoy the columnists for the New York Times and Washington Post amongst others, but Gwynne has impressed me the most.  Somehow he appeared at my local library, Hamilton Public Library.  He did not disappoint.

Trying to figure out what makes him different, the library CEO explained his interest came from noticing the mainstream news did not cover the developing world in any depth, except Gwynne Dyer did.  Although he has a very strong military background (has taught at military colleges and traveled more than most) he has an awareness of political dynamics that is well beyond most.  That also means he understands human dynamics.  The first of the so-called political pundits who recognized the seriousness of climate change.  As a fellow Canadian he realized that although the Western world was dominant it wasn't the only factor in the global affairs.

The topic was Donald Trump, a subject that seems to be on everyone's mind.  Gwynne admitted several times he didn't like him and originally, back in November thought Americans could not be that dumb.  Based in London he also thought the Brits would not be dumb enough to exit the EU.   After interviewing countless people he has evolved his thinking to the point that he thinks Donald Trump might be the wake up call needed.

One difference he explained was that immigration was a  bigger issue in Britain as they were not as used to immigrants unlike United States (and Canada) where most of us are at best a few generations from immigrants ourselves.  Ironically where immigrants are well established in the big cities there was not a strong backlash against them, but in other areas they were one of the key factors.

In America a more serious problem was jobs.  He said official stats are misleading, the true unemployment is much higher in the United States.  The problem is not only one of finance, but also of humiliation.  It is easy to blame outsourcing and immigrants, but Gwynne maintains by far the bigger factor is automation and it will continue to get worse.  Unless something is done he sees anger deciding elections.  The anger could result in someone worse than Donald Trump who he sees like a canary in the coal mine.  One bit of humour (of many instances) was that in twenty years something like 50% of jobs will fall to automation.  He suggested that pole dancing would not.

One possible solution to the dilemma is a universal basic income.  The world is not ready just yet.  He related an experience in Switzerland where the attempt through a referendum failed, was explained as a necessary first step.  He thinks that since the election more people are talking about universal basic income.

His speech was relatively short, but the question period was very interesting.  He handled it brilliantly, giving people a chance to speak their mind.  Korea, Syria were covered with realistic answers.  One of the organizers had to help close the questions or I suspect he would have carried on.

One guest recalled  a talk given at Sir Wilfred Laurier University around 1996 and asked if he had changed his mind.  First he joked that he thought he had had everyone at that talk killed.  He admitted that he might have changed a bit, but that most of his core beliefs are the same

Another guest asked about how inequality is increasing and he foresees that mankind will revert to what most of its history with dictators ruling over the poor masses.  Gwyne reverted back to hunter-gatherer days when there was much more equality, but then when mankind got civilized  more decisions were made top down, because there was relatively poor communication.  The great salvation today is that  there is mass communication.

On another question he commented that the right contained some smart rich people (the ones who earned their money, not those who inherited it) who could easily see that for them to be rich they need customers and they need to avoid a revolution.   One of the big concerns about Universal basic income is if those receiving it will be motivated to do the still necessary work.  He mentioned that  Hamilton is one of three Ontario cities  that will experiment among poor and will help determine a future course.

Gwynne felt that one of the best hopes for the future was international alliances.  One factor with the formation of the EU was to avoid future wars among the European powers and it worked with many other benefits.  Recent developments have restored some of his faith after the Brexit  and Trump disasters.  The United Nations has also been successful in avoiding wars between the big powers.

He also suggested we should encourage Michelle Obama to run for president in 2020.

I met some good friends, Rob and  Sue and learned we have something in common.  Gwynne's column is the first thing they look for in the local paper.

If you are not accessible to one of the 100 or so newspapers around the world that carry his twice weekly columns you can check him out at his webiste:  http://gwynnedyer.com

Inspired by this meeting I read one of his books and for some further insight you can read my review,
http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/06/war-as-explained-by-gwynne-dyer.html

EMIGRATION AND REFUGEES

Immigration frightens a lot of natives forcing us to adapt our life style.  Thousands of people are risking their lives and those of their loved ones.  We hear every week it seems of another boat sinking in the Mediterranean.  Not so long ago we heard about young children being sent up through Central America to the American border.  We know there are millions seeking refuge in western countries.

