Intervention Earth

 It is easy to find a book (or article) on climate change, but the vast majority of citizens pay little heed.  With all the turmoil in southeastern American states voters keep rewarding climate change deniers.  Florida is perhaps the most vulnerable part of America, but their popular Governor Ron DeSantis has gone to great lengths to remove  the concept of "climate change" from state legislation.  Floridians need to wake up.

Climate scientists not only examine the current situation, but also the distant past.  One fact is that there have been five mass extinctions with the most recently one being 66 millions years ago. We are now in an inter glacial period.

A big concern is when we might hit a tipping point.  Most of the predictions we learn about are based on a linear projection.  It is very possible that the rate may dramatically increase as much carbon dioxide is trapped in permafrost that is melting.

 Immigration from the Global South will increase not only directly for climate change, but indirectly for fallen states.  It will get so bad that nations of the Global North will actually seal their borders by shooting any who try to cross.  Borders are going to get tougher and the pressure will grow because climate change will hit the Global South more harshly sooner,  even though they did not cause the problem.

Scientists conclude that lowering emissions alone will not be enough.  The longer there is delay the more expensive and/or risky will be any solutions.  Gwynne after interviewing over a hundred climate scientists shares that belief.  There are possible solutions.

Geo engineering is offering a variety of solutions.  It is hoped that emissions will be lowered enough (will take decades and maybe centuries) while geoengineering provides temporary and/or risky solutions.   There is some opposition to the idea of geoengineering, even amongst scientists.

 Some knowledge has been gained by massive volcanoes.  Strong enough to spew sulfur dioxide over vast areas scientists learned that sun rays were deflected enough to lower the  overall global temperature, without danger to nature, but only temporarily.  This has set up projects to launch sulfur dioxide or suitable alternatives to the atmosphere.  Not without great expense and likely encountering unexpected side effects.  There is the danger of widening ozone holes. 

There are many science projects, but we don't really know how they would work out.  Gwynne who has a military background examines many options.

No solution will be done quickly and we can expect to endure increased droughts, hurricanes and rising sea levels for several years with compounding effects. 

Mankind is supposed to understand co-operation, but the reality is that not only is there plenty of denial there is also plenty of disagreement over the best approach.  Global politics is in some ways a mess.  The author thinks it is likely that some states will fail because of food failures and others will lock themselves up.

Adapting will fail.  The voters on November 6th can demonstrate against climate denialists by how they vote.  It might be too much to expect denialists to lose in the hurricane ridings, but it would be positive if they gave a scare to politicians as that might create pressure to get the ball rolling in the right direction. 

Gwynne Dyer has has been a favored author.  Here are other blogs about him.

http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/04/gwynne-dyer.html

http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/06/war-as-explained-by-gwynne-dyer.html

http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/12/growing-pains-as-seen-by-gwynne-dyer.html

http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2023/04/the-shortest-history-of-war.html

The Shortest History of War

 Gwynne Dyer is a much respected analyst and writer of military affairs.  The ideas and understanding offered need to be understood by a wider audience and yes it is a matter of life and death for global civilization.

The purpose of this book is to illustrate how human nature (and technology, but really human nature) has led us to our current perilous state and how we can hope to extricate ourselves.

 He does pack in a lot of information, but is well written.  One useful tool is flow charts.

Aggression against outsiders has always been with us.  Evolution has favored the winners. Survival has required force and when you add in fear war seems inevitable.  Our nearest primate relatives the chimpanzees do organize to fight other groups of chimpanzees.

The first humans who organized into tribes were hunter-gatherers who tended to avoid conflict, but it is inevitable.  They tended to be egalitarian which helps to reduce wars.   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2014/07/selected.html

The agricultural era led to wars.  Some speculation that it might have been spurred by what might be termed "pastoralists" who were more mobile than farmers, but likely envied farmers in settlements who had goods that were envied and might be had with force.  This in turn led the farmer settlers to construct walls and later to develop soldiers.  The farmer settlers tended to be less equalitarian than hunter gatherers.

As settlements became larger and less equalitarian leaders developed who had interests that were opposed by leaders of other settlements.  Armies could be formed and/or mercenaries hired.  We follow the development of weapons and strategies.  A problem that probably was always there is that most soldiers are reluctant to kill. 

Dealing with that has been an ongoing problem that commanders have developed strategies to overcome.  One comes from training camps that isolate from regular social circle.  Psychology used to toughen up.   Patriots are better fighters as inspired by Napoleon.

Distancing your soldiers from the enemy lessened reluctance to kill.  Germans enacted aerial attacks on civilians and the English soon followed.  Air staff reported not even seeing the victims, just smoke and explosions.  Modern warfare has seen the increasing use of drones where those in control are often hundreds, even thousands of miles away.

Nuclear weapons change thinking.  Leaders realized whole cities could be wiped out, but doing so would invite retaliation which we learned could lead to a nuclear winter.  As the Soviet Union increased its arsenal and China jumped in the ingredients for civilization extinction were in place.  The big powers realized they could not attack one another without the risk of escalating.  Wars have continued, but never with the big powers against once another.  Perhaps the greatest danger is between Pakistan and India  as they are adjacent and hate each other.

The future is discouraging with nationalist sentiments very global, but Dyer feels we have made some progress and there is hope.  The League of Nations failed to stop World War II and leaders realized that stopping World War III was critical.  To get the cooperation of the main powers (in effect the winners of World War II) they offered a veto.  The United Nations has been able to provide troops to enforce ceasefires on a few occasions.  A World Court has managed to convict a few war criminals, but again the major powers have mostly refused to join, although frequently refer to them. 

Quoting the author:  "If the time has come to devise a different method of settling our disputes, it can done only with the cooperation of the world's governments, for it is the absolute independence of national governments that makes war possible.  Unfortunately mistrust reigns everywhere and nations seldom allow even the least of their interests to be decided by a collection of foreigners."

Many government and military leaders do support a greater platform for a world government, but elected politicians reading the will of voters are catering to the fears of people.  That is where the opportunity lies.  Rational self interest dictates we need a better way of mediating conflicts and restraining nationalist  sentiments.  It is a battle to get enough people to as Dyer suggests "accept a mutual recognition that we are all better off when we respect each other's rights and accept arbitration by a higher authority, instead of killing one another when our rights come into conflict."  A tough task but since hunter gatherer days we have gradually widened our acceptance of others from kin to tribe, to nation and so on.

Climate change (if not fear of nuclear disaster) may be the issue that encourages people to realize they really do have common interests.  We have always had common interests, but have let emotions stop us from working together.  There has been slow progress and we need to keep trying.

Before leaving I would like to defend Gwynne for some criticism he received for predicting Russia would not invade Ukraine.  He basically had pointed out how incredibly stupid an invasion would be.  He was right, it turned out to be incredibly stupid.  Putin was not stupid, but he let his egotism overcome his intelligence.  Dyer notes writing in March 2022 that he cannot predict how it will end, but suggests possible outcomes that may or may not advance his hopes.

An earlier book on war:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2021/12/war.html

 Another intelligent and relevant book by Gwynne:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/12/growing-pains-as-seen-by-gwynne-dyer.html

A personal appearance in Hamilton:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/04/gwynne-dyer.html

Books I remember from 2019

I read a lot, some people would say too much, but I would say not enough.  The books listed were discovered by reading other people's lists, hearing about it on radio or tv. or reading in a newspaper or magazine, a personal recommendation or sometimes even just wandering around the library.  If any of my selections catch your fancy my efforts have been worth while.  If not, I hope you move onto some other more inspiring list.

Fiction

"Washington Black"  (2018) by Esi Edugyan tells the story of an 11 year old black boy in Barbados who is taken in hand by inventor and abolitionist.  He travels around America with many adventures and revelations.  A thought provoking book.  







"Hypnotist" (2011) by Lars Kepler which is really a pseudonym of a Swedish husband and wife team.  I have found Scandinavian mystery writers to tell the most compelling stories and this is no exception.


"One Brother Shy" (2017) by Terry Fallis  winner of two Stephen Leacock Medal for Humour + one Canada Reads  He often writes about things he is familiar. I had forgotten that he is an identical twin and he has concocted an amusing train of events starting in the ever familiar Canadian capital Ottawa, but moving onto London and Moscow with lots of local references.  As an engineer his characters tend to gravitate around modern technology.  A new concept for me was "social license" which refers to the fact that having legal permission to do something doesn't mean that society approves.  You will laugh and be drawn into the narrative.