What would make most people leave the comforts of their home and contact with familiar family, friends and neighbours?   Some no doubt are seeking fortune and could be labeled greedy, but many others are motivated by fear.  Sitting in our comfortable western homes we both wonder why people would risk their lives and fear how they might change our lifestyle.

Trends that are easy to overlook or ignore are continuing to gather steam and it is time for mankind to ask what options we still have.  It is a global problem with causes and effects in every corner.

Mexico, central America and parts of South America are caught up in drug gang wars.  In poor countries it is common for desperate people to do desperate things.  Some have chosen to get involved with the drug trade.  Why is that so profitable?  It isn't because of domestic demand as most locals really can't afford it.  The truth is the demand comes from western countries.  We have more money, but we also have our own kind of despair.  In some cases it boils down to looking for bigger "kicks" and in other cases life seems meaningless.  Others can analyze the causes, but no one can deny the demand for illegal drugs emanates from the wealthier western countries.

In poorer countries those at the bottom have an opportunity to do the spade work (growing, packaging, transporting, selling locally) while others fight for the top where there is often huge profits.  Inevitably the power goes to the most ruthless.  This creates all sorts of other problems.  Drugs amongst the locals hurts health, productivity and feelings of self-worth.  Fighting causes fear.  It is not strange that so many parents in Central America want their children into a safer environment.

Fighting with different motivations is happening in the middle East, including northern Africa.  Literally millions of Syrians have fled their homes and for the most part have ended in refuge camps in nearby counties.  Western countries are reluctant and fearful to accommodate Muslims that they associate with terrorism. Others are willing to take advantage and charge for re-settling.

For decades western corporations with political support have been propping up dictators who were able to keep a lid on tensions.  There have always been what we might label "fanatics", but they were largely ignored or suppressed.  Now many gain attention and support as one way of fighting oppression.  Money that could have been spent on education and alleviation of poverty was spent on military weapons and security measures.  Oil was incredibly cheap and fuelled our lifestyle.  The fanatics are blaming misery on their dictators with their western support.  Just as some fanatics blame our disasters on our sinfulness, the Islamists are seizing the opportunity to blame their enemies and their religious lapses.  Religion is a powerful force that has been abused by many, but admittedly giving many others comfort.

I was surprised to learn in my family tree research that at least two branches of my family fled Europe for religious freedom.  One branch was literally on the boat, after the Mayflower with religious dissenters looking for freedom to worship.  One group actually ganged up together to flee through Indian territory to establish their own church.  Another branch were Mennonites who as anabaptists were persecuted in Europe.  Once established in America another generation felt they had to leave for Canada to avoid conscription.  Like many I have become detached from these earlier forces in my history.

There are many vested interests belittling concerns about Climate Change and they have found allies in fundamentalists, other religious factions and those invested with the status quo.  Scientists have been warning us for years with irrefutable evidence that there are going to be drastic changes.  Drought is having an impact in different parts of the world, now including California, but also Africa, the Middle East, Australia and elsewhere. We forget that agriculture is the base industry of the world--without food everything slows down.  It is only natural that people look for alternatives to make a living and to feed themselves.  In addition to droughts there are also floods and rising sea levels.  Storms are becoming more powerful and having more than just temporary inconveniences.  Bangladesh has developed a reputation for cheap labour which comes from desperation which in part comes from Climate change.

Economics is tied up in everything mentioned so far, but another strong trend is global inequality.  It is true that cheap labour is still in demand and that many poor countries are able to take advantage of rich corporations looking to lower their costs.  A bigger trend is that machines (including computers) are making production less and less dependent on human labour.  It is getting common to talk about the 1% in America, but at one level it seems so unreal.  How can a very few people have so much wealth and power?  Part of it is when they get enough traction they help set the rules and the rules are meant to protect their interests.  Another part is modern technology allows them to seek the lowest production costs which basically means at the expense of others.