"Albatross"(2019) also by Terry Fallis presents the dilemma of should one do what they want or do what they are good at.  As usual very humorous and thought provoking.

James A Michener  has long been a favored novelist and this year I uncovered two unread books. "Reccessional"  was about a seniors building with lots of information (and some philosophy) and an interesting story.  "The Novel" was a fictional account of the process of writing a book that included editor, publicist, critic.  Some interesting insights--also set where Michener grew up among the Amish. (where some of my ancestors lived).

I had vowed never to read David Langercrantz, but I weakened "The Girl in the Spider's Web" (2014)   http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/08/guilty-pleasure-lisa-salander-and.html  

"The Children Act" (2014) by Ian McEwan.  Always has a deeper meaning forcing you to pay more attention.

"Mansfield Park" (1811) One wonders how she could understand psychology, but in all her books she delves into the mind of her characters.  Jane Austen

"Warlight" (2018) by Michael Ondaatje set in post war England.  Children are protected from those who might want revenge on their parents.  Recommended by reliable Facebook friend, Vijayakumar Mk Nair.

"The Deserter" (2019) by Nelson DeMille was the latest in a long line of enjoyable books, but this one was co-written with his son, Alex who is an experienced screen writer.  I find his books easy to read, although there is a lot of detail that lends credibility.  One interest to me was the setting of Venezuela.  A few years back my job put me in contact with some people from Venezuela including someone who worked engineering projects in Venezuela.  They were very critical of the government and I confess I thought they were being snobby and elitist.  Will also own up to my bias.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2012/05/tribute-to-nelson-demille-real-writer-i.html   In a conversation with a proud aunt, Nelson told her that she should not read certain sections (sexual) that he had to put in because they were expected.  His sense of humor comes through as much from unspoken thoughts as from dialogue.   The main character is always someone who breaks rules, is obssessed with sex and alcohol.  In this latest he presents criticisms of a secretive bureaucracy. Enjoyable reading that holds attention.

Non Fiction

"The Fifth Risk" (2018) by Michael Lewis was the first book completed in 2019  It is a book about Donald Trump (many were to follow) focusing on the transition and priorities.  They were unprepared for governing perhaps because it was unexpected.  As usual Lewis is apt at pinpointing causes of major problems. http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/01/the-fifth-risk-latest-from-michael-lewis.html

"Identity" (2018) by Francis Fukuyama helped clarify an issue prominent reading about politics.  Although I say clarify it also leads to questions.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/03/identity-new-force-in-modern-politics.html one of my more popular blogs.

"Educated" (2018) by Tara Westover highly recommended was not at all what I expected.  I imagined someone against all odds educating herself in fits and starts.  There is an element of that, but more so she lives though an unusual family dynamic that in some manner is the really crucial core of her education.  Breaking away from an unhealthy dysfunctional family to strive for rationality.







"Dark Sky Rising" (2019) by Henry Louis Gates Jr.  was written for young people, but is very useful to a better understanding of Reconstruction after the American Civil War.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/06/dark-sky-rising_18.html

"The Death of Truth" (2018) by Michiko Kakutani is one of many books on Donald Trump focusing on the importance of truth.  Good perspective.

"Farsighted" (2018) by Steven Johnson discusses the process of making complex decisions.  One example is the assassination of Osama bin Laden.  Also uses Charles Darwin with a couple of difficult decisions.  He thinks ahead to mankind's future decisions.

"The Attention Merchants" (2016 ) by Tim Wu is about the evolution of getting your attention mainly for the purposes of advertising.  From print to the inter-net.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/05/advertising-is-all-about-attention-have.html

"The 100 Year Marathon" (2015) by Michael Pillsbury is about Chinese intention to overcome humiliation.  They are portrayed as very duplicitous and determined.  One personal note was how the Chinese forced re-writing the script for "Gravity, " a movie I enjoyed.  The fictional explosion that precipitated the dilemma of the story was attributed to the Russians when in reality the Chinese are the only ones to have engineered an outer space explosion.  The rescue at the end was credited to the Chinese, when in fact only the Russians had the capability.  It seems Hollywood wanted the big audience in China.