Many people feel like they are on a sinking boat and are looking for a way off.  Literally that is what we are seeing in the Mediterranean.

All of this could be an opportunity.  Just as slavery relieved burdens and created wealth for some of our ancestors, machines could do the same more humanely for the benefit of everyone.  Clean energy, cleaning up the mess, education, could help re-balance our enviromen.  Obviously it would take a global effort to re balance some counter productive historical global efforts.  If everyone waits for someone else to make the first move the problems will increase.  Fortunately efforts are being made from different quarters, but at this stage they look like they are not gaining enough traction.

Knowledge could lead to greater awareness of our mutual interests, but that will not be enough.  We also have to develop trust.  Any efforts that boost education and awareness of the true reality will help, but it really boils down to political will.

A phrase credited to Scottish town planner Patrick Geddes,  "think globally act locally" seems appropriate for most of us.  Understanding the issues helps guide voting decisions--but more basically, questioning.  Individuals can only do so much, but understanding the issues and prioritizing choices is something that needs to be brought into the political arena.

At the moment political decisions seem very closely tied to vested interests.   Most of the vested interests seem very narrow so a goal would be to expand the viewpoint of those interests.  One result of increased wealth is greater security concerns in such forms as alarm systems and gated communities.  Does a wealthy person want to live like that or are they too fearful.  Fear is just as big an enemy as greed, especially when they are so short sighted.  Trust is an important element of a solution as we all need to transition to the future.

The wealthy industrialized nations of the west fear that unless the developing nations are willing to forgo their own fossil fuel energy expansion, action on their part is meaningless.  The United Nations seems the most logical place to deal with these problems,  Bi-lateral is most practical for specific issues, but some issues are bigger.  Encouraged to hear that Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and California are tying some of their efforts together.  If these sorts of efforts can expand they can also develop some momentum.  Perhaps we will then expand beyond climate issues to deal with some of the other underlying causes of modern problems.

Photo is of the famous Statue of Liberty during a trip with my office at New York.  also visited Ellis  Island where my wife's Grandmother came from Italy during World War I.

The RETAIL REVIVAL AS SEEN BY DOUG STEPHENS

For people who fear change Doug Stephens paints a scary future for those who like to sell things and services.  His hopeful title indicates he does see opportunities to prosper.  First heard with Mary Ito on Fresh Air--a good source for ideas.

The world has changed and is still in process.  After the Depression it  took the Baby Boom to really get the economy rolling.  After the World II with all the returning soldiers there was fear there would be no jobs for them.  There were other factors, but with the increase in babies being born there was also an increase in demand for goods and services.  As Doug put it, most wanted to "keep up with the Jones" and advertisers had it easy if they had the money to use the three networks in the United States to reach most of the market.

Demographics have certainly changed and so has technology.  We live in a diversified population and with technological changes that were unforseen.  Advertisers now have a lot more channels to use to reach their "targets," but it is more expensive and more challenging to identify your target.  Automation and outsourcing are steadily shifting jobs.  The middle class is being diminished taking away the consumers who have been driving the economy.

Box stores replaced many smaller stores and all physical outlets are now competing against the inter-net.  Retail staff is treated poorly resulting in turnover and bad service.  Doug projects that in the future only two staff strategies will survive.  One set will survive by going as automatic (read self service) with lots of technological support.  The other set will survive by upgrading training, seeking out real product/ service advocates and also supported with technology.

The key question from the author that everyone trying to sell something should ask, When and where in the world are consumers when they are considering or in need of the things we sell.  Figure that out and set your resource to take advantage of it.

The consumer will gain more power.  It is true marketers will be tracking them, but now the consumer can reverse the tables.  With the power of the internet consumers will be able to make better choices of what they really want and marketers will have to adjust.

The third shelf is a new concept that is already progressing.  Consumers can scan Q codes with their smart phones, order products to be delivered conveniently.  The author does not predict the demise of bricks and mortar stores as a big component of shopping is social.

There are many examples of problems and solutions.  The book is very engaging and thought provoking.

For more of Doug's thoughts visit http://www.retailprophet.com/my-book/