"Becoming " (2019)  someone that caught my favorable attention during the initial presidential campaign.  Her life has been very interesting.  Supported by her family Michelle has overcome all sorts of barriers and has many worthy accomplishments on her own.  A very worthy First Lady and hopefully not finished her public service.

Dying of Whiteness (2019) by Jonathan M. Metzel  Heard about on a radio interview.  Hits at how the wealthy can subvert ordinary voters on social issues with racism a key factor.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/06/dying-of-whiteness.html

"House of Trump House of Putin" (2018) by Craig Unger provides interesting background about Trump's many links with Russian gangsters and Russian govt.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/06/house-of-trump-house-of-putin.htm

"Let Her Fly," (2018) by Ziauddin Yousafzai a book was promoted at the Hamilton Public Library with a visit from her father.  I ended up buying the book and consider it one of my most memorable experiences of the year.  Read more:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/06/let-her-fly.html


"The Future is Asian"  (2019) by Parag Khanna gives a worldview that is different, but possibly more accurate than what I am surrounded with.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/07/the-future-is-asia.html

"Don't Label Me" from Irshad Manji (2019) is an interesting book about identity. Irshad has overcome her fear of dogs.    http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/08/dont-label-me-is-for-everyone_11.html

Jared Diamond's, "Upheavel"  (2019) was one of the best of the year.  It was a case study set in six countries he has been connected to that illustrate changes and challenges in today;s world.    He uses a personal crisis with national crisis.  His insights are always worth considering.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/08/jared-diamond-examines-national-crises.html






"Supercooperators" (2011) by Martin A. Nowalk was a scientist demonstrating the role of co-operation plays with evolution.  the emphasis has usually been on the survival of the fittest meaning the most competitive individual or species.  We would not have achieved what we consider civilization if we did not develop the ability to co-operate.
http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/11/the-only-thing-that-will-redeem-mankind.html

"12 Rules for Life" (2018) by Jordan Peterson gave some guidance based on experience, psychology and philosophy.  As always there is good advice, some of which either reinforces some habits or even adopt.  For a history of my experiences with rules:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/12/an-antidote-to-chaos-series-of-rules.html

"Growing Pains" (2018) by Gwynne Dyer.  I am fortunate to read him in my local paper, but many of you may have easy access to him in one over hundred papers around the world. Gives the best insight into global politics as anyone.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2019/12/growing-pains-as-seen-by-gwynne-dyer.html

To see my best reads from 2018:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2018/12/my-favorite-books-of-2018.html

"Growing Pains" as seen by Gwynne Dyer

There are a lot of relevant examples of his points, but "Growing Pains" boils down to the main problem in the world is inequality and a possible solution is a Universal Basic Income."  This is very similar to a speaking session held at the Hamilton Public Library in 2017 at about the same time he was working on the
 book:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/04/gwynne-dyer.html

A focus was on Donald Trump who Gwynne sees like the canary in the coal mine.  How did this happen?  Where should we go from here?

After looking at many details he concludes Trump, better than anyone captured the frustration of many Americans.  He didn't address the real problems, but understood the anger.  As it happens he did not need to mobilize a majority, but tack on the disaffected to the regular Republican voters and even then needed help from the Electoral College and Russians.

Of all the major industrial nations United States has the greatest degree of inequality. They are also the only one of this group not to have a national health plan.  Like all nations they have been increasing automation which is a major factor in inequality as while productivity has increased the gains have been distributed to the already wealthy. 

Brexit and U.S election were at least partially decided by fears of immigration.  Dyer points out those areas with the greatest percentage of immigrants voted to stay in the EU or to the Democrats whereas those with the least percentage of immigrants feared it the most and voted to leave the EU or voted for the Republicans.

Another area of global concern was North Korea and Iran's involvement with nuclear weapons.  Gwynne who has a military background maintains that neither country is a threat to America, but each is concerned with their neighbors. Iran borders a nuclear nation, Pakistan and also with Iraq who at one time also had a nuclear weapons program.  They also fear Saudi Arabia and the United States.  North Korea is concerned by China and more directly American involvement in South Korea.  Gwynne feels both nations realize if they initiated a nuclear attack they would be obliterated. 

No solution that ignores human nature would be effective.  Dyer consulted with Franz de Waal, a famous specialist in primates.  They are studying primate behavior and noting that all primates, excluding humans are inequal, authoritarian and prone to violence.  In some ways not a lot different than modern man.  However it seems likely that hunter-gatherers, who predated organized agriculture were grouped in numbers between 100 to 200 with everyone knowing everyone.  It is believed that they were able to be equalitarian.  Ambitious members were held in check limiting their power to specific expertise.

As with dozens of books I have read the big change comes with the development of agriculture  For the first time humans gathered in thousands and even up to millions.  There was no check on ambitions and men (not likely women) were able to develop a hierarchy which means inequality got started.

What helped democracy develop in western nations was improved communications with an early breakthrough was with the Gutenberg printing press.  Ideas were no longer exclusively coming from the top, but spread more evenly.  In the United States they achieved the highest rate of literacy.  Thomas Paine published in 1776 a pamphlet, "Common Sense" which sold 120,000 copies within 3 months and likely read by at least a million people with a total population of about 2.4 million.

After WWII the Keynesian economic model worked well allowing the economy to be increase while decreasing inequality.  In the 1970's under the leadership of Ronald Reagan the economic models shifted to Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman with a concern about inflation.  Productivity gain profits also started to shift to the top10%.

When we get to the 2016 election, Trump was not the only one to attract attention to frustrated voters, but Bernie Sanders was not successful in the Democratic primaries.  Previously most of the time the winning candidate would get most of the votes of their rivals, but in this case many Sanders supporters in the rust belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania chose Trump instead of Hillary helping with the margin of the Trump victory.  It is also estimated that Trump got free $5 billion worth of coverage by being newsworthy.  

The Universal Basic Income is a possible solution.  One of the problems with a basic income program or  other welfare measures is  they convey stigmatization.  Those receiving income feel humiliation and in truth the rest of us tend to look down on them.   Make it universal with billionaires also receiving it makes it more acceptable and easier to administer.  For those who have other income it may well raise them to higher tax bracket and that would help pay for it, even without raising tax rates.   Studies with limited examples have demonstrated there is minimal reduction in willingness to work.

Gwynne also discusses the possible loss of meaning that comes from not working.  He points out that many people do not work right now and have found activities to fill in the missing work time.  He acknowledges that some of them might be drinking more beer and/or watching more television.   In the past society has accepted leisure activities of the rich, but not so for the poor.  Our attitudes towards leisure may take time to change, but Gwynne feels there will be improvements over time.

There can be adjustments to allow for cost of living in different geographic areas, disabilities, children, etc.  Gwynne recognizes that the idea might not work but it needs to be tested and if found insufficient, alternatives need to be found.

Automation will ensure a very high unemployment rate which will result in either a major redistribution of income or a revolution.  High unemployment also means consumption will decrease further economic stress.

Gwynne Dyer writes about important matters in an easy to understand format including a few laughs along the way.  One quote from the author:  "History is not cyclical.  There is such a thing as progress."  If you are not fortunate enough to have access to one of the over 100 newspapers with Gwynne's twice weekly column you can catch up at his web site:  http://www.gwynnedyer.com

2017 Another year to remember

The main purpose of the year end blog is to savour all the good times.  It might seem strange to start off with some obituaries, but it is my way of remembering people who impacted my life in a positive manner.

Katherine Finn, mother to Barry Finn, and a former boss of mine.  She was a peacemaker and an animal lover  After we had parted company (she played no role in that) I was very stunned at a surprise 60th birthday party I received a well thought out gift--ironically a book from Stuart McLean.  She will be missed.  Her obituary https://obittree.com/obituary/ca/ontario/caledonia/miller-funeral-chapel-limited/katherine-finn/2947954/

Stuart McLean is someone I remember listening to on the radio.  At first as a guest on Peter Gzowski's show.  In the beginning he seemed to be telling funny stories, but in a way that made them funnier.  Later I caught onto the Vinyl Cafe.  Once I was able to attend one of his traveling shows when it hit Hamilton Place.  Another thing from the radio and this one live appearance was that he was always trying to give new talent a chance.  He first encountered the female singing duo, Dalla when they were busking.

Glen Campbell died after suffering Alzheimer's  I am not much of a country music fan, but I spent my last two years of high school in a rural area and more critically went to the University of Guelph with a heavy contingent of Aggies, some of whom became friends and it was a Sunday nite ritual to watch Glen.  It was impossible not to enjoy him.


Around the Bay Race 5 km.  Sharon with the encouragement of our son has taken a liking to running.  This year OKD sponsored a team and she joined.   8 minutes from back of the pack to the starting line

Gwynne Dyer, my favourite newspaper columnist was at Hamilton Public Library see:
http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/04/gwynne-dyer.html


I missed most of Doors Open Hamilton because of time conflicts.  A highlight I did manage to see was the Digital Canaries Film Studio.  They provided sets for tv shows and movies.  They had a mock White House for interviews.  Also mock court room, jail cells, hospital rooms, etc.

Michael and Haley visited us from New Zealand.   Michael made several out of town visits with Haley to show some of the more interesting points in Ontario (and New York and Washington).  We had several family gatherings.  One of the hi-lites for me was provided by my daughter Heather when as a part of a family dinner she included a marshmallow roast. Another pleasant surprise was a meal prepared by Michael and Hayley to thank their hosts.

MM Robinson Get Together is getting to be an enjoyable routine.  7 members turned 65 this year and decided to celebrate together.  Guests came from South Carolina, Washington State and different parts of Ontario

Super crawl was mostly (not entirely)missed because of a prior commitment, but was as busy as ever.

Took in "A Few Good Men" at Theatre Aquarius

The AGH BMO Film Fesitval--watched the trailer show and one film, "Lady MacBeth."






My Superwalk for Parkinson's Canada was a little more successful (thanks to some Facebook friends).  I had my photo taken by a fountain in Gage Park that an old friend Don Heroux had done some fundraising for.



 

The Royal Winter Fair provided a moment I cherish.  Several years ago I met Shelley Peterson in Collingwood when she was just launching her writing career with a young adult novel for horse riders.  Not much contact in the meantime, but it turned out she had written the tenth novel in the series and was launching it at the Royal.  I came down to take a photo for The Rider.  First I had a brief chat with her husband David, former Premier of Ontario.  When she first saw me she remembered we had met in Collingwood ten years ago.


We decided to visit Michael for the Christmas holidays.  Getting used to a southern hemisphere holiday meant a bit of an adjustment.  Just so, New Zealand is such a beautiful country and we were fortunate Michael wanted to show it off and Haley was very supportive.  It is beautiful (and warm).  Lots of highlights, both natural and man-made.  Read more at:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2018/01/ending-2017-in-new-zealand.html

Instead of hosting a New Years Eve party (a tradition of 20 some odd years) we enjoyed the music and fireworks at Sky City in Auckland.

Restaurants--  In case anyone visits Hamilton these are a few of my favourite restaurants that I enjoyed.  Limoncello on Ottawa St.,   Gate of India, Wild Orchid, Lake Road, and further down James St S  Wass with Ethiopian cuisine and Bar on Lock.  A new one for me was Spring Grill, a Korean restaurant on Upper James.

In New Zealand in one day two restaurants highly recommend:  In Tauranga we tried Thai Thani2 and were pleased with both the service and the food.  A few hours later we were at Kumar's in Paeroa and were struck with the service and the food.  Musashi in Milford and Portofino in Howick were both delicious and had really good service.

Watching movies are one my favourite activities. http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/12/2017-great-year-for-movies.html

 
Books take more energy, but also can give a good reward.   Here are some my favourites for the year:  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/12/enjoyable-reads-from-2017.html

My two most popular blog posts were book reviews.  http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/02/underground-airlines.html
http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/02/white-trash.html

This post was delayed while I finished my vacation in New Zealand (more on that next year and with a separate post. http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2018/01/ending-2017-in-new-zealand.html  Much thanks to Chelsea Rolph taking care of our house and more importantly Oscar and Izzy.

You can read my year end review from last year.  
http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/01/looking-back-on-2016.html

War as explained by Gwynne Dyer

A few weeks ago I was able to listen to Gwynne at my local library http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/04/gwynne-dyer.html   His talk inspired me to read one of his earlier books (based on a tv series), "War."

War seems like a natural part of human history.  All our history seems to revolve around wars with the winners telling the stories.  Gwynne goes beyond recorded history to start his account.

Studies done in World War II and further back to the American Civil War revealed a strange thing in that most soldiers did not fire their guns to kill.  Up until recently most soldiers were trained how to use weapons and obey orders, but little attention focused on motivating them to actually kill.  That has changed and Dyer gives the example of marine basic training.

War as we know was not natural for hunter gatherers who often kept away from contested areas and even needed other groups for intermarriage.  When conflicts occurred (sometimes a result of famine or drought) humans learned that aggressiveness paid off resulting in more resources including mating which in turn led to more aggressiveness.

When historical forces resulted in cities, conflicts became more common.  To reinforce the need to kill one early development was the phalanx, originating in Mesopotamia.  It was with soldiers lined up in rows with the back rows pushing forward.  The Romans perfected this strategy and conquered much of the known world.

Tactics didn't change much, although many elements were added.  Horses were effective and had been bred to carry heavier loads.  They could be counteracted, and even elephants as well.  The big development was with guns preceded by bows and arrows.  They killed at a distance.  A little before WW I one response to guns was trenches.  They effectively stalled forward movement.  Airplanes first used in WW I were used for reconnaissance, and bombing.

A strategy developed to cut off supplies meaning that cities and civilians would be attacked.  Previously one's fate was decided on the battlefield, but non combatants became targets.

World War II ushered in the nuclear age.  The Germans had previously used V2 rockets to inflict danger from a distance.  It was possible to kill people without being consciously aware of them as humans.  The nuclear option obviously changed ideas.  The great powers realized if they used them against other great powers it would be the end for all.  Conventional wars were generally involving lesser powers.

Dwight Eisenhower warned about the power and influence of the military industrial complex. Ammunition and weapons manufacturing have been politically powerful and naturally identify enemies to cause fear.

Dyer discusses guerrilla wars that can only succeed when there is political will behind them.  Two successful examples are Mao Tse Tung and Fidel Castro.  Terrorists do what they do because they cannot mount an army.

The book was revised in 2004, so does not cover drones or ISIL.  Gwynne has been keeping up with developments and thinks the dynamics have not changed critically.

Dyer sees some hope after a case study of baboons in Kenya using a quote from Frans de Waal., "The good news for humans is that it looks like once established peaceful conditions can be maintained.  And if baboons can do it why not us?"  It seems over twenty years ago the leaders of one baboon group, very aggressive and belligerent to females and lesser males claimed exclusivity over a dump that contained poisonous food resulting in their deaths.  Anthropologists studying the result over the years noted that the surviving baboons did not pick up the aggressiveness and belligerency of their predecessors and managed to live in peace.

The author traces the problem to the beginning of civilization.  Prior to that hunter-gatherers lived in small groups that were relatively equalitarian,  It is only when agriculture allowed humans to live in one place and to greatly increase their numbers that top down decisions became common.  This began power struggles that escalated to nation states contesting one another on a wide variety of issues.

Dyer identifies three trends that will demand global attention.  Climate change if not checked will accelerate and cross all borders.  New nations will rise in power for example China, India, Korea and Brazil questioning the old order.  And third, technology will advance beyond the nuclear threat.

Quoting: "the rising powers must be absorbed into a system that emphasizes co-operation and makes room for them, rather than one one that deals in confrontation and raw military power.  If they are obliged to play the traditional great power game of winners and losers then history will repeat itself and everyone loses."  Military concerns take attention from climate change.  Multi lateral systems must survive or we won't.

The United Nations is certainly imperfect, but it is the best tool we have.  The League of Nations was a first step, but founders afraid of being too restricted.  The United Nations was formed with a more realistic format, but still faces a long path to world wide peace.  Progress will be uneven.

Nuclear weapons still attract insecure nations and the more widespread the more likely a problem.  Still some nations have rejected including Canada, Japan, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland.  A few others have pulled back such as Argentina, Brazil and more recently Libya.

There are a lot of details with many historical examples to ponder.  Dyer, even today is fairly optimistic.  The critical factor now is mass communications.  People at all levels are more aware of world news.

To be well informed about international dynamics you really should read his weekly columns and if you do not have access to the over 100 newspapers you can catch up at his website, http://gwynnedyer.com

Gwynne Dyer

Last nite was a special unexpected treat for me.  Gwynne Dyer is my favourite newspaper columnist and I don't say that as an isolated newspaper reader.  I enjoy the columnists for the New York Times and Washington Post amongst others, but Gwynne has impressed me the most.  Somehow he appeared at my local library, Hamilton Public Library.  He did not disappoint.

Trying to figure out what makes him different, the library CEO explained his interest came from noticing the mainstream news did not cover the developing world in any depth, except Gwynne Dyer did.  Although he has a very strong military background (has taught at military colleges and traveled more than most) he has an awareness of political dynamics that is well beyond most.  That also means he understands human dynamics.  The first of the so-called political pundits who recognized the seriousness of climate change.  As a fellow Canadian he realized that although the Western world was dominant it wasn't the only factor in the global affairs.

The topic was Donald Trump, a subject that seems to be on everyone's mind.  Gwynne admitted several times he didn't like him and originally, back in November thought Americans could not be that dumb.  Based in London he also thought the Brits would not be dumb enough to exit the EU.   After interviewing countless people he has evolved his thinking to the point that he thinks Donald Trump might be the wake up call needed.

One difference he explained was that immigration was a  bigger issue in Britain as they were not as used to immigrants unlike United States (and Canada) where most of us are at best a few generations from immigrants ourselves.  Ironically where immigrants are well established in the big cities there was not a strong backlash against them, but in other areas they were one of the key factors.

In America a more serious problem was jobs.  He said official stats are misleading, the true unemployment is much higher in the United States.  The problem is not only one of finance, but also of humiliation.  It is easy to blame outsourcing and immigrants, but Gwynne maintains by far the bigger factor is automation and it will continue to get worse.  Unless something is done he sees anger deciding elections.  The anger could result in someone worse than Donald Trump who he sees like a canary in the coal mine.  One bit of humour (of many instances) was that in twenty years something like 50% of jobs will fall to automation.  He suggested that pole dancing would not.

One possible solution to the dilemma is a universal basic income.  The world is not ready just yet.  He related an experience in Switzerland where the attempt through a referendum failed, was explained as a necessary first step.  He thinks that since the election more people are talking about universal basic income.

His speech was relatively short, but the question period was very interesting.  He handled it brilliantly, giving people a chance to speak their mind.  Korea, Syria were covered with realistic answers.  One of the organizers had to help close the questions or I suspect he would have carried on.

One guest recalled  a talk given at Sir Wilfred Laurier University around 1996 and asked if he had changed his mind.  First he joked that he thought he had had everyone at that talk killed.  He admitted that he might have changed a bit, but that most of his core beliefs are the same

Another guest asked about how inequality is increasing and he foresees that mankind will revert to what most of its history with dictators ruling over the poor masses.  Gwyne reverted back to hunter-gatherer days when there was much more equality, but then when mankind got civilized  more decisions were made top down, because there was relatively poor communication.  The great salvation today is that  there is mass communication.

On another question he commented that the right contained some smart rich people (the ones who earned their money, not those who inherited it) who could easily see that for them to be rich they need customers and they need to avoid a revolution.   One of the big concerns about Universal basic income is if those receiving it will be motivated to do the still necessary work.  He mentioned that  Hamilton is one of three Ontario cities  that will experiment among poor and will help determine a future course.

Gwynne felt that one of the best hopes for the future was international alliances.  One factor with the formation of the EU was to avoid future wars among the European powers and it worked with many other benefits.  Recent developments have restored some of his faith after the Brexit  and Trump disasters.  The United Nations has also been successful in avoiding wars between the big powers.

He also suggested we should encourage Michelle Obama to run for president in 2020.

I met some good friends, Rob and  Sue and learned we have something in common.  Gwynne's column is the first thing they look for in the local paper.

If you are not accessible to one of the 100 or so newspapers around the world that carry his twice weekly columns you can check him out at his webiste:  http://gwynnedyer.com

Inspired by this meeting I read one of his books and for some further insight you can read my review,
http://www.therealjohndavidson.com/2017/06/war-as-explained-by-gwynne-dyer.html